证券研究报告 新宙邦 (300037 CH) 看好 6F 及添加剂贡献利润弹性 2026 年 3 月 23 日│中国内地 电力设备与新能源 25Q4 电解液盈利受益于原材料 6F 及添加剂涨价 25Q4 收入 30.23 亿元，同/环比+38.7%/+27.6%，归母净利 3.49 亿元，同/ 环比+45.2%/+32.2%，扣非净利 3.74 亿元，同/环比+53.4%/+50.2%。电解 液方面，我们推测 Q4 电解液盈利约 1 亿，出货量超 9 万吨，单吨净利超 1000 元，6F 及添加剂等涨价贡献超额盈利。氟化工方面，我们推测 Q4 氟 化工盈利超 2 亿，环比较为平稳。电容器化学品方面，我们推测公司 Q4 盈 利 0.5 亿，主要系 MLCC 化学品国产替代加速。公司 Q4 非经-0.26 亿，我 们推测主要系资产减值影响。 看好公司自产 6F 及添加剂贡献利润弹性 根据 Wind，截至 3 月 23 日，6F 价格为 11.1 万元/吨，较 12 月均价 18.0 万元/吨出现回落，主要系淡季效应下库存有所增加，而根据百川盈孚，截 至 3 月 23 日，六氟磷酸锂库存达 7290 吨，较 3 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.65 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.362 billion yuan, a significant increase of 181.43% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 1.360 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 256.32% [2][4] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.807 billion yuan, which is a 58.87% increase year-on-year and a 52.27% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for this quarter was 941 million yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 546.39% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 516.37% [2][4] - The company’s electrolyte sales exceeded 720,000 tons for the year, marking a 44% increase. The gross margin for lithium battery materials was 21.27%, benefiting from improved high-margin structure, integrated cost advantages, and hedging against price fluctuations [11] - The company plans to build a new energy materials industrial park in Yichang, Hubei, with an estimated total investment of no more than 2.1 billion yuan. This project aims to enhance local supply capacity and quality assurance [11] - Looking ahead, the company is expected to benefit from strong terminal demand and a gradual release of supply, with the price increase of 6F expected to have a positive impact on profitability [11] Financial Summary - For 2025, total revenue is projected at 16.65 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 3.703 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.362 billion yuan [17] - The company anticipates significant growth in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projections of 31.635 billion yuan in revenue for 2026 and 37.962 billion yuan for 2027 [17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [6][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 16.65 billion in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of RMB 1.36 billion, which is a significant year-over-year growth of 181.4% [6]. - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a notable increase in demand, with expectations for a growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026. The company has secured long-term contracts with key lithium battery clients, ensuring stable supply relationships [6][8]. - The company plans to increase its production capacity significantly, with an expected rise from 110,000 tons in 2025 to over 270,000 tons by the end of 2028, which is a 145% increase [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are RMB 7.53 billion, RMB 9.84 billion, and RMB 12.32 billion, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 453%, 31%, and 25% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be RMB 3.70, RMB 4.84, and RMB 6.06, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.7, 9.0, and 7.2 [8]. - The gross profit margin for 2025 is reported at 22.2%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-over-year, with a significant rise in the fourth quarter gross margin to 30.1% [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing internal rotation, with mid-term demand expected to continue rising. However, short-term price increases and negative feedback on demand may create volatility. If upstream supply issues ease, such as the resumption of lithium mica production by CATL, market confidence in demand may strengthen. Additionally, if industry production exceeds expectations or enters a peak season, price elasticity may increase, particularly for lithium carbonate, 6F, and iron lithium [3][30]. - In the mid-term, segments with stronger certainty and greater potential, such as separators, copper foil, and anodes, are expected to lead the market [3][30]. Separator