行业研究丨深度报告丨电气设备 [Table_Title] 新章与更序 ——电新行业 2026 年度投资策略 [Table_Summary] 复盘过去 6 年电新行业股价走势，我们认为作为典型的成长性行业，"需求"是最核心驱动要 素，同时"价格"贡献额外弹性。2026 年作为十五五第一年，我们认为电新行业底层需求驱动 因素出现变化，有望催动新一轮需求景气周期：1）宏观层面，新能源发展方向不变，人工智能、 具身智能产业趋势明确；2）中观层面，新能源转向高质量发展，消纳逐步成为核心，人工智能 将拉动全球电力需求开启新的增长；3）微观层面，电新各细分赛道均有不同程度受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 叶之楠 袁澎 王耀 SAC：S0490520090003 SAC：S0490524010001 SAC：S0490524120006 任佳惠 喻亨一 周圣钧 SAC：S0490524070005 SAC：S049052503 ...

格隆汇12月12日｜长江证券研报指出，天赐材料深耕新型材料布局，打开中期价值空间。公司主业盈利 持续改善，随6F价格上涨，在紧缺周期的进一步弹性外，份额有望显著提升，公司磷酸铁业务也有望 在2026 年迎来供需拐点。此外，公司固态电池业务进展积极，绝缘胶等新材料价值量大，考虑到固态 和新材料提供远期市值折现，天赐材料在6F涨价预期下的标的中性价比凸显。预计公司2025、2026年 归母净利润分别为12、51亿元，继续推荐。 ...

上一轮锂电周期的价格和 股价是如何演绎 2025-12-08 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 叶之楠 联系人 王晓振 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂持续，材料依次 02 股价复盘：景气周期看弹性，中期格局为先 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂 持续，材料依次 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 复盘丨6F：20Q4-22Q1大涨，报表有长单平滑 ➢ 上一轮6F从2020年中的7万开始上涨，2020年底散单价格达到10-12万；2021年8月底在碳酸锂温和上涨至10万的背景下，6F散单大 幅上 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 文 ｜朱玥 许琳 任佳玮 储能需求爆发的大背景下，制造业环节的盈利能力仍处于历史低位的情况是不合理和不可持续的。当 前终端IRR水平较高，预计可接受10-15分/Wh的利润让渡。我们预计2026年制造业环节价格将上涨 10-15分/Wh，税后对终端电站的成本上涨12分/Wh，这对于下游需求的影响是可控的，但中游制造 业利润将大幅增厚，看好储能需求驱动下，制造业上下游量价齐升、共振受益。 国内储能对上游涨价的可接受空间较大 经济性驱动下，国内储能需求旺盛，储能项目招标数据同比大幅增长。锂电部分环节（电芯、6F等）受需 求拉动出现涨价，市场中随之出现"涨价抑制需求"的质疑， 我们本篇报告将测算国内储能电站对上游涨价 空间的接受度，并对未来各环节利润分配进行展望。 以国内储能招标较多的省份（河北、甘肃、内蒙、宁夏、山西、山东、新疆等）为例，我们结合各省招标量 对主要省份的加权平均IRR进行测算。 在当前储能系统集成价格0.5元/Wh，EPC价格0.8元/Wh的假设 下，全投资IRR加权平均为9.58%，资本金IRR加权平均1 ...

Core Insights - The price agreement for 6F has exceeded expectations, with November delivery prices corresponding to an average of 85,000 (including tax) and December delivery prices expected to be around 130,000 to 140,000, significantly higher than the initial market expectation of 80,000 to 90,000 [1] - The net profit per ton for December 6F is estimated to be around 60,000 to 70,000 based on a cost of 60,000, corresponding to a 10x price-to-earnings ratio [1] - The industry is projected to remain tight through 2026, with current capacity just over 300,000 tons and only a 60,000-ton increase expected next year, primarily in the second half [1] Industry Developments - The solid-state battery sector is expected to see significant developments by the end of the year, including: 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to release mid-term review results in December, with leading manufacturers likely to exceed expectations [1] 2. Bidding for pilot lines from major clients is starting to open [1] 3. Major manufacturers are expected to conduct road tests by the end of the year [1] Market Performance - As of December 1, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 1.82%, with notable increases in component stocks such as: - Andong Biological (603077) up 10.05% - Duofluor (002407) up 6.98% - Tianci Materials (002709) up 6.93% [1] - The Chemical ETF (159870) also increased by 1.74%, marking a third consecutive rise [1] Index Composition - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) closely tracks the performance of major companies in the chemical sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 45.41% of the index. These include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Salt Lake Co. (000792) - Tianci Materials (002709) - Cangge Mining (000408) - Juhua Co. (600160) - Hualu Hengsheng (600426) - Duofluor (002407) - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Baofeng Energy (600989) - Yuntianhua (600096) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities indicates that Tianqi Materials is expected to maintain high growth in electrolyte shipments in Q3 2025, benefiting from a tight supply environment and gaining market share [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The price of 6F has accelerated significantly since October, which is expected to impact electrolyte prices positively [1] - The company's profitability is projected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with further elasticity in 6F prices anticipated during the tight supply cycle in 2026 [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The company aims to strategically increase the penetration rate of LIFSI, which is expected to enhance its market share in electrolytes and LIFSI [1] - The phosphate iron business is anticipated to reach a supply-demand inflection point in 2026, potentially contributing to profitability recovery and growth [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - The solid-state battery business is progressing positively, with lithium sulfide samples expected to be sent out, aiming for customer breakthroughs and capacity reserves in 2026 [1] - The UV insulation adhesive has significant value potential, likely to further enhance profitability, with the solid-state battery business to be valued separately based on long-term potential [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 1.2 billion and 5.1 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 67X and 16X [1]

