Group 1 - The latest U.S. economic data has weakened market optimism regarding further interest rate cuts, while unexpected declines in oil inventories and concerns over Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have contributed to stable oil prices [1][2] - As of September 25, 2023, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for November delivery settled at $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of $0.01, while Brent crude oil for November delivery rose by $0.11 to $69.42 per barrel [1] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian ports have disrupted oil export facilities, which typically export around 2 million barrels of crude oil daily, leading to increased market volatility and risk premiums [1][3] Group 2 - BP's "2025 Energy Outlook" report indicates that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2030 due to slower-than-expected improvements in energy efficiency, abandoning the previous forecast of peak oil demand by 2024 [2][4] - The report highlights three factors contributing to the resilience of oil demand: technological delays in clean energy adoption, the path dependency of developing countries on oil during industrialization, and conflicting policy pressures from carbon border taxes in Europe and infrastructure investments in Asia [3][4] Group 3 - The geopolitical risk premium from Ukraine's attacks is estimated to add $3 to $5 per barrel to oil prices, while supply stability is influenced by the recent agreement between the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan region for oil exports [4] - Current oil prices oscillate between $64 and $69 per barrel, reflecting a dynamic balance of multiple soft power factors, with potential for increased volatility if Ukraine continues asymmetric warfare [4]