此外，化工反内卷方向多细分产品涨价，机构建议珍惜化工行业的回调机会，大炼化等反内卷板块仍然 处在相对底部，且景气度在逐步提升。 化工今日出现回调，主要系锂电材料相关个股下跌。消息面上，主要系6F板块多氟多，天际业绩一 般，市场传碳酸锂、6F等原材料涨价传导不顺。 针对回调，机构指出三点： 1、有观点认为涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，最终演绎的结果是量价齐升，中上游向下游电站要利 润，全产业链通胀。 2、产能刚性环节的价格是需求的风向标，最终价格回落是由于产能投放而非需求萎缩。 3、股价层面：底部估值抬升之后，市场可能会对需求产生怀疑导致板块阶段性纠结，但最终因产业链 量价齐升股价同步跟随，价格弹性大的环节表现最优。 2026-2028年，储能需求爆发将推动锂电供需彻底反转，产业链价格将进入通胀周期，大部分盈利也将 从电站环节流入中上游制造业和矿业，其中产能释放刚性的碳酸锂环节将成为有望复刻光伏硅料行情， 其他环节则会同样受益于产业链温和通胀和价格顺导，利润有望逐步修复。 px库存当前处于近三年低位，px26年四季度前无新增产能投放，pta26年全年无新增产能，且PX/PTA产 品价格价差均处于历史低位水平，有 ...

Group 1 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a new growth cycle, with major manufacturers starting large-scale equipment tenders and receiving hundreds of GWh in orders, indicating a strong demand outlook [1] - By 2026, the total new lithium battery production capacity is expected to exceed 1 TWh, with many equipment manufacturers anticipating record-high new orders [1] - Major manufacturers are securing substantial orders for materials and new production capacities, mirroring strategies from the 2020-2021 period, with expectations of significant demand growth over the next few years [1] Group 2 - CATL is expected to enhance its market share in the lithium battery sector by 2026, particularly in the energy storage segment, following the resolution of its capacity bottlenecks [2] - The profitability of the entire supply chain is anticipated to improve amid rising prices in the upstream market, with market expectations for CATL's 2026 performance likely to be revised upwards [2] - The current cycle of capital expenditure (capex) is expected to benefit lithium battery equipment manufacturers, locking in high growth for the next 2-3 years, while solid-state battery research will advance significantly by 2026 [2] Group 3 - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Wanhua Chemical, and Tianqi Lithium [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - Concerns about potential gold sell-off due to January 2024 Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing are limited, as historical instances did not significantly impact the market [2] - The US GDP growth rate rebounded in Q3 2025, driven by reduced "import rush" effects and increased net exports, with personal consumption contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth [3] - By Q4 2025, US GDP growth may face pressure due to government shutdown impacts, but a significant rebound is expected in Q1 2026, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2: Industry Research - The Hong Kong TMT sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" in 2026, driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to core themes, with technology stocks as the main driver [5] - High-end manufacturing exports improved in November 2025 due to the fading high base effect and strong seasonal restocking demand, with recommendations to focus on companies like QuanFeng Holdings and Anhui Heli [6] - The lithium battery materials sector is anticipated to rebound, with high prices for hexafluorophosphate (6F) and a favorable supply-demand relationship, suggesting investment in companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy [8] Group 3: Company Research - The report on Bomei Ke (603727.SH) indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected net profits of 0.49 billion (down 81%) and 1.59 billion (down 59%) respectively, while maintaining an "Accumulate" rating due to ongoing high demand in the overseas oil service market [9]

