今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】Mysteel调研显示，截至2月20日，建材市 场仍未启动，部分重点项目工地预计近两天陆续开工，其余大 部分项目则要等到2月22日后才开始恢复施工。评：综合来看， 预计节后钢价将在钢厂惯性推涨、低库存与成本支撑下迎来短 暂 "开门红"，但需求恢复节奏、钢厂复产进度及库存消化情 况将成为关键变量。后续市场大概率进入震荡调整阶段，行情 持续性依赖需求实际释放强度，短期震荡偏多运行。 【短评-白银】由于一场严重的冬季风暴席卷美国东北部， 导致航班取消和延误，美国国会众议院和参议院均将本周的首 轮投票推迟至2月24日。此次投票推迟正值部分美政府部门"停 摆"之际，美国国土安全部也受到影响。美国总统特朗普将于 24日在国会大厦发表国情咨文。评：节假日期间美股震荡走 低，市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银做多力量小于黄金。关注后 续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震 荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月24日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z001 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The US economy still faces downward pressure, which is bearish for silver, and silver may fluctuate passively following gold, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The domestic methanol market has high开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, but the price may fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment. - The manganese - silicon market remains in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost. - The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The steel price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday. - Fed officials have dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical and US political uncertainties still support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility. - The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal. - The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic palm oil price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center. - The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. - Copper production in January exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. - Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand. - PX supply and demand will weaken during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, mainly supported by geopolitics, and short - term trading is recommended. - The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - PVC production is stable, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: US retail sales data shows economic downward pressure, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold and fluctuate, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [1]. - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks dampen interest - rate cut expectations, but geopolitical and political uncertainties support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US commercial crude inventory increased, and the market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran. Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, with supply pressure still existing [10]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PX**: PX load is expected to run at a high level in February, but supply - demand will weaken during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing rapidly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall. The demand side has support, and the price may fluctuate widely [3]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon market has loose supply and demand, with high upstream inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [3]. - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [4]. - **Copper**: January copper production exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand [7]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal [5]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility [5].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel本周统计523座炼焦煤样本矿山数 据，原煤日产192.5万吨，环比减少5.3万吨。其中山西原煤日 产111.2万吨，环比减少4.5万吨。新增停产煤矿27座，涉及产 能2520万吨。新增复产煤矿1座，产能60万吨。评：整体来看， 焦煤基本面无明显变化，相对利好或有三方面：其一是下游冬 储仍在进行，对焦煤现货带来一定支撑；其二是春节临近，煤 矿有提前停产放假的预期；其三是中东局势紧张，原油地缘溢 价带动能源类商品走强。不过，缺乏国内政策面和焦煤基本面 支撑，焦煤期货依然缺乏持续上涨的动能，预计近期价格仍将 维持区间运行。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认 为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高 位。评：美联储官员讲话引发市场对美联储暂不降息的预期， 黄金再度下跌。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领的代表团抵达阿曼 首都马斯喀特，将出席与美国代表团举行的核问题谈判。地缘 扰动或有所缓解，黄金支持力量减弱。关注今晚非农数据，贵 金属市场波动或进一步加剧，黄金短期偏空，中期依然看高位 ...

