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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20251215
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 02:09
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Gold: Interest rates were cut as expected [2][4]. - Silver: Adjusting at a high level [2][4]. - Copper: The long - term driving logic remains, and the price decline is limited [2][8]. - Zinc: Domestic inventory is continuously decreasing [2][11]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][16]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic disturbances are increasing [2][19]. - Alumina: Continuously monitor production capacity cuts [2][19]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Fluctuating at a high level [2][19]. - Platinum: Breaking through the previous high and starting to make up for lost ground [2][22]. - Palladium: ETF holdings have increased significantly, and it is expected to hit the previous high [2][22]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, and attention should be paid to policy risks in Indonesia [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level [2][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of various gold products such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, etc. showed different degrees of increase, and trading volumes and positions also changed. ETF and inventory data also had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: Trump prefers to appoint Warsh or Hassett as the Fed Chairman; China's November new social financing, new RMB loans, and M2 - M1 scissors - gap data are released; multiple Chinese ministries respond to the Central Economic Work Conference [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [7]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and other products had significant price fluctuations, and trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventory data also changed [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper had different trends, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads all changed. China's November copper - related import data and Chile's copper - related export and production data are released [8][10]. - **News**: The Chinese central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools; Trump hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year; the US is negotiating to provide over $1 billion for key mineral and railway projects in Central Africa [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [10]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc changed, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **News**: Three Chinese ministries will strengthen business - finance cooperation to boost consumption [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Strongly bullish [11]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead decreased slightly, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads all changed [14]. - **News**: The Chinese central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools; Trump hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [14]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin showed different trends, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads all changed. Spot and industrial chain prices also increased [16]. - **News**: Trump prefers to appoint Warsh or Hassett as the Fed Chairman; China's November new social financing, new RMB loans, and M2 - M1 scissors - gap data are released; multiple Chinese ministries respond to the Central Economic Work Conference [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all changed. Data on related premiums, processing fees, and corporate profits are also updated [19]. - **News**: Global monetary policy is at a critical turning point; the Fed's asset - liability purchase may push up inflation in 2026 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum is neutral, Alumina is bearish, and Cast Aluminum Alloy is neutral [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium products increased, and trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and price spreads all changed [22]. - **News**: Multiple international events such as the US - Mexico water resource agreement and Zelensky's decision to abandon NATO membership are reported [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are strongly bullish [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel had different trends, and industrial chain - related prices, profits, and spreads all changed [26]. - **News**: There are multiple events in Indonesia related to nickel production, including government sanctions, policy changes, and production restrictions. The Fed has dovish remarks, and China will implement export license management for some steel products [26][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are neutral [30].