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碳酸锂:驱动明牌,基差走弱,关注上方压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 11:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly but face pressure at the upper level. The driving factors for the upward breakthrough of lithium carbonate prices mainly come from three aspects: strong energy storage demand that can last until the first quarter of next year, continuous warehouse receipt cancellation, high apparent consumption and high destocking, and the fact that the resumption of mines is less than expected and one - time fees need to be paid, which falsifies the previous upper - level suppression. The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended for inter - period trading, and it is suggested to increase the proportion of selling hedging and build positions in a pyramid shape [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Price Trend - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts was strong, breaking through 80,000 yuan/ton. The 2511 contract closed at 78,920 yuan/ton, up 3,220 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2601 contract closed at 79,520 yuan/ton, up 3,740 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 2,050 yuan/ton week - on - week to 75,400 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2511 contract) fell 1,170 yuan/ton to - 3,520 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 340 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2511 - 2601 contracts was - 600 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons compared with last week to 130,366 tons. The destocking speed increased in October, and the apparent consumption was in a growing state. The speed of futures warehouse receipt inventory slowed down significantly, and the expected recipient changed from downstream to traders [2]. Supply - The weekly output and operating rate of lithium carbonate reached new highs again. The weekly output reached 21,308 tons, and the operating rate was 55.2%. The biggest variable this week was that the market expectation of the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo was lower than expected [2]. Demand - The energy storage market expectation was strong. Downstream cathode and battery manufacturers had high enthusiasm for spot procurement, and the willingness for physical delivery on the futures market was low. The price of 6F continued to rise to 93,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of cathode materials and batteries continued to rise [2]. 3. Outlook Unilateral - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure at the upper level. The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton [3]. Inter - period - Not recommended. The upward movement of the unilateral price weakens the basis, but the inventory is expected to continue to be destocked [4]. Hedging - It is recommended to increase the proportion of selling hedging and build positions in a pyramid shape [4].