报告导读： 2025 年三季度美国经济数据超预期，主要源于个人消费韧性、公共支出增 长，以及出口贡献提升。但是表现出三重" K "型分化的特征，分别为个人收入消费分化、 大小企业景气度分层和新老经济分化。预计四季度美国经济短期冲击后，后续整体韧性依 然较强。预防式降息周期仍将持续，维持 2026 年 2-3 次降息的观点。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 美国经济的韧性与三重"K"型分化——2025年三季度美国经济数据点评；报告日期： 2025.12.24 报告作者： 汪浩（分析师），登记编号：S0880521120002 梁中华（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040019 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 2025 年三季度美国 GDP ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 2025-12-19 美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表 ——2025 年 12 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 2025 年 12 月美联储降息 25BP，基本符合预期，但是内部分歧加大，表态上后续降 息更为谨慎，同时开启准备金管理购买的技术性扩表。在劳动力市场结构性变化和 美联储主席换届的背景下，我们预计 2026 年可能还有 2-3 次降息，美债利率先下后 上，美股仍有进一步支撑。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 美东时间 2025 年 12 月 10 日，美联储发布议息会议声明和经济预 测表格（SEP），随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会，我们认为主要有 四处边际变化：一是美联储降息 25BP 基本符合预期，但是美联储 内部分歧加大。12 位 FOMC 投票委员中，3 人反对，9 人赞成，这 是 2019 年以来首次美联储利率决议遭到三名投票委员反对。此外， 在美联储点阵图中，12 月的对于 2026 年降息预测比 9 月份更离 散，也反映内部分歧加大。二是美联储对美国经济和通胀边际上更 加乐观。根据经济预测表格，相对于 9 月份来说， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with increased supply but supported by exports, the fundamentals of iron ore may weaken marginally, yet there could be periods of structural shortages, and demand at the lower end is supported. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. It is expected that the price trend will not be significant, maintaining a wide - ranging oscillatory pattern. The price range for the fourth quarter is Platts 62: [90, 115], and the iron ore index is [700, 900]. The recommended industrial risk management strategy is range - bound operation [4][5][117] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Ore Price Review in 2025 - **January 15 - February 21**: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported price increases. The black market followed the stock market, with positive domestic and overseas macro - sentiments. Three hurricanes affected Western Australia ports, reducing global shipments, and the spot market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the rapid resumption of coking coal production and inventory accumulation also supported iron ore prices [6] - **February 22 - April 8**: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipping resumed, and the black market diverged from the stock market. Tariff policies and the expectation of crude steel reduction led to a downward trend in prices [7] - **April 9 - June 18**: A temporary balance was reached after risk release. After the tariff shock in early April, the iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand remained strong, with increasing hot metal production and decreasing port inventory. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but the subsequent weakening of export demand and the cooling of the US economy led to a period of low - volatility oscillation [8] - **June 19 - September 22**: Iron ore prices bottomed out in late June and then rose steadily. The anti - involution trading in the commodity market drove up the price of iron ore through the increase in steel prices and the improvement of steel mill profits. The falsification of the previous pessimistic expectations also contributed to the price rebound [9] - **September 23 - Present**: Overall demand weakened, but the supply of coking coal and the structural shortage of iron ore supported prices, resulting in a wide - ranging price oscillation. The continuous high hot metal production led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation of steel products, and the decline in steel mill profits increased the pressure of negative feedback production cuts. However, the decline in coking coal prices and the structural shortage of medium - grade ore supported the price of iron ore [11] 2. Supply - **2025 Supply Situation**: The global iron ore supply in 2025 was tight at first and then loose. As of early December 2025, the global shipment was about 1.46 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The supply in China was generally balanced, with a 0.7% year - on - year increase in imports from January to October and a 1.35% year - on - year decrease in domestic iron concentrate production. The main suppliers, Australia and Brazil, faced production and shipping difficulties due to natural disasters [14][21] - **Key Suppliers' Situations**: - **Australia**: In early 2025, the Pilbara region in Western Australia was hit by severe hurricanes, causing production stoppages, port closures, and transportation disruptions. In February, Cyclone "Zelia" forced Port Hedland to close for 3 days, and Rio Tinto's first - quarter shipments decreased by 9.35% year - on - year [23] - **Brazil**: In early 2025, heavy rainfall and floods in the northern mining areas affected mining and transportation. The export revenue of iron ore to China in the first quarter decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the shipment volume decreased by 5% - 8% [23] - **India**: It is shifting from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2025, its imports increased significantly, and exports decreased sharply. The government's policy to support the domestic steel industry and the expansion of the steel industry led to an increase in demand for iron ore [26] - **Russia**: In 2025, China's