Core Insights - The global energy storage industry is entering a new growth cycle, with an expected addition of 438 GWh of new installations by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] - The growth drivers have shifted from solely renewable energy consumption to a combination of "AI computing infrastructure + energy transition demand + grid congestion" [1] - The supply-demand relationship in the industry is significantly improving, transitioning from a destocking phase to a replenishment boom, leading to simultaneous increases in both volume and price in certain segments of the supply chain [1] Regional Insights - China is projected to install 250 GWh by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 67%, with policies shifting from "strong allocation" to "profitability" [2] - The United States is expected to add 70 GWh of installations by 2026, a 35% increase year-on-year, driven by AI [2] - Europe is forecasted to install 51 GWh by 2026, a 55% increase year-on-year, with long-term contracts locking in gigawatt-level demand [2] - Emerging markets are anticipated to add 67 GWh by 2026, a 91% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in Australia, the Middle East, and Chile [2] Technological Developments - AI computing is becoming synonymous with electricity, with energy storage evolving from merely backup power to active supply, addressing voltage fluctuations and serving as a strategic infrastructure for AI data centers [3] - The mismatch between rapid renewable energy generation and slow grid development is intensifying, making energy storage a critical solution for congestion [4] - Solid-state batteries are expected to enter small-scale production by 2026, marking a significant step towards commercialization across various applications [7] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The lithium battery supply is expected to recover by 2026 after a two-year destocking phase, driven by sustained high demand from AI and energy storage, while supply expansion slows due to reduced capital expenditure [6] - Trade barriers are increasing, with the U.S. and EU implementing stricter regulations, favoring companies with localized production capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on midstream materials that are expected to benefit from supply-demand reversals, particularly lithium fluoride, lithium carbonate, separators, and electrolyte additives [8] - Invest in leading companies with localized manufacturing capabilities and strong ESG frameworks, such as CATL and Sungrow, to capitalize on high-profit markets while mitigating tariff risks [8][9] - Target companies that can integrate into the overseas data center supply chain, providing solar-storage solutions and microgrid systems [9]

Core Viewpoint - The global energy storage industry is entering a new growth cycle, with an expected addition of 438 GWh of new installations by 2026, representing a 62% year-on-year increase. The growth drivers have shifted from solely renewable energy consumption to a combination of "AI computing infrastructure, energy transition needs, and grid congestion" [1][2]. Group 1: Global Market Insights - The global energy storage market is expected to see significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics, transitioning from a destocking phase to a replenishment boom, with some segments of the supply chain experiencing simultaneous increases in volume and price [2]. - In China, the expected installation for 2026 is 250 GWh, a 67% increase year-on-year, with policies shifting from "strong allocation" to "profitability" [2]. - In the United States, the anticipated installation for 2026 is 70 GWh, a 35% increase year-on-year, driven by AI-related demand [2]. - In Europe, the expected installation for 2026 is 51 GWh, a 55% increase year-on-year, with long-term contracts locking in gigawatt-level demand [2]. - Emerging markets are projected to install 67 GWh in 2026, a 91% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in Australia, the Middle East, and Chile [2]. Group 2: Technological and Structural Changes - Energy storage is evolving from merely providing backup power to actively supplying electricity, addressing voltage fluctuations, and becoming a strategic infrastructure for AI data centers [3]. - The mismatch between rapid renewable energy generation and slow grid development is intensifying, making energy storage the only immediate solution to grid congestion [3]. - The U.S. is tightening regulations on supply chains, which will favor companies with localized production capabilities, enhancing their pricing power [3]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Supply and Demand - The lithium battery supply is expected to recover in 2026 after a two-year destocking phase, driven by sustained high demand from AI and energy storage, while supply growth slows due to reduced capital expenditures [3]. - The industry is shifting from price wars to collaborative pricing strategies, leading to a recovery in prices and a redistribution of profits towards upstream materials with high barriers to entry [3]. Group 4: Emerging Technologies - The trend towards solid-state batteries is becoming clearer, with expectations for small-scale production by 2026 and advancements in various battery technologies [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on midstream materials experiencing supply-demand reversals, particularly lithium fluoride, lithium carbonate, separators, and electrolyte additives [5]. - Companies with localized manufacturing capabilities and strong ESG frameworks, such as CATL and Sungrow, are recommended for their ability to capture high-profit markets while mitigating tariff risks [5]. - Firms that can integrate solar storage and microgrid solutions into overseas data center supply chains, such as Sungrow and Aters, are also recommended [5]. - Attention should be given to core materials and equipment for solid-state batteries, including lithium anodes and dry-process technologies [5].

