邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 10 月 26 日 碳酸锂：驱动明牌，基差走弱，关注上方压力 报告导读： 本周价格走势：盘面走强，基差走弱 碳酸锂期货合约价格偏强，突破 8 万元/吨。2511 合约收于 78920 元/吨，周环比上涨 3220 元/吨， 2601 合约收于 79520 元/吨，周环比上涨 3740 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 2050 元/吨为 75400 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2511 合约）下跌 1170 元/吨至-3520 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-340 元/吨，周环比下跌 150 元/吨。2511-2601 合约价差-600 元/吨，环比走弱 520 元/吨。 供需基本面：表观消费连续三周处于高位且增长 库存：碳酸锂库存较上周去库 2292 吨，至 130366 吨，10 月内去库速度扩大，表观消费处于增长状 态。期货仓单库存速度明显放缓，由下游接货预计向贸易商接货转变。 供应：碳酸锂周度产量和开工率再创新高，周度产量至 21308 吨，开工率 55.2%。本周最大的变数在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a noticeable market correction this week, the outlook for the energy storage and lithium battery industries remains positive, driven by multiple catalysts at this moment [1] Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The global resonance of the energy storage industry trend remains unchanged [1] - In China, the core driver is the comprehensive market entry of new energy, which is widening the peak-valley electricity price difference, along with the introduction of capacity electricity pricing policies that enhance the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage [1] - In the U.S., there is a significant power gap in data centers, making the combination of solar and storage an irreplaceable and rapidly scalable energy source [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is currently experiencing multiple catalysts, with recent market declines attributed to speculations regarding export control policy interpretations [1] - The decline is mainly due to some funds cashing out, but the industry fundamentals remain optimistic amid the ongoing impact of U.S.-China relations [1] - The production season is strong, with materials and energy storage batteries in short supply, leading to continuous price increases; demand clarity for 2026 is becoming more evident, with significant growth in lithium battery production in Q3 compared to previous quarters [1] - The focus remains on materials, particularly 6F, lithium iron phosphate, and opportunities within the battery segment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes a strong recommendation for the energy storage sector, highlighting the favorable fundamentals of the lithium battery industry and the current catalysts driving growth [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Energy Storage Sector - The domestic energy storage economics are reaching a turning point, driven by the full market entry of renewable energy, which is widening the peak-valley electricity price difference [1] - The introduction of capacity electricity pricing policies is enhancing the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage [1] - From January to September, domestic bidding has increased by 88% year-on-year [1] Overseas Market Dynamics - The initiation of the MACSE mechanism in Italy and significant power shortages in U.S. data centers are creating a favorable environment for solar plus storage solutions, which remain an irreplaceable and rapidly scaling energy form [1] - Overseas production capacity is expected to avoid some tariffs, further supporting market growth [1] Lithium Battery Industry - The current period is characterized by multiple catalysts for the lithium battery sector, with a peak production season leading to increased demand for materials and energy storage batteries, resulting in rising prices [1] - Demand clarity is expected to improve by 2026, with significant growth observed in the third quarter both sequentially and year-on-year [1] - The report continues to favor opportunities in materials, particularly in 6F, iron lithium, and battery segments [1]

Group 1: Energy Storage - The company continues to recommend the energy storage sector, highlighting a turning point in domestic energy storage economics and a consistent resonance in overseas solar-storage parity [1][2] - Domestic drivers include the full market entry of renewable energy, which expands the peak-valley electricity price difference, along with the introduction of capacity price policies that enhance energy storage IRR [1][2] - From January to September, domestic bidding increased by 88%, and overseas mechanisms like Italy's MACSE are starting, with significant electricity shortages in US data centers, making solar plus storage an irreplaceable energy form [1][2] Group 2: Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector experienced a significant drop, attributed to market speculation regarding export control policies, but the actual impact is seen as neutral, potentially benefiting overseas industries and batteries [2] - The company remains optimistic about the industry's fundamentals and current catalysts, noting a supply-demand imbalance for materials and energy storage batteries, leading to rising prices [2] - The demand outlook for 2026 is becoming clearer, with Q3 lithium battery performance showing notable growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 3: Photovoltaics - Following the implementation of the Shandong pricing mechanism, industry demand expectations are weak, with the core issue being the internal competition policy [3] - Recent government documents have intensified efforts to address sales below cost, and current prices in the silicon wafer, battery, and module sectors indicate some losses [3] - The focus will be on the progress of silicon material capacity integration and the pricing situation of modules, with a preference for leading companies with technological, cost, and brand advantages [3] Group 4: Wind Power - The company maintains a positive outlook on the wind turbine sector, noting that the average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has increased to 1734 RMB/KW, which is 16% higher than the average price for 2024 [3] - The rising bidding prices are a key observation indicator for the wind turbine sector, which has remained high since November of the previous year [3] Group 5: Power Equipment - There is a surge in sentiment for AIDC-related and undervalued export stocks, driven by rapid growth in AIDC leading to increased electricity demand [3] - High-voltage equipment bidding is expected to catalyze renewed interest, and the export market remains robust, with a 45% increase in domestic transformer exports from January to August 2025 [3] - Companies in the power equipment sector have sufficient orders on hand, indicating high certainty and good cost-performance ratios [3] Group 6: Hydrogen Energy - The green methanol theme is gaining traction ahead of the upcoming IMO vote, with a high probability of passage and significant long-term potential [4] - The US is initiating countermeasures against other member countries, with the outcome of the vote being a key focus for marginal changes [4] Group 7: Robotics - The robotics sector has seen a notable pullback due to the Q3 earnings window and changes in market sentiment, despite the release of Figure AI's Figure03 [4] - The company anticipates multiple catalysts in Q4, with a focus on the release and production planning of Optimus Gen3, alongside key events like Tesla's Q3 earnings call and shareholder meeting [4] - The company is optimistic about supply chain stability and significant hardware changes in the domestic market, particularly in specialized applications for robotic dogs and robots [4]

