QCP 分析指出，年末市场处于脆弱平衡中，美联储"偏鹰式降息"下市场预计未来一年约 2、3 次降息。 在加密市场方面，随着 MSCI 评估数字资产金库型公司指数纳入资格，可能引发最高约 28 亿美元的被 动资金流出，对本就承压的加密市场构成额外冲击，尽管日本监管环境出现边际改善，但整体仍偏谨 慎。当前市场韧性可能掩盖了迈向 2026 年时容错空间明显收窄的风险。 （来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Strategy Inc, led by Michael Saylor, faces the risk of being removed from major indices like MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100, which could lead to significant passive fund outflows [1] Group 1: Potential Impact - JPMorgan estimates that if MSCI proceeds with the removal, it could trigger up to $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows [1] - The impact may further escalate if other index providers follow suit, as nearly $9 billion in market exposure is currently linked to Strategy Inc [1] Group 2: Decision Timeline - A decision regarding the potential exclusion is expected to be made by January 15 [1] - MSCI is consulting on whether to exclude companies with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets, as some market participants view these companies more like investment funds than index constituents [1]