美国财政部在周三公布的季度再融资声明中，决定维持现行中长期债券发行规模不变，符合市场普遍预 期。此举打消了此前关于其可能调整发债结构以降低长期借贷成本的市场猜测。 摩根士丹利策略师团队在其再融资预览报告中指出，美联储的购买计划降低了财政部向市场"过度供 应"短期国债、超出私人部门吸纳能力的风险。 财政部明确表示，计划在"至少未来几个季度内"保持附息债券与浮动利率票据的拍卖额度稳定，这一前 瞻指引已延续使用两年。本季度再融资总额为1250亿美元，具体构成如下： 声明指出，财政部正密切关注美联储为维持银行体系充足储备而自去年12月启动的、持续至今年4月的 月度短期国债购买计划（规模为400亿美元），以及私人部门对短期国债日益增长的需求。此次决定延 续了其长期奉行的"规律且可预测"的债务管理原则。尽管新一届政府关注降低融资成本，但任何削减发 行的举措都可能违背这一核心承诺。 "尽管本届政府对降低融资成本措施的重视，重新引发了市场关于是否会通过更积极地调整 发行组合来达成此目标的疑问，但我们预计财政部目前不会采取此类行动。" 牛津经济研究院首席分析师John Canavan评论称： "声明本身传递了非常稳健的信号，财 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel统计全国230家独立焦企样本：产能 利用率为70.75%，减0.66%；焦炭日均产量49.51万吨，减0.46 万吨； 焦炭库存43.99万吨， 增1.74万吨； 炼焦煤总库 存 1035.34万吨，增40.13万吨；焦煤可用天数15.7天，增0.75 天。评：焦炭供应受环保及利润影响难有明显增量，而下游钢 厂复产预期仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，现货提涨落 地后或暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。 【短评-白银】美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高 于预期的48.5，创2022年8月以来新高，主要受新订单和产出稳 健增长的提振。评：美国经济数据持续向好，对白银基本面存 在一定支撑，但近期白银受黄金影响较大，美元指数持续反 弹，利空黄金，白银短期或跟随黄金波动，中期暂看高位震 荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月03日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nz ...

华尔街无法判断沃什是敌是友 华尔街尚不确定凯文・沃什会是盟友还是对手。 华尔街尚不确定凯文・沃什会是盟友还是对手。 投资者们乐观地认为，沃什将维护美联储珍视的独立性。 但他们同时也担心，他可能远非特朗普总统所要求的那种主张宽松货币政策的主席，因为沃什对缩减央行债 券持有量表现出了极大的热情。 这种矛盾的观点在周五的市场中得到了体现：股市下跌，债券收益率保持平稳，美元走强， 华尔街无法判断沃什是敌是友 投资者们乐观地认为，沃什将维护美联储珍视的独立性。 但他们同时也担心，他可能远非特朗普总统所要求的那种主张宽松货币政策的主席，因为沃什对缩减央行债 券持有量表现出了极大的热情。 这种矛盾的观点在周五的市场中得到了体现：股市下跌，债券收益率保持平稳，美元走强，而黄金和白银则 经历了四十多年来表现最糟糕的一天。 沃什在 2006 年至 2011 年期间担任美联储理事，并因长期主张低利率和大规模购债会推高物价而赢得了 **"通胀鹰派"的声誉 **。 最近，他表示美联储应该更快地降息。 但他同时也继续主张，央行应当缩减充斥着美国国债的资产负债表 —— 一些投资者认为，此举可能会削弱降 息带来的影响。 一些领先的投资者对这 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】中国甲醇港口样本库存量147.21万吨，周上 升1.46万吨；甲醇样本生产企业库存42.41万吨，周下降1.42万 吨，样本企业订单待发26.57万吨，周上升2.74万吨；江苏太仓 甲醇市场价2282元/吨，下降2元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率 89.92%，环比-1.18%；下游 总产能利 用率71.26%，周下 降 1.3%。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求下降，甲醇港口库存 继续积累，江苏沿江主流库区提货减弱。内地甲醇市场窄幅震 荡，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈成交一 般。甲醇港口库存高位上升，现货市场表现尚可，预计短期震 荡偏强。 【短评-黄金】美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已 获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府再次面临部分 "停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗 尽。评：美国总统特朗普召开其第二任期第十次内阁会议后的 不到一个小时内，黄金再度反弹。但是黄金白银大幅波动后， 表明市场的恐高心理，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月30日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzf ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变， 在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联储 主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米 兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初步企稳迹 象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。 评：鲍威尔讲话表示，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下 一届美联储主席远离政治。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及 美联储主席更迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度创新高，注意管控风 险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-PTA】根据统计数据来看，现如今聚酯市场整体库 存集中在14-24天；具体产品方面，其中POY库存至14-23天， FDY库存至12-22天附近，而DTY库存则至13-25天左右。评：聚 酯库存不高。年底终端需求转淡，织机开工率稳步下滑，部分 聚酯企业开启检修，但PTA工厂亦坚持控产，社会库存延续去 化，PTA现货压力不大。近期成本端原油表现偏强，PTA绝对价 格仍主要跟随成本运行，关注原料市场走势。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月29日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com ...