中信建投研报指出，继续重点推荐储能板块，看好锂电行业基本面和当前时刻催化多。国内储能经济性 迎来拐点+海外光储平价全面共振态势不变。国内核心驱动在于新能源全面入市推动峰谷电价差拉大， 加上容量电价政策出台，推动储能IRR提升。1-9月国内招标同比增长88%。海外意大利MACSE机制启 动，美国数据中心电力缺口大，光+储仍是不可替代的快速上量能源形式，海外产能预计能规避部分关 税。锂电行业当前时刻催化多，排产旺季材料和储能电池供不应求价格不断提升 ，26年需求越发明 朗，锂电Q3基本同环比明显增长；继续看好材料尤其是6F、铁锂和电池环节的机会。 ...

Group 1 - The supply-demand tension for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is intensifying, with nominal capacity increase of only 800,000 tons (+16%), significantly lower than the demand growth rate of over 30% annually, leading to potential shortages in Q4 [1] - The actual production of LFP in September exceeded expectations at 345,000 tons (originally forecasted at 335,000 tons), with October production expected to exceed 370,000 tons, primarily driven by expansion from Fulin Precision and OEM [1] - Prices for lithium battery materials have started to rise, with the average price of 6F increasing from 57,500 to 59,000, indicating a supply-demand imbalance for iron lithium cathodes, with some customers experiencing price hikes and a clear trend of locked volumes for 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to GF Securities, the lithium battery industry is showing signs of profit recovery in the 2025 mid-year report, with a focus on battery segments and solid-state technology development, using financial metrics to analyze industry cycle dynamics [2] - The quick ratio indicates that the battery and iron lithium segments are likely to bottom out first, with leading companies like CATL (YOY -6.67pct) and BYD (YOY -6.39pct) reducing their debt levels, while some companies like Penghui Energy (YOY +7.72pct) are increasing debt to alleviate liquidity pressure [2] Group 3 - Related products include the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830), various classes of linked funds, and the Penghua New Energy ETF [3] - Related stocks include Trina Solar (688599), JinkoSolar (688223), TianNai Technology (688116), Canadian Solar (688472), Daqo New Energy (688303), Xiamen Tungsten (688778), Aulton Technology (688567), Rongbai Technology (688005), Juhe Materials (688503), and Jiayuan Technology (688388) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook across various sectors, particularly in hydrogen energy, wind power, and lithium batteries, indicating strong growth potential and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][23]. Core Insights - The energy revolution is shifting focus towards decarbonization in non-electric sectors, with green hydrogen and methanol as key pathways, presenting multiple investment opportunities in production and equipment [1][5][6][7]. - The wind power sector is experiencing significant developments, with major projects in Italy and Thailand, indicating robust overseas expansion for leading companies [9][10][11][12]. - The lithium battery market is witnessing strong demand driven by the energy storage sector and the upcoming peak consumption season for electric vehicles, leading to price increases [23][24]. Summary by Sections Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The market is recognizing the potential of green hydrogen and methanol, with significant growth expected in various applications such as transportation and chemicals [1][5][6][7]. - The demand for green methanol in shipping is projected to rise, with regulatory frameworks supporting its adoption [7]. Wind Power - Major investments in floating wind projects in Italy are set to commence, with expectations for significant contributions to the European offshore wind market [9][10]. - Companies like Mingyang and Goldwind are expanding their overseas operations, enhancing their competitive edge [11][12]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is entering a strong demand phase, with significant procurement activity from end-users in both energy storage and electric vehicles [23][24]. - The market for lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) is experiencing price increases due to tight supply conditions [23][24]. Electric Grid and Industrial Control - The export of major electrical equipment is on the rise, with significant growth in transformers and high-voltage switches, indicating a long-term positive outlook for overseas demand [26][27]. - Companies in the industrial control sector are launching new products aimed at enhancing efficiency and performance in robotics [28][29]. New Energy Vehicles - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is showing strong sales growth, with significant increases in both retail and wholesale volumes [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand expectations as a key driver for valuation and performance in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [24][28] - It highlights the significant impact of short-term marginal conditions, particularly pricing and production/output data, on market sentiment and stock performance [41][48] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review - The lithium battery market began its upward trend in late 2019, driven by European carbon emission assessments and the rise of new energy vehicle consumption in China [11] - The photovoltaic market saw significant growth from 2020 to 2021 due to global carbon reduction targets and supply constraints, leading to a surge in prices and stock performance [15] - The inverter segment experienced explosive growth driven by demand from energy storage solutions, but faced a sharp decline in 2023 due to inventory issues [19] 2. Key Drivers - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Lithium Batteries** - The report notes that the adjustment of long-term demand expectations directly influences performance and valuation, with significant growth observed in 2020 due to rising demand for new energy vehicles [24] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Photovoltaics** - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2021, demand expectations for photovoltaics were revised upwards, leading to a bullish market sentiment, but concerns about peak demand in 2023 led to a decline in valuations [29] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Inverters** - The inverter market's performance was closely tied to demand expectations, with significant growth in 2022 driven by European energy needs, but a subsequent drop in orders in 2023 [33] 3. Short-term Marginal Conditions - **Pricing** - The report highlights that price changes in lithium and silicon materials significantly affect stock prices, with stock prices often leading material price increases [41] - **Production/Output** - Monthly production and shipment data are critical indicators for stock performance, particularly in the energy storage sector, where visibility is limited [48] - **Quarterly Profit Growth Expectations** - Market participants often use quarterly profit growth expectations to gauge industry health, with stock prices typically peaking ahead of profit expectations [49] 4. Other Insights - The report notes that valuation levels are not the primary indicators of market peaks, as fundamental expectations play a more crucial role in determining market trends [59] 5. Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the energy storage market, projecting significant growth in global installations driven by improved demand expectations and favorable market conditions [62][65]

