鲍威尔当天明确表示美联储对降息持开放态度后，全球市场迅速反应，美股三大指数集体大涨，道指飙 升2%，刷新历史新高。10年期美债收益率下跌7个基点至4.25%，2年期美债收益率降至3.68%，美元指 数走低，黄金价格收涨。 美东时间周一，鲍威尔讲话余温消退，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普"史无前例"地宣布解职美联储理事丽莎· 库克，市场情绪复杂，美股三大股指全线下挫，美元短期内似乎难以获得明显的方向性突破。 年会上，鲍威尔开篇系统阐述了对美国经济形势的判断，并指出"风险的平衡可能需要我们调整政策立 场"，这一表态为后续降息预留了空间，既审慎又明确。 鲍威尔还对美国经济运行情况进行了分析，主要包括以下几个方面。 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议演讲要点 | 主题 | 涉及内容 | 表述 | 制版 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新增就业 | 过去三个月新增就业仅3.5万/月,远低于2024年的16. | 음 | | | | 8万/月。 | | | | 失业率 | 失业率升至4.2%、仍处于低位:劳动力供需两端放 | 部 | | | 通胀水平 | 缓,形成奇特平衡,就业下行风险增加。 PCE同比2.6 ...

国内方面，两融继续增长，A股风险偏好高涨，国债收益率曲线长端上移，债券下跌，双创板块大涨。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周债券市场延续跌势。基本面和资金面仍支撑债市，但当前债市主要受风 险偏好影响。过去一段时间股市收益风险比高，存量市场里资金持续温和从安全资产流向风险资产，形 成显著"股债跷跷板"效应。上周鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的演讲超预期偏鸽，短期全球风险偏好将进一 步共振上升。当前债市点位已经具有配置价值，但短期风偏扰动仍存，建议逢调整适度配置，反向操 作，及时止盈，做好流动性管理。重视高票息资产的价值。 A股方面，近期A股市场呈现加速上涨趋势，两融等资金加速流入，市场成交量明显上涨。往后看，大 势维度，一是重点关注市场波动率变化，警惕是否有出现波动率加速抬升的迹象，二是关注增量资金变 化，尤其是两融的持续性问题、外资回流节奏等问题，近期两融交易热度开始进入极高状态，而主动型 外资则罕见开始出现回流迹象，这也指引市场投资范式可能的变化。结构上，近期市场主要风格、结构 间的分化程度进入历史高位，各强势风格方向中，大小风格切换已正在逐步发生。另外预防式降息下， 成长优于价值，结合大小风格变化，预计大盘成长亦将有 ...

美东时间2025年8月22日，鲍威尔在一年一度的杰克逊·霍尔全球央行年会发表演讲，对经济形势和货币政策进行短期展望，其主要释放三方面的边际信息 ： 一是重新评估了美国的劳动力市场，认为供需双方的放缓所达成的平衡不可持续，后续就业面临急剧恶化风险。二是关税推升通胀还在持续，但不太可能引发 工资-通胀螺旋或通胀预期-实际通胀螺旋，关税推升通胀是"一次性的"，没必要过于担忧。三是短期内，就业下行风险大于通胀上行风险，货币政策面临转 向，鲍威尔2025年以来首次释放鸽派信号。2025年以来，鲍威尔持续处于偏鹰或模棱两可的状态，本次直接的表达无疑是转鸽的信号，基本上为2025年9月 降息做了前瞻性指引。 鲍威尔在本次杰克逊·霍尔会议同时公布了修订的《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》 ，这是对美国货币政策框架5年一次的审查，上一次审查是在2020年，货 币政策框架的原型是2012年本·伯南克时期所达成的共识声明，2020年第一次修订，本次为第二次修订。相较于2020年版本，本次有四处边际变化：一是移 除了有效下限（ELB）是经济决定性特征的表述，当前经济不太可能触及零利率下限，但是仍有一定的小概率风险。二是取消了货币政策"补 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (downgraded) [5] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, achieving operating income of 9.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the half-year performance [3][13] - The company is focusing on resource expansion through both internal exploration and acquisitions, with significant progress in geological exploration leading to an increase of 3.85 tons of gold metal [31][34] - The company is accelerating its international capital layout by preparing for an overseas share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its overseas business development and optimize its capital structure [4][36] Summary by Sections Overview - The company’s performance in the first half of 2025 was driven by rising gold prices, with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit [3][13] - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating income of 4.924 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.96% and a year-on-year increase of 31.95% [13] Resource Expansion and Projects - The company is actively increasing its gold reserves through exploration and acquisitions, with notable results from the Heihe and Qinghai mining areas [31][34] - The company acquired a 52% stake in Yunnan Western Mining, enhancing its exploration rights in the region, which is expected to boost its gold reserves [34] - The construction of overseas projects is set to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025, with completion expected by mid-2027 [36] Industry Outlook - The company is optimistic about the gold price trends in the fourth quarter of 2025, with expectations of continued upward movement due to easing monetary policies and geopolitical factors [38][44] - The gold market has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with gold prices reaching historical highs [38] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 18.021 billion yuan, 19.898 billion yuan, and 22.680 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.431 billion yuan, 4.307 billion yuan, and 5.599 billion yuan [47] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 14.62, 11.64, and 8.96 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [47][49]

Core Insights - The current US economic growth shows signs of comprehensive slowdown, with a cooling labor market and weak inflation reinforcing market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [2][6][14] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will significantly impact the US dollar and US Treasury markets, with historical trends indicating that Treasury yields typically decline ahead of policy shifts [2][7][30] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global equity markets is structurally differentiated, primarily depending on the motivation behind the policy [2][8][30] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from the US indicates a broad weakening, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, marking the lowest monthly increase since October 2024 [6][14] - The unemployment rate has been on the rise, reaching 4.2% in July, further confirming the cooling labor market. Inflation data also shows weakness, with July's CPI growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8% [14][20] Interest Rate and Currency Dynamics - US Treasury yields are expected to decline ahead of the Federal Reserve's