Group 1 - The lithium battery and solid-state battery sectors are currently gaining attention, with prices for 6F, VC, and battery-grade EC rising to 165,000, 170,000, and 5,900 per ton respectively [1] - As of November 28, the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) increased by 0.81%, and the related index for fine chemicals (000813.CSI) rose by 0.95%, with major constituents like Salt Lake Co. up 1.37% and Enjie Co. up 2.96% [1] - Research from brokerage firms indicates that the price increase for 6F, VC, and battery-grade EC is expected to continue, driven by strong downstream demand and rising upstream prices, enhancing price elasticity and sustainability [1] Group 2 - The price of 6F reached 165,000, with an average price of 138,000 in November, suggesting that profits for 6F companies may significantly exceed expectations [1] - In the case of VC additives, despite the recent resumption of production by Shandong Genyuan, its maximum monthly output is only around 2,000 tons, which has a limited impact on the market [1] - For solvent EC, battery-grade EC has risen to 5,900 per ton, with a cumulative increase of 25% this month, and factory inventories are at their lowest this year, allowing for upward price movement [1]

Group 1 - Recent significant price increases in battery electrolyte, with 6F reaching 165,000 yuan, VC at 170,000 yuan/ton, and EC at 5,900 yuan/ton, leading to active performance of related companies like Wanrun New Energy [1] - Current electrolyte "three heroes" are experiencing continuous price increase catalysts, with 6F prices expected to exceed profit expectations in the future, and it remains the most critical segment by 2026 [2] - VC additive production recovery by Shandong Genyuan is limited, with a monthly output of only 2,000 tons, and industry inventory is at its lowest this year, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2] - EC solvent prices have risen by 25% this month, with factory inventory at its lowest level this year, allowing for upward price movement in the market [2] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy Index (000692) rose by 1.20%, with component stocks like Wanrun New Energy up by 12.88% and Micro导纳米 up by 11.15% [3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation New Energy ETF (588830) increased by 0.96%, with the latest price at 1.48 yuan [3] Group 3 - Related products include Sci-Tech Innovation New Energy ETF (588830), ChiNext New Energy ETF (159261), and Photovoltaic ETF Fund (159863) [4] - Related stocks include companies such as Aters (688472), Trina Solar (688599), Jinko Solar (688223), Daqo New Energy (688303), and others [4]

Core Insights - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle battery capacity and the continuous expansion of new scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - The European market is anticipated to accelerate recovery in demand with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship in the industry chain is expected to improve further, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [2] Group 1: Market Trends - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is benefiting from increased electric vehicle battery capacity and the expansion of new applications, while the European market is set to recover due to the new car cycle [1] - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand anticipated to exceed expectations by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve significantly, with leading manufacturers nearly at full production capacity, leading to price increases in energy storage cells and other components [2] - Capital expenditures in the battery sector are expected to remain high, but overall growth will align with demand, while new capacity in the materials sector is limited, potentially leading to further increases in utilization rates [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industrialization of all-solid-state sulfide batteries is entering the pilot testing phase in 2025, with semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [3] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of all-solid-state sulfide batteries are expected, with advancements in process routes and material systems [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1. Anticipating energy storage demand to exceed expectations, driving a reversal trend in the sector, with key recommendations in lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [4] 2. Emphasizing new technologies as high-growth investment directions, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries and their supply chains [4] 3. Looking at the recovery of charging station construction under policy support, with new scenarios potentially leading to value reassessment [4]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with all three major indices declining: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.24%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and ChiNext Index down 0.51% [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights a surge in energy storage orders, maintaining a bullish outlook on lithium batteries and energy storage. A significant contract of 200GWh over three years was signed between Haibosi and CATL, confirming the tight supply of energy storage batteries. The firm anticipates excess profits in downstream investment operations to be passed upstream through price increases in materials, batteries, and integration [2] - The firm continues to favor materials, particularly 6F, iron lithium, anode, diaphragm, and battery segments. Key points to monitor include: 1) Seasonal production peaks leading to supply shortages and rising prices for materials and energy storage batteries 2) Clarity on demand for 2026 as downstream procurement and long-term contracts are established in October and November 3) Changes in pricing models [2] Consumer Sector Analysis - Galaxy Securities notes that the correlation between the consumer sector and major online promotions like Double Eleven will gradually decrease. The industry should focus on the medium to long-term consumption goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with optimism regarding overseas business development in 2026. The firm suggests paying attention to high-dividend quality companies during the market style switch (from high to low) and identifying companies with alpha potential in various sub-sectors [3] Property Management Outlook - CICC's 2026 outlook for property management indicates that changes in the internal and external environment are driving companies towards a more sustainable operational model characterized by moderate changes in volume and price, along with relatively stable cash flows. In the short term, companies are still in a phase of revenue and profit growth driven by scale expansion, with cash collection facing slight pressure and a continued increase in dividend intentions. The firm recommends high-quality targets with stable performance, strong cash flow, and high dividend yields [4]