今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3677.1万 吨，环比增加212.6万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量3059.6万吨， 环比增加244.8万吨。澳洲发运量2113.7万吨，环比增加163.1 万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1867.6万吨，环比增加173.0万 吨。巴西发运量945.9万吨，环比增加81.8万吨。评：综合来 看，1月钢厂复产和冬储补库预期将带来需求边际增量，供应端 海外矿山年末发运冲量后1月有季节性回落预期，供应压力有望 得到缓解，基本面环比改善预期对矿价形成有效支撑，中长期 基于矿山产能释放周期背景维持偏空判断。 【短评-沥青】重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156-3500元/ 吨；山东，2870-3190元/吨；华南，2900-2950元/吨；华东， 3000-3120元/吨；上周沥青开工率环比回升3.7个百分点至 31.3%，较去年同期高了5.4个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万 吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减 幅为12.1%。评：南美局势进一步升级。在此背景下， ...

转自：北京日报客户端 记账式国债承销团成员、储蓄国债承销团成员，中央国债登记结算有限责任公司、中国证券登记结算有 限责任公司、中国外汇交易中心、上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所、北京证券交易所： 现公布2026年第一季度关键期限国债、短期国债、超长期一般国债、储蓄国债发行有关安排（见附 件）。执行中如有变动，以届时国债发行文件为准。 财办债〔2025〕37号 关于公布2026年第一季度国债发行有关安排的通知 ...

人民财讯1月4日电，财政部办公厅公布2026年第一季度关键期限国债、短期国债、超长期一般国债、储蓄国债发行有关安排。其中，2026年第一季度超长期 一般国债发行将于1月14日启动。 | | | 衣】: 2020年第一字反大使用吹凹顶久】 文件 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 月份 | 期限(年) | 招标日期 | 首发 续发 | 付息方式 | | | 2 10 | 1月7日 1月9日 | 续发 续发 | 按年付息 按半年付息 | | 1月 | 1 | 1月14日 | 首发 | 按年付息 | | | 7 | 1月21日 | 续发 | 按年付息 | | | 3 | 1月23日 | 续发 | 按年付息 | | | 5 | 1月23日 | 首发 | 按年付息 | | | 2 | 2月4日 | 续发 | 按年付息 | | | 1 | 2月6日 | 续发 | 按年付息 | | 2月 | 7 | 2月10日 | 续发 | 按年付息 | | | 3 | 2月24日 | 首发 | 按年付息 | | | 10 | 2月24日 | 首发 | 按半年付息 | | | 5 | 2月25日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on Warren Buffett's investment philosophy and legacy, emphasizing the importance of his investment principles and the implications of his retirement for investors and the market [1][9][20]. Group 1: Buffett's Investment Principles - Principle One: Avoid blindly copying Buffett's stock-picking strategy; instead, invest 90% in S&P 500 index funds and 10% in short-term government bonds for stability [11][14]. - Principle Two: If choosing stocks independently, focus on a few high-quality companies rather than diversifying too much; Buffett's portfolio is heavily weighted in a few key stocks [15]. - Principle Three: Maintain a long-term perspective and be prepared to endure market fluctuations; successful investors often hold stocks through downturns [16]. Group 2: The Concept of "Economic Moat" - Principle Four: Invest in companies with a "moat," meaning they possess a sustainable competitive advantage that can withstand market changes [17]. - Principle Five: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," highlighting the need for courage in investment decisions during market volatility [18]. Group 3: Legacy and Future of Berkshire Hathaway - Buffett's retirement raises questions about the future of Berkshire Hathaway and whether the company's success can continue without his direct influence [20][21]. - The article suggests that Buffett's investment philosophy will remain relevant, but the challenge lies in whether successors can uphold these principles effectively [20].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. short-term funding markets experienced typical year-end tension, but the Federal Reserve's actions helped maintain liquidity and prevent a significant squeeze [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve renewed its buying of short-term government debt to support liquidity in the funding markets [1] - Heavy utilization of the Standing Repo Facility by the Federal Reserve contributed to the flow of cash in the markets [1] Group 2: Impact on Liquidity - Market participants noted that the Federal Reserve's interventions were effective in preventing a larger liquidity squeeze during the year-end period [1]