Segment - The separator industry is entering a period of oversupply, with prices declining significantly, leading to reduced profitability for companies. The capacity utilization rate for wet-process separators is expected to recover positively due to sustained lithium battery demand [6][32]. - The penetration rate of wet-process separators is projected to increase, with expectations of a significant demand boost from the transition to 5μm products. This may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price surges in the future [6][42][50]. Copper Foil Segment - The copper foil industry is facing challenges due to supply-demand mismatches and technological iterations. However, the industry is at a cost support stage, with production expansion stagnating and profitability expected to recover as demand strengthens [8][58]. - The market for high-value low-profile (HVLP) copper foil is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by high-frequency and high-speed requirements in AI servers, leading to a potential upgrade cycle [8][58]. Anode Segment - The anode segment is currently experiencing low profitability, with weak expansion intentions across the industry. Capacity utilization rates are expected to improve gradually, with potential catalysts needed for price increases, such as rising upstream petroleum coke prices or stricter energy consumption policies [9][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities and market dynamics in various sectors, particularly focusing on the energy storage industry and the performance of companies like NVIDIA and Sinopec Engineering. Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The domestic large-scale energy storage capacity for 2026/2027 is a critical variable in assessing lithium battery demand, with three key indicators to monitor: regional coal power capacity pricing, the scale of energy storage project lists, and changes in spot market price differentials [4]. - The domestic energy storage industry is entering a phase of healthy development, benefiting leading companies in the sector [4]. Group 2: NVIDIA Performance - NVIDIA's FY26 Q4 revenue reached $68.1 billion, with guidance for FY27 Q1 revenue at $78 billion, exceeding market expectations [10]. - The forecast for NVIDIA's GAAP net profit for FY2027-2029 is projected at $211.09 billion, $273.25 billion, and $327.93 billion respectively, driven by strong AI computing demand and robust product cycles [10]. Group 3: Sinopec Engineering Contracts - Sinopec Engineering reported a total new contract value of 101.248 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2025, a 0.6% increase from the previous year [12]. - The projected net profit for Sinopec Engineering for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.595 billion, 2.760 billion, and 2.902 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [12]. Group 4: Tourism Market Insights - The tourism market during the Spring Festival showed high prosperity, characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, with both domestic and outbound tourism destinations gaining popularity [24]. - The positive trends in the tourism sector are attributed to extended holidays, visa-free policies, subsidies, and a rise in emotional consumption, indicating strong investment opportunities in service-oriented consumption [24]. Group 5: Carbon Emission and Green Energy - The transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control in China, along with the implementation of EU carbon tariffs, is expected to create a green premium for low-carbon assets [26]. - Non-electric applications of green energy, such as green hydrogen and ammonia, are anticipated to benefit from this shift, with recommendations to focus on companies involved in green hydrogen production and chemical transformation [26]. Group 6: Financial Sector Outlook - During the Spring Festival, the A-share market was closed, but Hong Kong's banking and non-banking financial sectors performed well, with increases of 1.9% and 4% respectively [30]. - The banking sector is entering a "spring sowing" window, with expectations for improved valuations in insurance stocks due to favorable fundamentals [30].

