Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October FOMC meeting, reflecting a preventive approach amid uncertainties due to the U.S. government shutdown and missing key labor market data [1][2] - The decision to cut rates was influenced by the ongoing strength of the U.S. stock market and loose financial conditions, indicating a proactive measure against potential employment downturn risks [1][2] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts while others suggest a pause, indicating a cautious stance on future rate adjustments [2][3] Market Conditions - The Fed announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, as signs of tightening liquidity in the U.S. money market have emerged, including a decrease in overnight reverse repo balances and shrinking bank reserves [3][4] - The Fed's balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, reducing its GDP ratio from a peak of 35% to approximately 21%, making the timing for halting balance sheet reduction appropriate [3][4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased significantly from 82.4% to 63.8% following the October meeting, highlighting increased uncertainty regarding short-term policy direction [3][4] Economic Outlook - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of a rebound, and with the stock market at historical highs, market volatility risks are expected to increase, potentially impacting metal prices and emerging market risk assets [4]