imports from Russia increased by 42.23% year - on - year. The decline in Russia's domestic steel industry demand and the optimization of the Sino - Russian railway logistics system contributed to this increase [30] - **Mongolia**: In the first 10 months of 2024, its exports to China increased by 21.84% year - on - year, mainly due to the improvement of port clearance efficiency and the construction of cross - border railway networks [31] - **Four Major Mines**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the world's four major mines increased year - on - year, but there were internal differences. Vale and FMG had obvious production increases, while BHP and Rio Tinto had some production declines or challenges. The S11D project of Vale and the Western Range project of Rio Tinto are important production - increasing projects [38][39] - **Domestic Mines**: The cumulative production of domestic iron concentrate was about 215 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35%, mainly due to safety inspections and rainfall in the north. Currently, domestic mines are in the process of resuming production [64] - **2026 Supply Outlook**: It is expected that the iron ore supply in 2026 will increase steadily, with the increment mainly coming from Simandou and Brazil. With high prices supporting shipments and new capacity coming online, shipments are expected to increase by 2% year - on - year, equivalent to about 30 million tons of iron concentrate [68] 3. Demand - **Overall Demand Outlook in 2026**: The demand pattern of the black market has shifted from domestic - driven to external - driven. In 2026, the "weak domestic and strong overseas" structure is expected to continue. Domestic infrastructure and real estate demand will be weak, while the export chain will be the main support for black metal demand. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas manufacturing demand, which is beneficial for China's steel exports [69][70] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate industry is still in a bottom - grinding stage, and sales are expected to continue to decline in 2026. Infrastructure investment has also shown signs of weakening. However, the new construction area of real estate may improve marginally in 2026, which may reduce the drag on rebar demand [76][77] - **Hot Metal Production**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 2.3748 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. Currently, steel mill profits have declined, but with the concession of coking coal prices, there is still some production profit. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel industry has been alleviated, and hot metal production has decreased [83] - **Steel Mill Supply Structure and Downstream Demand**: In 2025, downstream steel mill demand was supported by exports. The demand for building materials decreased, while the demand for plate steel maintained positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down. Steel mills adjusted their supply structure through production transfer [86][87] - **Export Support**: Overseas exports are still an important support for steel demand. In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of steel exports will remain positive, but the decline may narrow further [95] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to the impact of hurricanes and high hot metal production in the first three quarters of 2025, port inventory decreased marginally. Currently, shipments have recovered, and port inventory may start to accumulate again, which will suppress the upward space of iron ore prices. There is also a structural shortage of iron ore, especially for the medium - grade ore required by steel mills [98] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with a relatively high proportion of trading ore. The global iron ore floating inventory is currently high, and the arrival rhythm of iron ore is expected to accelerate. The shipping cost of iron ore has increased, and its weight in the iron ore price has also increased [100][103] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of the far - month contracts has narrowed. In 2026, attention can be paid to the opportunities of structural shortages between ore powders and months for arbitrage trading [107] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has significantly improved in the past six months. In 2026, attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore [110] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore was significant. In 2026, this effect is expected to continue under the background of low - profit operation of steel mills [112][113] - **Volatility**: In 2025, the implied volatility of iron ore options was generally decreasing. It is expected that the volatility will remain at a low level, but attention should be paid to potential volatility increases due to sudden macro - events [115]

【付鹏说｜市场观察】付鹏的财经世界 2026市场的核心主线—— ☆视频链接： ☆要点梳理： ★美股已进入"高估值+高波动"的状态，上游通胀与下游盈利的博弈成为市场核心矛盾。 ★展望2026，利率曲线的走向将直接取决于AI应用端的落地情况。 ★当前美股市场的核心矛盾并非美联储降息政策本身，也不是宏观就业数据的短期波动，而是"AI产业链上游投入与下游产出的匹配度"这一产业本质问题， 本质上是生产力提升后生产关系能否适配的核心命题。 ★市场稳定性下降的核心症结，在于AI产业链的发展瓶颈——上游大规模资本支出已落地，但下游应用端的商业价值仍存疑。 ★这一产业矛盾与利率曲线的结构特征形成完美映射：从美联储视角看，短端利率反映对就业市场的担忧，长端利率则体现对通胀的顾虑。 ★何为"预防式降息"？其核心逻辑在于防范10年期美债利率突破收敛三角形下沿——若短端利率持续下行并拉动长端利率同步走低，将直接释放经济衰退信 号，对美股市场形成剧烈冲击。 付 知名宏观经济学家 《见证逆潮》作者 了解内容详情 | 扫码加 ...