Real Estate - In January, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 15 core cities increased by 14.3% year-on-year, while the transaction amount of commodity residential properties in 30 core cities was 185.9 billion yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year, with an average transaction price of 24,285 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year [5][6] - The average transaction price in first-tier cities decreased by 9.8% year-on-year. The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate expectations and suggests that leading companies may benefit from an optimized competitive structure as supply-side adjustments continue [5][6] Metals - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings saw a slight increase during the Spring Festival period, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards gold [5] - The steel industry is expected to see a strengthening of supply-side adjustments in the short to medium term, as losses for listed steel companies in Q4 2025 approached those of Q3/Q4 2024. The tightening of steel export policies may impact the industry's profitability, which heavily relies on direct and indirect exports [5] Energy Storage - The domestic large-scale energy storage capacity for 2026/2027 is a critical variable in assessing lithium battery demand. Key indicators to monitor include regional coal power capacity pricing, the scale of energy storage project lists, and changes in spot market price differentials [6] - The domestic energy storage industry is entering a phase of healthy development, with leading companies expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 78.00 [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by increased demand for energy storage and battery chemicals, resulting in a revenue of RMB 9.639 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.84% [1]. - The company is expected to see further growth in the shipment of organic fluorine products and a gradual reduction in losses from Haidefu, with capacitors showing profit elasticity as new products ramp up [1]. - The report highlights the anticipated recovery of 6F prices in the peak season of 2026, which is expected to contribute positively to profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4, the company reported revenue of RMB 3.023 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 350 million, up 45.5% year-on-year [2]. - The profitability in Q4 was attributed to price increases in electrolyte raw materials, particularly 6F and additives, which contributed to excess profits [2]. Price Trends and Capacity Expansion - As of February 10, 2026, the price of 6F was RMB 130,000 per ton, down from an average of RMB 180,000 per ton in December, primarily due to seasonal inventory increases. However, limited new production capacity is expected to be released in 2026, which may lead to a price rebound in the peak season [3]. - The company plans to expand its overseas production capacity, including a RMB 200 million investment in Poland for an additional 50,000 tons of electrolyte production and a USD 260 million investment in Saudi Arabia for lithium battery materials [4]. Product Applications and Future Outlook - The company's fluorinated cooling liquids have achieved mass application in semiconductor cooling, data center immersion cooling, and precision instrument cleaning. The upcoming production of high-end fluorochemical products is expected to significantly increase capacity and market opportunities [5]. - The report anticipates an increase in revenue from the electrolyte business, with revised revenue estimates for 2025-2027 reflecting a positive outlook due to high prices and increased production capacity [12].

Summary of ZJ Company Lithium Battery Sector Update Industry Overview - The lithium battery sector has undergone adjustments since November 2025, with the first quarter of 2026 experiencing a seasonal downturn, rising raw material prices, and demand contradictions. Recent data from the supply chain and end markets are beginning to show positive signals [1][1]. Key Insights 1. **Demand Resilience**: In January 2026, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles demonstrated resilience. The implementation of vehicle trade-in policies and the gradual reopening of subsidy channels, along with financial promotions from car manufacturers, led to a stabilization of orders by late January [1][1]. 2. **Production Adjustments**: In February 2026, the supply chain's production decreased by 12-13% month-on-month, which is seen as a strong bottom confirmation signal. Year-on-year, production across various supply chain segments increased by 30-40%, indicating a robust performance [1][1]. 3. **Price Stabilization**: Recent adjustments in lithium carbonate futures have alleviated some pressure on end users. Prices of previously high-inflation auxiliary materials, such as 6F and VC, have stabilized or slightly declined [2][2]. 4. **Catalysts for Recovery**: Three catalysts are expected to drive recovery post-Spring Festival: - **Catalyst One**: A natural recovery in demand for power and energy storage in March, supported by trade-in policies and new vehicle launches, could lead to a significant increase in production, with expectations of a 20-30% month-on-month rise in battery production [2][2]. - **Catalyst Two**: Progress in solid-state battery tenders and the initiation of traditional equipment tenders in early 2026 may create a positive feedback loop [2][2]. - **Catalyst Three**: A mild inflation in the supply chain is anticipated, which could lead to a fundamental improvement in the sector [2][2]. Investment Strategy - **Material Segment Focus**: Prioritize recommendations in the material segment, where price increases are expected to accelerate fundamental recovery. Key materials with significant elasticity include 6F, VC, and lithium carbonate. If demand rises quickly in March, further price increases are likely [5][5]. - **Mid-term Recommendations**: For mid-term investments, focus on separators and copper-aluminum foils, which have favorable market conditions. The capital expenditure of leading manufacturers is cautious, suggesting a potential supply-demand turning point in the second half of 2026 to 2027 [5][5]. - **Battery Segment Outlook**: The battery segment may face short-term mismatches in raw material price increases and price transmission. However, after the first quarter of 2026, profitability is expected to rebound. The leading battery manufacturer, CATL, is recommended due to its strong bargaining power and integrated upstream resource layout, which may mitigate the impact of raw material price increases [5][5]. Additional Insights - **New Capacity and Order Growth**: The new capacity expected in the first quarter of 2026 is likely to support high growth in shipment volumes. Companies with high battery reserves, such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Zhongxin Innovation, are also worth monitoring [6][6]. - **Component Recommendations**: In the general components segment, recommend leading companies in fuses and integrated busbars, which are expected to benefit from high growth in energy storage and new product releases [6][6]. - **Solid-State Battery Sector**: The solid-state battery sector is anticipated to resonate positively, with long-term demand increases expected from space applications [7][8]. - **Core Components for Solid-State Batteries**: Key components in the solid-state battery supply chain, including dry process electrodes and laser equipment, are expected to benefit from ongoing industrialization efforts [9][9]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the positive outlook for the lithium battery sector, driven by demand recovery, production adjustments, and strategic investment opportunities.

