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昇兴股份(002752):海外业务增长稳健 静待行业供需拐点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 06:37
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in profitability despite growth in overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 147 million yuan, a decrease of 36.93% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.603 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 51.37% to 54 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 10.34% and 4.57%, respectively, down 4.38 and 2.68 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The company reported domestic and overseas revenues of 2.746 billion yuan and 479 million yuan, respectively, with overseas revenue growing by 12.32% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas gross margin increased by 1.78 percentage points to 24.68%, highlighting the importance of international markets as a growth engine [1]. - The company is actively pursuing global expansion, with production trials at its Indonesian factory and the initiation of production line construction in Vietnam [1]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the metal packaging industry, with an expected increase in profitability for leading firms as market concentration rises [2]. - The company has announced a dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 20% of its distributable profits as cash dividends when conditions are met [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 7.168 billion, 7.715 billion, and 8.385 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in expectations for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The projected net profit for the same period is revised to 398 million, 473 million, and 579 million yuan, indicating a decrease in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [3].
昇兴股份(002752):海外业务增长稳健,静待行业供需拐点
Huafu Securities· 2025-08-28 05:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving 3.76% growth in Q2, but faced a significant decline in net profit, down 51.37% year-on-year in the same quarter [3][6]. - The overseas business has become a core growth engine, with international revenue increasing by 12.32% year-on-year, while domestic revenue saw a slight decline [5]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint, with production trials in Indonesia and the initiation of production line construction in Vietnam, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 147 million yuan, a decrease of 36.93% [3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 10.34%, down 4.38 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to weak supply-demand dynamics and intensified competition in the industry [6]. - The company has committed to a dividend policy, ensuring that cash dividends will be no less than 20% of the distributable profits when conditions are met [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are set at 7.168 billion yuan, 7.715 billion yuan, and 8.385 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 1%, 8%, and 9% [6][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 398 million yuan, 473 million yuan, and 579 million yuan, with a projected decline of 6% in 2025, followed by growth of 19% and 22% in the subsequent years [6][8].