美联储12月继续降息25个基点，符合市场预期，预计明年仍有1次降息。美联储官员对经济增长和通胀 前景更加乐观，对失业率的预测和9月保持一致，鲍威尔也提到当前更侧重于就业下行的风险。因此本 次降息仍属于"预防式降息"范畴，而政策利率回归中性后，后续降息门槛进一步提高，利率下行预期对 价格提振作用或有所减弱。但白银供应格局偏紧叠加市场情绪乐观将继续支撑白银价格，短期白银价格 或继续震荡偏强运行，警惕市场情绪转变可能引发的调整风险。 美联储如期降息并启动扩表 继美联储在2025年9月重启降息、10月再次降息之后，12月如期降息，年内已累计降息75个基点。北京 时间2025年12月11日凌晨，美联储公布年内最后一次会议决议，降息25个基点，至3.5%~3.75%。三名 委员反对此次决议，米兰要求降息50个基点，堪萨斯联储主席施密德以及芝加哥联储主席古儿斯比要求 维持利率不变，美联储内部分歧加大。 此外，美联储在12月启动购买短期美国国债，以维持充足的准备金供应，时点和规模超过此前预期。点 阵图维持2026—2027年各降息一次的指引。鲍威尔整体表态"偏鸽"，虽然暗示可能暂停降息，直到就业 或经济出现某种偏离基准前景的 ...

美联储12月继续降息25个基点，符合市场预期，预计明年仍有1次降息。美联储官员对经济增长和通胀 前景更加乐观，对失业率的预测和9月保持一致，鲍威尔也提到当前更侧重于就业下行的风险。因此本 次降息仍属于"预防式降息"范畴，而政策利率回归中性后，后续降息门槛进一步提高，利率下行预期对 价格提振作用或有所减弱。但白银供应格局偏紧叠加市场情绪乐观将继续支撑白银价格，短期白银价格 或继续震荡偏强运行，警惕市场情绪转变可能引发的调整风险。 美联储如期降息并启动扩表 金银比价进一步修复 近期，白银价格在黄金价格高位盘整的状态下大幅飙升，金银比价已降至66附近，接近2023年的低点。 虽然黄金和白银均被视为贵金属，大概率齐涨共跌，但是两者基础属性存在区别，故两者的走势亦存在 较大的差别。白银在工业领域有着广泛应用，工业需求占比接近60%，黄金的工业需求占比在10%左 右。故白银价格对经济周期比较敏感，变动较黄金价格更为明显。黄金具有较强的抗通胀属性，但货币 属性所带来的避险属性影响会更大。黄金的主要需求在于投资或避险，一般在市场走势偏弱时充当通胀 此外，美联储在12月启动购买短期美国国债，以维持充足的准备金供应，时点和规模超 ...

