商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：抢出口预期驱动，关注大幅上涨后终端需 求变化 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 期货研究 2026 年 1 月 13 日 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 146,000 | 7,300 | 19,000 | 24,460 | 55,000 | 73,140 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 5 0 | -281 | -2,756 | -33,329 | -55,334 | -80,709 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 2,351 | -23 | -4,709 | -24,141 | -148,309 | -173,327 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价） | 156,060 | ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者胡雅文 北京报道 2026年开市6天，碳酸锂的"开门红"震惊市场，单吨价格冲破14万元，较2025年年终的11.79万元/吨高出 2.21万元/吨，上涨19%。自12月初以来，碳酸锂价格势如破竹，短短一个月内接连突破10万元、11万 元、12万元、13万元和14万元5大关卡。 碳酸锂开年大涨 2026年开年，碳酸锂单吨价格突破14万元大关。上海钢联数据显示，1月4日至1月9日，优质级碳酸锂均 价连续攀升，单吨价格分别为11.79万元、12.54万元、13.42万元、13.92万元、13.94万元、14.02万元， 短短6天累计上涨2.21万元，多日的单日涨幅达数千元，涨势凌厉。 这波"开门红"并非孤立行情，而是延续了2025年12月的陡峭上行趋势。彼时，碳酸锂价格自9万元/吨出 头启动，在12月份连破10万元、11万元和12万元三道关口，一路飙升至12.39万元/吨的年度高点。尽管 最后3日有所回调，2025年最终仍以11.79万元/吨收官。 从9万元/吨涨到14万元/吨，碳酸锂为什么这么猛？从基本面来看，郑晓强告诉记者，"本轮价格上涨是 供应扰动叠加下游需求爆发 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 碳酸锂市场周报 刚需采买降库放缓，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+17.69%，振幅21.15%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价143420元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，商务部等九部门联合发文实施绿色消费推进行动，从丰富绿色产品供给、提升绿色服务消费、 创新绿色消费模式等7方面20条具体举措。支持消费者购买新能源汽车。基本面原料端，锂矿报价随着碳酸锂价格不 断走高，由于碳酸锂盘面价格较优，或存在一定套保空间，令原料成交情况有所转好。供给端，由于盘面套保空间存 在，冶炼厂参与后或将保持较为积极的生产状态，国内供给量保持小幅提升态势。需求端，下游电池正极材料厂对当 下高价锂心里接受度普遍较低，采购策略多以刚需采买为主，故市场观望情绪仍较浓，相对谨慎。整体来看，碳酸锂 基本面或处于供给小增、需求谨慎的阶段，产业库存较上周基本持 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 陈宇森 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 2026/01/08 贵金属与新能源研究中心 据来源: SMM,公升新闻整理 锂化合物 140000 平均价 SMM电池级碳酸锂 133500 6000 3000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 130000 5750 2500 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 2000 碳酸锂2601 139960 5.52% 碳酸锂2602 139560 4. 95% 60000 碳酸锂2603 5.01% 140000 1000 碳酸锂2604 141360 5.13% 500 20000 碳酸锂2605 4.54% 142300 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1770 130 4-6 2 9 7 (Li20:5.5%-6%) 种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 132339 H 利 tt 江 -694 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 123199 外购锂云母精矿利润 5161 行业 12月25日晚，湖南裕能，万润新能公告拟对部分产线就产检修。湖南裕能 ...

Group 1: Aluminum - The price of alumina remains stable at 2685 yuan/ton, with metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity reaching 88.689 million tons/year and a weekly operating rate increase of 0.55 percentage points to 80.39% [1][3] - The short-term supply-demand fundamentals for alumina continue to show an oversupply, with inventories accumulating and spot prices remaining weak [1][3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices increased by 1.59% to 22,700 yuan/ton, while London aluminum prices rose by 1.79% to 3,010 USD/ton, with electrolytic aluminum margins increasing by 7.18% to 6,862 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations after reaching historical highs, with weekly changes in London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper prices being +2.39%, -0.49%, and -2.62% respectively [2] - Domestic copper inventories saw a significant accumulation, with social inventories of electrolytic copper at 238,900 tons, a 23.40% increase [2] - The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions [2] Group 3: Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 5.90% to 118,500 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton, indicating a positive trend in lithium prices [4] - The supply of lithium carbonate increased by 1.2% to 22,400 tons, with SMM weekly inventory decreasing by 0.2% to 109,600 tons, marking 20 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4] - The demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in lithium demand despite seasonal trends [4] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt increasing by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rising by 10.11% to 490,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may affect the supply chain in the near future [5] - The structural tightness in cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, supporting the outlook for rising cobalt prices [5]

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 4 日 碳酸锂：基本面季节性走弱，远期需求向好逻 辑强化 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 刘鸿儒 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 liuhongru028781@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：高位回调，基差回归 供需基本面：以旧换新政策支撑动力需求，淡季需求减量幅度仍存不确定性 政策：2026 年汽车以旧换新政策下发，报废旧车并购买新能源车，按新车销售价格的 12%给予补贴， 最高不超过 2 万元；置换新能源车，按新车销售价格的 8%补贴，最高不超过 1.5 万元。 供给：国内周度碳酸锂产量 22420 吨，较上周小幅增加 259 吨。原料方面，锂矿现货流通库存陆续到 港，贸易商港口现货小幅累库。 需求：近期多家正极材料厂商相继宣布检修。若按照计划检修，铁锂正极 1 月排产环减 13.2%，三元 正极小幅环减 1.3%；铁锂电芯环减 4.8%，三元电芯环减 9%。终端方面，12 月 1-28 日，全国乘用车新能 源车市场零售 119.2 万辆，同比增长 5%，环比增长 1%；1 ...