official interest rate cut, driven by the forward-looking nature of the bond market. Short-term Treasuries (e.g., 2-year) are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to long-term Treasuries (e.g., 10-year) [7][22][29] - The US dollar index typically weakens during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles. For instance, during the 2001 rate cut cycle, the dollar index fell by 13.34%, while it has already decreased by 3.20% since the first cut in 2024 [30][33] Equity Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have historically led to varied impacts on global equity markets, largely influenced by the underlying economic conditions. Passive easing in response to recession often results in significant declines in equity markets, while preemptive cuts in resilient economic conditions can support equity valuations [8][30][34] - In the context of the 2024 preemptive rate cuts, corporate earnings remain relatively robust, which has helped to improve market risk appetite and support equity markets [8][34] Recent Asset Movements - Major US stock indices have recently shown gains, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 2.20%, 2.14%, and 2.03% respectively. The healthcare, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains [5][37] - In the commodities market, LME zinc, copper, and Brent crude oil have seen increases, while gold and rebar steel have declined [5][37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, particularly focusing on how these cuts may affect the Chinese market, suggesting that while there may be short-term benefits, the overall impact may not be as significant as commonly perceived [2][28]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The current probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92% according to CME futures [3]. - The common belief is that a rate cut leads to a weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which would attract foreign capital into China [2][28]. - However, historical data shows that this assumption may not hold true, as past rate cuts have sometimes coincided with rising yields and a stronger dollar [2][8][12]. Group 2: Types of Rate Cuts - Rate cuts can be categorized into two types: recessionary cuts and preventive cuts. Recessionary cuts occur when the economy is under significant pressure, leading to a decline in yields and the dollar [8][10]. - Preventive cuts happen when economic pressure is less severe, allowing for smaller cuts that can quickly stimulate demand, often resulting in rising yields and a stronger dollar post-cut [12][15]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - The current economic indicators suggest that while there is pressure on the US economy, the situation is not dire enough to necessitate large rate cuts [25][28]. - Key metrics such as the ISM manufacturing PMI and housing sales indicate ongoing weakness, but the actual interest rates are close to natural rates, suggesting that minor cuts could suffice to stimulate the economy [19][25]. Group 4: Short-term vs Long-term Effects - In the short term, the anticipated rate cuts may provide liquidity and improve market sentiment, potentially benefiting the Chinese market [29][33]. - However, this short-term benefit may quickly reverse as the underlying economic conditions improve, leading to a potential rise in yields and the dollar, counteracting the initial positive effects [29][33]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - To maximize the benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, China could implement more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to support credit expansion [34][38]. - Additionally, sectors related to the US real estate market and traditional manufacturing may see increased demand, presenting opportunities for Chinese exports and commodities [44].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of "preventive" interest rate cuts in September 2024, with concerns over tariffs causing inflationary pressures to temporarily halt the rate cuts [1] - Recent data shows that July's non-farm employment figures were weaker than expected, and the core inflation rate for July has seen a decline in prices for core goods heavily reliant on imports [1] - The PPI data for July exceeded expectations, but its direct impact on the PCE index is limited, indicating that inflationary pressures from tariffs are manageable in the short term [1] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on include high-growth hard technology sectors such as overseas computing power supply chains and certain stabilized leaders in the new energy sector [1] - Other sectors of interest are those with clear upward trends, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, and core Chinese assets with global competitive advantages, including leading internet companies in Hong Kong [1] Group 3 - The logic of global capital rebalancing suggests that as the U.S. economic fundamentals weaken, funds will flow towards non-U.S. assets with stronger short-term growth prospects [4] - Assets likely to attract global capital include safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, as