【zj公司】锂电板块观点更新@20260209（打分请多支持！） 我们认为，锂电板块从25年11月调整至今，对1Q26淡季、原材料涨价与需求矛盾的交易已较为充分，近期从产业 链和终端的数据来看在逐步释放一些积极的信号：1）需求方面，国内新能源乘用车1月零售彰显韧性，随着多个 省市的以旧换新细则落地以及补贴通道的逐步重启，叠加车企金融促销策略，1月下旬订单有所企稳。 2）26年2月产业链排产环比降幅12-13% 【zj公司】锂电板块观点更新@20260209（打分请多支持！） 我们认为，锂电板块从25年11月调整至今，对1Q26淡季、原材料涨价与需求矛盾的交易已较为充分，近期从产业 链和终端的数据来看在逐步释放一些积极的信号：1）需求方面，国内新能源乘用车1月零售彰显韧性，随着多个 省市的以旧换新细则落地以及补贴通道的逐步重启，叠加车企金融促销策略，1月下旬订单有所企稳。 ➡优先推荐材料环节，涨价带来基本面加速修复。 2）26年2月产业链排产环比降幅12-13%以内，作为底部确认信号，我们认为2月排产已属较强，若结合1-2月排产 数据看同比表现，产业链各环节排产同增30-40%以上，同比增幅亮眼。 3）产业链价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a pullback primarily due to declines in lithium battery material stocks, with concerns over the transmission of price increases for lithium carbonate and other raw materials [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There are differing opinions on the impact of price increases on demand; however, historically, demand has not been affected, leading to simultaneous increases in both volume and price across the supply chain [1][2]. - The price decline is attributed to capacity expansion rather than a decrease in demand, indicating that price movements in rigid capacity segments serve as demand indicators [2]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Future Outlook - After a rise in bottom valuations, the market may question demand, causing temporary uncertainty in the sector; however, prices are expected to rise in tandem with volume, particularly in segments with high price elasticity [2]. - From 2026 to 2028, a surge in energy storage demand is anticipated to reverse the supply-demand dynamics in lithium batteries, leading to an inflationary cycle in the supply chain, with profits shifting from power station segments to upstream manufacturing and mining [2]. Group 3: Chemical Industry Recommendations - The chemical sector is advised to take advantage of current pullback opportunities, as segments like large-scale refining remain at relatively low levels and are gradually improving in terms of market conditions [2]. - PX inventory is at a three-year low, with no new capacity expected for PX before Q4 2026 and no new PTA capacity for the entire year of 2026; this situation, along with historically low price differentials for PX/PTA, suggests a potential reversal in market conditions [2]. Group 4: Index Performance - As of January 27, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with notable gains from companies like Zhongjian Technology and Juhua Co., while companies like Duliangduo are underperforming [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, including major players such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [3].