Group 1: Digital Currency and Banking - CITIC Securities reports that digital RMB is evolving from a "central bank liability" model to a "deposit currency" model, which will enhance the stability of bank liabilities and improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [1] - The transition to a deposit currency model will provide banks with stronger internal incentives to promote digital RMB, making it a crucial tool for both corporate and retail sectors [1] - Banks are advised to shift their focus from qualification to capability in digital RMB services, emphasizing scenario-based professional services to capitalize on the increasing penetration rate of digital RMB [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Treasury Bonds - A survey indicates that respondents expect the Federal Reserve to purchase approximately $220 billion in short-term Treasury bonds over the next 12 months, with a monthly purchase of about $40 billion planned [2] - The Federal Reserve has already purchased around $38 billion in short-term Treasury bonds this month and will conduct two more operations in January [2] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to achieve their best annual increase since 1979, having risen over 65% this year, driven by central bank purchases and concerns over sovereign debt [2] - Despite recent volatility, both gold and silver prices are stabilizing, with analysts predicting further increases due to ongoing economic conditions [2] Group 4: Indian Market Dynamics - The Indian rupee's weakness and expectations of an end to the interest rate cut cycle are leading to record outflows from Indian sovereign bonds, with $1.6 billion sold in December alone [3] - The Indian stock market is projected to have its worst performance relative to other Asian markets in nearly 30 years, influenced by high valuations, slowing profit growth, and lack of credible AI-related investment opportunities [3] - Foreign investors withdrew $1.7 billion in December, contributing to a record annual outflow of $17.9 billion, exacerbated by the declining rupee and stalled trade agreements with the U.S. [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储政策制定者在12月会议上决定开始购买短期国债，他们认为金融系统中的准备金已降至被认 为"适度充裕（ample）"的水平，这一水平由短期融资成本的上升所体现。 美联储表示，将每月购入约400亿美元的短期国债，之后会逐步减少购买量。截至目前，美联储本月已 购入约380亿美元的短期国债，并将在1月份再进行两次此类操作。 新华财经北京12月31日电当地时间周二公布的美联储12月会议纪要写到，美联储调查显示，总体而言， 受访者预计，在接下来的12个月里，美联储的短期国债购买规模约为2200亿美元，尽管受访者对预期购 买规模的预估存在较大差异。 ...

当地时间周二公布的美联储12月会议纪要写到，美联储调查显示，总体而言，受访者预计，在接下来的12个月里，美 联储的短期国债购买规模约为2200亿美元，尽管受访者对预期购买规模的预估存在较大差异。 美联储政策制定者在12月会议上决定开始购买短期国债，他们认为金融系统中的准备金已降至被认为"适度充裕 (ample)"的水平，这一水平由短期融资成本的上升所体现。 美联储表示，将每月购入约400亿美元的短期国债，之后会逐步减少购买量。截至目前，美联储本月已购入约380亿美 元的短期国债，并将在1月份再进行两次此类操作。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于73.47一线下方，今日开盘于76.23美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报73.27美元/盎司，下跌3.82%，最高触及76.40美元/盎司，最低下探72.43美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 昨日白银是早盘开盘在72.381的位置后行情先回落，日线最低给到了71.066的位置后行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了 78.112的位置后整理，日线最终收线在了76.21的位置后，日线以一根上影线 ...

会议纪要显示，在克服内部巨大分歧于三周前决定继续降息的同时，大多数官员预计，若通胀下行趋势 符合他们预期，未来适合进一步降息。不过，部分决策者认为，降息行动应该暂停"一段时间"，体现 出，美联储对明年初降息态度谨慎。 美东时间30日周二，美联储公布12月9日至10日的货币政策会议纪要，其中写道，在讨论货币政策前景 时，与会者对美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的政策立场是否具有限制性表达了不同的看法。 "大多数（Most）与会者认为，若通胀如预期那样逐步下降，则可能适合进一步"降息。 关于进一步降息的幅度和时机，"部分"（some）与会者表示，根据他们对经济前景的预 测，在本次会议降息后，"可能需要一段时间（for some time）保持（联邦基金利率）目标 区间不变"。 "少数（a few）与会者指出，这种做法可以让决策者评估，（FOMC）委员会近期所采取的 更趋中性政策立场对劳动力市场和经济活动有何滞后影响，同时也能让决策者有时间对通胀 回升至2%更有信心。 本次会议纪要也暴露了美联储决策层对12月降息的分歧。 纪要写道，与会者指出，通胀率自今年年初以来有所上升，并保持在较高水平，现有指标显示经济活动 以温和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, reflecting a divided opinion among officials regarding the balance between supporting the labor market and managing inflation concerns [2][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to cut the key funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, marking the most dissent since 2019 [2][5]. - Some officials indicated that further cuts may be appropriate if inflation decreases as expected, but there are concerns about the aggressiveness of future adjustments [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Officials expressed confidence in moderate economic expansion but noted downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, leading to a divided perspective among policymakers [5]. - The committee anticipates another rate cut in 2026 and potentially one more in 2027, bringing the funds rate down to near 3%, which is considered neutral for economic growth [7]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Data - There are concerns that progress towards the 2% inflation target has stalled, with some officials attributing inflationary pressures to President Trump's tariffs, although they expect these effects to be temporary [8]. - Recent economic reports indicate a slow labor market with hiring remaining sluggish, while inflation is easing but still distant from the Fed's target [9]. Group 4: Policy Changes and Future Actions - The FOMC has resumed its bond-buying program, acquiring $40 billion a month in short-term Treasury bills to alleviate pressures in short-term funding markets [13]. - The committee noted that without the resumption of this quantitative easing program, there could be significant declines in reserves, potentially falling below the Fed's "ample" regime for the banking system [14].