Group 1: Power Equipment - The AIDC sector continues to show strong sentiment, with companies disclosing new product developments such as SST and HVDC, leading to valuation premiums for new technologies [2] - The high demand for AIDC is expected to persist, with a focus on the release of high-pressure equipment and the extension of the high-pressure equipment boom cycle due to the Yaxia project [2] - Exports in the power transformer sector are projected to grow over 40% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong overseas demand [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery - Opportunities in the lithium battery sector arise from the upcoming peak season and unexpected growth in energy storage, with many stocks being key components of the ChiNext board [4] - The focus is on low-valuation leading companies with stable performance, as well as elastic stocks like 6F that are expected to see price increases [4] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The implementation of the Pricing Law supports the photovoltaic industry chain, ensuring that sales do not fall below full cost, thus providing strong price support [8] - From September, silicon material production and sales will be limited, with expectations for stable output and restricted sales, leading to a potential narrowing of losses for companies with sufficient inventory [8] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve, contingent on unexpected changes in supply and demand dynamics [8] Group 4: Energy Storage - Companies with strong performance in the energy storage sector are expected to maintain their momentum, supported by recent capacity pricing policies and favorable long-term demand from new energy sources [12] Group 5: Wind Power - The wind power sector has shown recovery in profitability, with most major turbine manufacturers entering a recovery phase, and turbine prices have increased by 5-10% since November 2024 [13] - Component manufacturers have reported significant growth in Q2, confirming the high demand in the industry [13] - The offshore wind sector is expected to see high growth in installations, driven by successful project advancements [13] Group 6: Hydrogen Energy - North American SOFC leaders are transitioning from 1GW to 2GW production capacity, with a strong outlook for stock price growth due to high visibility of future orders [15] - Long-term cost reductions in SOFC technology are anticipated to enhance its economic advantages, potentially increasing market penetration significantly [15] Group 7: Robotics - The human-shaped robot sector has seen a decline in short-term interest, but future developments are expected as new technologies and supply chains mature [15] - Domestic applications are anticipated to see growth as automation solutions are implemented in production lines, with significant developments expected by the end of 2025 [15]

人民财讯8月25日电，中信建投研报称，预计6F环节2025年第三季度、第四季度供需比为122%、 102%，2026年第三季度、第四季度供需比为105%、93%，2025年第四季度起6F将进入供需紧平衡状 态，2026年第四季度将面临0.7万吨左右的缺口，6F有望成为供需率先扭转的锂电材料环节，已具备一 定的涨价基础。中信建投预计2025年第四季度将有望看到6F加工费初步上涨2000元/吨左右，2026年中 随着供需关系进一步紧张，加工费有望进一步上涨5000—20000元/吨，带来较大业绩弹性。 转自：证券时报 ...