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has emerged from a cyclical bottom, with demand maintaining unexpectedly high growth, leading to price stabilization and profit recovery in various segments [4][19] - In 2025, the domestic new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28%, driven by policies and market demand [19][20] - The battery segment is anticipated to see price increases and a cyclical upturn in 2026, benefiting from unexpected growth in energy storage demand and new technologies [4][48] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, optimizing the supply side and driving high demand for energy storage, with significant growth expected in 2026 [6][28] - The integration of energy storage and photovoltaic systems is expected to enhance the economic viability of storage solutions, leading to sustained high growth in the energy storage sector [6][36] - Key beneficiaries in the photovoltaic sector include leading companies in silicon materials and integrated component manufacturers, such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. [6][28] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power installation is expected to remain high, with the "de-involution" orders stabilizing prices and improving overall industry profitability [7][8] - The global offshore wind power market is entering an expansion phase, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies, creating growth opportunities for domestic manufacturers [7][8] - Companies that have successfully entered overseas markets and secured significant orders are expected to see strong performance in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector should focus on companies with strong pricing power and profitability, such as Guoxuan High-Tech and other related beneficiaries [4][5] - In the photovoltaic sector, investment should target companies benefiting from the "de-involution" process and those involved in energy storage solutions, such as Sungrow Power Supply [6][28] - For the wind power industry, attention should be given to companies with established overseas operations and strong product profitability, particularly in offshore wind components [7][8]

Overall Insights - The report emphasizes that the core driver of the electric new industry is "demand," while "price" contributes additional elasticity. The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new demand cycle due to changes in underlying demand drivers [4][7][26]. - Macro-level trends indicate that the direction of renewable energy development remains unchanged, with clear trends in artificial intelligence and embodied intelligence industries [4][7]. - At the mid-level, the focus shifts to high-quality development of renewable energy, with consumption becoming central, and AI expected to drive global electricity demand growth [4][7]. - Micro-level analysis shows that various segments within the electric new industry will benefit to varying degrees [4][7]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is positioned as the main line for renewable energy consumption, with North American AI contributing elasticity. The global energy storage installation growth rate is expected to reach 60%-80% by 2026, with the energy storage industry chain benefiting significantly [8]. - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow by 30% in 2026, supported by high domestic registration volumes and stable production schedules [8]. - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in the second half of 2026, with recommendations for investments in lithium carbonate and companies like CATL and Putailai [8]. Power Equipment - The power equipment sector is expected to be driven by exports and global economic recovery, with AI development enhancing overseas demand expectations [9]. - Key recommendations include focusing on transformers for export and AI power supply solutions, as domestic companies are likely to capture more global market share [9]. Wind and Solar - The wind power sector is anticipated to experience high demand growth, particularly in offshore and domestic markets. The supply-demand dynamics and product structure are expected to positively impact profitability across different segments [10]. - The solar power sector faces short-term uncertainties but is expected to recover as energy storage installation ratios increase, with a return to reasonable supply-demand levels anticipated by 2027 [10]. New Directions - The humanoid robotics industry is highlighted as a significant future direction, akin to the electric vehicle boom from 2015-2019, with a focus on key suppliers and domestic manufacturers [11]. - Solid-state battery technology is also emphasized, with ongoing developments expected to enhance sustainability and certainty in the sector [11].