商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支 | | | | | 撑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 119,540 | 1,560 | 1,100 | 20,800 | 24,900 | 45,500 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 9,368 | -9,570 | -13,025 | -14,434 | -133,899 | -72,552 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported by stable supply growth and good demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position, bullish - biased strategy while controlling risks and paying attention to trading rhythm [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile and slightly upward trend on the weekly chart, with a price increase of +17.16% and an amplitude of 19.75%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 130,520 yuan/ton [7] - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, suggesting to give full play to the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the social comprehensive financing cost to remain at a low level [7] - **Fundamentals** - **Raw Materials**: Affected by the continuously strong price of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium ore has gradually increased. Driven by good profits, smelters still have a certain willingness to purchase and stockpile [7] - **Supply**: Lithium salt plants are actively producing, and with sufficient raw materials, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate has maintained a stable growth trend [7] - **Demand**: The purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers has become more cautious due to the high price of lithium carbonate. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand and long - term contracts. However, due to the strong demand in the downstream new energy vehicle and energy storage industries, the demand for lithium carbonate is good [7] - **Inventory**: Industrial inventory has been continuously depleted, and industry expectations are positive [7] - **Viewpoint**: Trade with a light - position, bullish - biased strategy and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has shown a volatile upward trend. As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19,120 yuan/ton [7][8] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased. As of December 26, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 111,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14,250 yuan/ton [17] - **Basis**: As of December 26, 2025, the basis of the main contract was - 18,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,870 yuan/ton [17] 3.3 Industrial Situation - **Upstream Market** - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) has strengthened. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 1,410 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 US dollars/ton [21] - **Lithium Mica**: The price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) has increased. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 5,163 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 762 yuan/ton [26] - **Phospho - Lithium - Alumina Stone**: As of December 26, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - alumina stone was 13,525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,725 yuan/ton [26] - **Supply Side** - **Imports and Exports**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons from October, a decline of 7.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons from October, an increase of 208.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32] - **Production**: As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,980 tons, an increase of 2,450 tons from October, an increase of 4.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 55.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32] - **Downstream Demand** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The quotation of hexafluorophosphate lithium has remained flat. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 180,000 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons from October, an increase of 5.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [33][35] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price of lithium iron phosphate has increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 45,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 268,890 tons, an increase of 2,010 tons from October, an increase of 0.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.43%. The monthly operating rate was 63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% [36][38] - **Ternary Materials**: The price of ternary materials has increased, but the output has decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,520 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from October, a decline of 0.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.65%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [41][43] - **Lithium Manganate**: The price of lithium manganate has increased, but the monthly output has decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,210 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from October, a decline of 0.87%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.67%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 45,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 yuan/ton [44][48] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The quotation of lithium cobaltate has increased, and the monthly output has also increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 369,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 16,050 tons, an increase of 260 tons from October, an increase of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 111.74% [49][51] - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [52][53] - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [56][58] - **Options Market**: According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [59][61]

产业与第三方意见分歧，碳酸锂后期阻力或将增大 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 孙皓 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月25日，碳酸锂主力合约小幅回落至123520 元/吨，较前一日下跌1200元/吨，跌幅0.96%。基差走强至-17720元/吨， 较前一日上升2200元/吨，涨幅11.04%。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量显著收缩至607187手，较前一日减少40179手，降幅 6.21%；成交量小幅收缩至924823手，较前一日下降24183手，降幅2.55%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格大幅走高至12330元/吨，较前一日上涨9.89%； 锂云母精矿价格小幅上扬至5975元/吨，涨幅1.88%。产能利用率稳定在 83.52%。新疆有色集团10万吨锂盐项目进展可能增加长期供给，但当前原 料成本上涨推高生产成本，上游锂盐厂以保长协为主，散单成交稀少。 需求端 ：下游产品价格普遍上行，动力型三元材料上涨0.88%至149300元/ 吨，动力型磷酸铁锂上涨2.0%至42045元/吨。新能源汽车零售销量同比增 长1%，渗透率达60.6%，但批发同比下降10%，显示需求分化。电芯价格受 ...

利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 111460 利 生产 王 -8002 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 109946 外购锂云母精矿利润 -9014 、宁德时代宜春视下窝锂矿预计春节前后复产。界面新闻据接近宁德时代 (300750 SZ) 人士处获悉，宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司的宜丰县圳 里-奉新县视下窝锂矿采矿项目，预计于春节前后复产。今年8月，宁德时代在投资者互动平台透露，宜春视下窝锂矿项目在采矿许可证8月9 行 小 日到期后暂停了开采作业。11月，江西省自然资源厅矿业权管理处对江视下窝锂矿采矿权出让收益评估报告、评估报告主要参数表、承诺书进 行了公示。12月19日，江西省宜春招标网发布了该项目的环境影响评价第一次环评信息公示。 2、天齐锂业自2026年1月1日起，所有产品现货交易结算价将不再参考SMM价格,调整为以下两种定价方式之一，由贵司选择: (1) 上海钢联优 质电池级碳酸锂和电池级氢氧化锂(粗颗粒)价格; (2) 广州期货交易所碳酸锂主力合约价格。 H 供给端，视下窝复产时间晚于早先市场预期，叠加国务院安委办严打盗采矿产资源，暗示短期内供给端较难大幅扩张、需求端，市场对下游1 ...