【导读】业内专家解读美联储降息，弱美元环境有利于全球多元资产配置 中国基金报记者曹雯璟张玲 美东时间12月10日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%～3.75%区间。尽管降息25个 基点符合市场预期，但6年来首次出现3名委员投出反对票，暴露其内部分歧加大。 美联储在最新声明中表示，现有指标显示经济活动以适度速度扩张，但今年就业增长放缓，失业率在9 月前有所上升，近期指标也与这些情况相符。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉指出，美联储连续第三次降息，释放了明确的宽松信号。在当前美联储主席 引领下，未来降息路径趋缓，但内部分歧显著，下一任主席大概率会更激进。后续经济韧性、通胀黏性 及就业市场变化将成为关键变量，若数据超预期，则需更谨慎的货币政策调整。"此次降息是全球流动 性拐点，但市场需关注未来美联储政策转向的节奏差异。" "此次投票出现6年来首次3人反对的分歧，既有委员主张更大幅降息，也有委员坚持维持利率以防通胀 反弹。"上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚分析称，未来仍有降息可能，但节奏会显著放缓， 点阵图显示2026年至2027年各降息一次。多家机构预测美联储1月大概率按兵不动，而特朗普提名的具 ...

降息空间亦有限 在如期降息25个基点后，美联储实现连续第三次降息，每次均降25个基点，今年累计下降75 个基点。 【导读】业内专家解读美联储降息，弱美元环境有利于全球多元资产配置 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张玲 美东时间12月10日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%～3.75%区间。尽 管降息25个基点符合市场预期，但6年来首次出现3名委员投出反对票，暴露其内部分歧加 大。 受访人士认为，此次降息符合市场预期，明年仍有降息可能，但在"通胀保持高位+失业率不 会跳升"的经济基本面下，降息的空间和可能性都在缩减。同时，美联储降息带来的弱美元环 境，将有利于全球多元资产配置。 明年降息步伐或放缓 美联储在最新声明中表示，现有指标显示经济活动以适度速度扩张，但今年就业增长放缓， 失业率在9月前有所上升，近期指标也与这些情况相符。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉指出，美联储连续第三次降息，释放了明确的宽松信号。在当前 美联储主席引领下，未来降息路径趋缓，但内部分歧显著，下一任主席大概率会更激进。后 续经济韧性、通胀黏性及就业市场变化将成为关键变量，若数据超预期，则需更谨慎的货币 政策调整。"此次降息是全球流 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 表态偏鸽，扩表启动 ——美联储 12 月利率决议点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 背景：美东时间 12 月 10 日（北京时间 12 月 11 日凌晨），美联储公布 12 月利率 决议，宣布降息 25bp，降幅符合市场预期。会议公布了最新的点阵图。 解读：降息幅度符合预期，内部分歧较大。联储连续第三次降息 25bp，幅度符合 市场预期，其中一人（米兰）继续主张降息 50bp，两名票委支持按兵不动，共计 三人反对。点阵图预测 2026 年降息 1 次，但参考意义有限。本次的点阵图对于 2026 年的预测中位数仍然落在 3.25%-3.5%区间，暗示降息一次，范围 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly reversed, driven by comments from multiple Fed officials supporting a rate cut due to a weakening labor market and declining consumer confidence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - At least four Federal Reserve officials have publicly expressed support for a rate cut in December, indicating a shift towards a more dovish stance within the Fed [2][4]. - Fed Governor Stephen Milan stated that the rising unemployment rate is a result of overly tight monetary policy and emphasized the need to lower rates to neutral levels [2]. - New York Fed President John Williams noted that there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed mixed results, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, the highest level since November 2021 [4][5]. - The consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 in November, down 6.8 points from October, marking a seven-month low [5]. - Retail sales in September grew by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, and below expectations [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 84.7%, an increase of 45.6 percentage points from the previous week [4]. - Analysts suggest that if the market maintains a rate cut probability above 70%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may align with the rate curve and support a December cut [5]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in both December and January [5][6]. Group 4: Internal Divisions within the Federal Reserve - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there remains significant internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some regional Fed presidents expressing concerns about persistent inflation [7]. - The core conflict within the Fed revolves around the inability to bring inflation down to target levels while also observing signs of labor market weakness [7]. - Analysts indicate that the Fed is facing its most severe internal divisions in nearly 30 years, complicating its decision-making process [7].