Core Viewpoint - Changjiang Securities' research report indicates that Tianci Materials is deeply engaged in the new materials sector, unlocking mid-term value potential. The company's main business profitability continues to improve, and with the rise in 6F prices, there is expected to be significant market share growth. The company's iron phosphate business is anticipated to reach a supply-demand inflection point by 2026. Additionally, progress in solid-state battery business and high-value new materials like insulating adhesives further enhance the company's long-term market valuation. Under the expectation of rising 6F prices, Tianci Materials demonstrates strong cost-performance among its peers. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is estimated to be 1.2 billion and 5.1 billion respectively [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on new materials, which is expected to unlock mid-term value [1] - The profitability of the company's main business is continuously improving [1] - The rise in 6F prices is expected to significantly enhance the company's market share [1] Group 2 - The company's iron phosphate business is projected to reach a supply-demand inflection point by 2026 [1] - Progress in solid-state battery business is positive [1] - New materials such as insulating adhesives have high value potential [1] Group 3 - The company is expected to show strong cost-performance under the rising 6F price expectation [1] - Projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.2 billion [1] - Projected net profit for 2026 is estimated at 5.1 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the price and stock performance trends during the last lithium cycle [8]. - It notes that the price of lithium carbonate and other materials has shown significant fluctuations, impacting the profitability of companies within the supply chain [12][19][23]. - The report indicates that the stock prices of major lithium battery companies peaked in late 2021, with a notable lag behind the price peaks of raw materials [39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - The previous lithium cycle saw a dramatic increase in prices, with 6F prices rising from 70,000 CNY/ton in mid-2020 to 425,000 CNY/ton by August 2021, while lithium carbonate prices surged to 500,000 CNY/ton by early 2022 [12]. - The report discusses the impact of long-term contracts on pricing stability, noting that leading companies maintained higher prices even as market prices began to decline [12]. Section 2: Price Trends of Key Materials - Iron lithium processing fees increased significantly from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022, with a total rise of approximately 20,000 CNY/ton, before stabilizing and then declining in 2023 [19]. - The report details the price trends of negative electrode materials, indicating a price increase of 10,000 CNY/ton from H2 2021 to Q1 2022 due to supply constraints [23]. - Wet-process separator prices saw a modest increase of 0.2-0.3 CNY/sq.m from H2 2021 to H1 2022, with a subsequent decline starting in Q1 2023 [26]. Section 3: Battery Cost and Profitability - The report estimates that the costs for iron lithium and ternary batteries were 0.77 and 0.91 CNY/Wh respectively in Q2 2022, reflecting an increase from Q1 2021 [31]. - It notes that battery companies were able to pass on cost increases to automakers starting in Q2 2022, leading to stable unit profitability despite earlier cost pressures [31]. Section 4: Stock Performance Review - The report provides a detailed review of stock performance across key companies in the lithium battery sector from 2019 to 2022, highlighting significant gains during the electric vehicle boom [37]. - It notes that the stock prices of most companies peaked in November 2021, with a subsequent decline observed in the following year [39]. - The report emphasizes that the price peaks of raw materials often lagged behind stock price peaks, indicating a complex relationship between market dynamics and stock performance [39].

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of the manufacturing sector in the energy storage industry is currently at historical lows, which is deemed unreasonable and unsustainable. The expected increase in prices by 10-15 cents/Wh by 2026 will significantly enhance midstream manufacturing profits while maintaining manageable impacts on downstream demand [1][4]. Group 1: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - The domestic energy storage demand is robust, with a significant year-on-year increase in project bidding data. The lithium battery sector is experiencing price increases driven by demand, raising concerns about "price increases suppressing demand" [4][19]. - The average internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects in provinces with high bidding volumes is estimated at 9.58%, with a capital IRR of 13.89%, indicating strong attractiveness for investors [6][19]. - The terminal stations can accommodate an increase in upstream EPC costs of 0.1-0.15 yuan/Wh, with expected profit increases across various segments, totaling an additional 10.6 cents/Wh in profit distribution [10][19]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Expectations - The current midstream manufacturing profitability is severely constrained, but a slight reduction in terminal pricing could lead to substantial profit increases. Projections suggest that prices for lithium carbonate, energy storage cells, and energy storage integration may reach 175,000 yuan/ton, 0.4 yuan/Wh, and 0.58 yuan/Wh respectively by next year [8][14]. - The anticipated profit margins in the lithium carbonate segment and other materials are expected to exceed current market price expectations, indicating a potential undervaluation of leading companies [14][16]. - The expected price increases in the lithium carbonate segment are projected to be around 94%, significantly higher than what is currently reflected in stock prices [16][25]. Group 3: Policy and Long-term Development - Multiple provinces have announced long-term targets for energy storage, which will support the medium to long-term development of the domestic energy storage market. For instance, Xinjiang aims for 20GW by 2025 and over 50GW by 2030 [20][21]. - The non-linear growth in energy storage demand is expected to accelerate the supply-demand reversal in the lithium battery midstream, with global lithium battery demand projected to reach 2,721 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 30% [22][23]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Material Costs - The supply side is expected to face tightness in the 6F and copper foil segments, with overall industry capacity utilization rates above 75%, providing a basis for price increases [23][25]. - The materials sector, particularly in 6F, is anticipated to see significant price increases, with current market quotes already reflecting a 2.3 times increase compared to previous levels [25].