well as developed market assets with recovery expectations, such as those in Europe and Japan [4] Group 4 - A-shares are positioned to attract foreign investment due to strong performance since July, and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. post-rate cuts is expected to facilitate capital inflows [7] - The domestic economic fundamentals and policy changes anticipated in the second half of the year are expected to enhance foreign investor confidence [7] Group 5 - Historical data indicates that preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have generally led to positive performance in equity markets, with the S&P 500 showing significant gains during such periods [2][8] - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index during previous preventive rate cuts suggests potential for similar outcomes in the upcoming cycle [8] Group 6 - Foreign capital tends to favor local assets that exhibit competitive advantages, with a focus on core industries and sectors that demonstrate stable and sustainable earnings [10] - The preference for industries with high current economic momentum indicates a strategic approach to investment in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and leading internet companies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the Federal Reserve's stance from hawkish to dovish, indicating a potential resumption of interest rate cuts due to weakening economic data and external pressures, with expectations for a possible rate cut as early as September 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts after a series of reductions in late 2024, with the federal funds rate remaining in the 4.25%-4.5% range, reflecting a dilemma between preventing economic recession and controlling inflation [3][4]. - Recent changes in the economic environment have led to increased signals of a dovish shift within the Federal Reserve, with market predictions suggesting a potential rate cut in September [3][4]. Economic Indicators and Influences - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with the manufacturing PMI dropping from 52.9 in June to 49.8 in July, and non-farm payrolls in July only adding 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [7][8]. - Tariff impacts on inflation have been relatively mild, with 64% of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. companies, leading to a manageable inflation environment, as indicated by the PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in June [9]. Political and Internal Pressures - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that lower rates would benefit the economy and his political standing ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [10]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve have shifted, with an increase in dovish voices among its members, influenced by both external political pressures and changing economic conditions [10][11]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The upcoming rate cuts are expected to be preventive rather than reactive, with a high probability (91.5%) of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [12][19]. - The anticipated rate cuts may occur 2-3 times within the year, totaling 50-75 basis points, as the Federal Reserve aims to maintain flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions [20]. Global and Chinese Market Implications - The resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to have a positive impact on global and Chinese financial markets, with expectations of a weaker dollar and potential capital inflows into emerging markets [21][22]. - China's monetary policy may gain new room for easing, with potential for further rate cuts and a favorable environment for the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data and inflation concerns [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with a 75 basis point reduction expected throughout the year [4]. - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate the first rate cut in September [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive and advocates for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Fed's neutral rate [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales data is crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with expectations of a 0.5% month-on-month increase in July [5]. - Recent employment reports indicate a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs for May and June, raising concerns about the labor market [4]. - The Fed's decision-making may hinge on further employment and inflation data before the September meeting [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The list of potential successors for Fed Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating a shift in the administration's approach to leadership at the Fed [7]. - Some Fed policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year [7][8]. - Despite the shift towards easing, there are still cautious voices within the Fed, emphasizing the need to balance inflation targets with employment goals [8].

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]