Core Insights - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) reports a divergence in central bank balance sheets globally, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) reducing their asset sizes while emerging market central banks like India and Brazil are increasing theirs [2][3] Group 1: Central Bank Asset Trends - As of Q3 2025, the ECB leads with total assets of $7.13 trillion, followed closely by China and the U.S. with $6.62 trillion and $6.59 trillion respectively, collectively holding over half of global central bank assets [4] - The Federal Reserve is projected to reduce its balance sheet by $0.31 trillion in 2025, while the ECB is expected to decrease by €0.28 trillion, reflecting a shift in focus towards combating inflation through interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening [4][5] - By the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve and ECB's asset sizes are expected to decline by over 25% and 28% from their 2022 peaks [4] Group 2: Emerging Market Central Banks - Emerging market central banks, such as those in India and Brazil, are facing a "trilemma" where they must manage domestic inflation, currency stability, and capital outflow risks, leading to a passive expansion of their balance sheets [5] - Brazil's central bank is expected to see its asset size grow nearly 20% by 2024 compared to 2022, driven by economic growth and increased demand for currency [5] Group 3: Future Projections - By 2026, the divergence in central bank balance sheets is expected to continue, with the Federal Reserve likely to adopt a cautious approach to balance sheet management, while the ECB and Bank of England may maintain their current asset levels [6] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to gradually normalize its monetary policy, leading to a mild and orderly reduction in its balance sheet [6] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation Changes - The divergence in central bank policies is expected to influence global asset allocation, encouraging capital to flow back to emerging markets as risk appetite improves and U.S. Treasury yields decline [7] - There is a structural shift towards increasing gold holdings and reducing dollar-denominated assets among central banks, with expectations that the dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves will continue to decline [7] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Policy Debate - The Federal Reserve is currently facing a debate over whether to continue expanding its balance sheet or to withdraw liquidity, with differing opinions among potential chair candidates [9] - Some candidates advocate for aggressive balance sheet reduction to avoid inflation and market distortions, while others suggest halting reductions to prevent market turmoil [9] - The core debate centers on whether the federal funds rate should be the primary policy tool, with the balance sheet serving as a secondary measure [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and is moving downward due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [7] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, initiated monthly purchases of $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds, and restarted balance - sheet expansion [8] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is approaching a critical point, and international oil prices have rebounded rapidly, but the rise is pulsed and not trending [4][42] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to become the leading sector of the new upward market, driven by TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure [44][45] - The appreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which is conducive to the accelerated influx of international capital into China [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The United States' series of actions, such as arresting the Venezuelan president, seizing oil tankers on the high seas, and attempting to buy Greenland, have brought great uncertainty to the global economy. The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, possibly leading to a "flight from US assets" trend [6] - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is estimated to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% - 37%, which is expected to hit a record high, indicating the continuation of the AI boom [6][44] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine and contracting globally, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [6] US Economic Data - The US core CPI in December was 2.6%, lower than expected, with zero month - on - month growth (but the data may be underestimated). The PPI of US commodities in November increased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.9% month - on - month, indicating an upward inflation trend [11][14] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 198,000, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, the employment boom declined, and the number of voluntary corporate layoffs increased [16][19] - The total retail and food sales in the US in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, possibly due to seasonal factors, but overall consumption has weakened. The import value of capital goods in October was $94.4 billion, showing signs of weakness, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [22][25] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in December, while the manufacturing and service PMI price indices continued to expand, indicating that the US is sliding into stagflation [28][30] Global Economic Situation - The eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to contract in December, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US reciprocal tariffs [33] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the yield of Japan's 10 - year Treasury bonds soared to 2%, and the large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US Treasuries, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [35] Asset Allocation - The international political order is disordered, accelerating the re - allocation of global financial assets, mainly flowing to China. The adjustment of the Chinese stock market is expected to end in the first half of next week, and then resume the upward trend [41] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive in the rising market, and the CSI 500 index is expected to lead the new upward market [40][52] - TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure point to the high - prosperity direction of the semiconductor equipment sector. The semiconductor equipment ETF has completed an upward breakthrough, and the chip ETF is about to break through upward, and the semiconductor industry chain is expected to replace commercial aerospace as the leading sector of the new upward market [44][45] - The appreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which is conducive to the accelerated influx of international capital into China [49]