BP在其《2025年能源展望》报告中表示，由于能源效率提升低于预期，全球石油需求将在2030年前持续增长。该公司在该报告中放弃了2024年的预测，即 石油需求最早可能在今年达峰。当地时间9月25日，伊拉克总理苏达尼在其社交媒体账号发表声明称，已达成一项"历史性协议"，巴格达中央政府石油部将 接收库尔德自治区（库区）油田生产的原油，并通过伊拉克与土耳其两国间输油管道进行出口。 邓正红软实力模型揭示，当前石油市场"震荡不破位"现象背后的深层逻辑：在经济预期修正、地缘风险溢价、需求韧性重构三股软实力的动态平衡中，石油 定价权博弈已进入"去单极化的软实力制衡"新阶段。经济预期软实力衰减，降息幻灭与美元的反向加持。美国8月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，非农就 业数据超预期，经济"不着陆"迹象削弱美联储降息预期。根据邓正红软实力模型，当货币政策工具与市场预期产生背离时，美元计价的大宗商品将呈现"硬 实力收缩、软实力震荡"特征。当前油价在每桶64~70美元区间徘徊，正是市场对"美元信用软实力"与"石油需求软实力"双重评估的具象化体现。 地缘冲突软实力博弈，袭击事件中的威慑价值转化。乌克兰对俄罗斯两大港口的精准打击（新 ...

Core Insights - Investors remain optimistic about the easing of trade tensions, while oil prices show slight upward movement amidst concerns of oversupply and uncertainty in tariff negotiations [1] - The U.S. Energy Secretary signals government support for increased oil production to alleviate market fears related to trade friction, indicating a dual strategy of soft and hard power in U.S. energy policy [2] - The ongoing geopolitical discussions between the U.S. and Russia regarding Ukraine may lead to increased oil supply in the global market if a resolution is reached [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On April 25, 2023, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, up $0.23, with a weekly decline of 1.6% [1] - Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.87 per barrel, up $0.32, with a weekly decline of 2.6% [1] - Concerns over President Trump's trade measures impacting economic activity and energy demand have led to significant declines in oil prices this month [1] Group 2: U.S. Energy Policy - The U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, emphasized that trade turmoil is a temporary phenomenon and that the government fully supports increasing crude oil production [1] - The Trump administration is applying pressure on OPEC to increase production, reflecting a composite strategy of soft and hard power [2] - The U.S. aims to reshape global energy rules through market expectation management and strategic communication [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics - Discussions between U.S. and Russian officials regarding the Ukraine conflict have shown progress, with both sides reportedly close to an agreement [1] - If the Ukraine war concludes, it could lead to an influx of Russian oil into the global market, potentially increasing supply [1] - Russia's engagement with Iran on energy projects and its participation in Ukraine negotiations demonstrate its dual-track resource integration capabilities [3] Group 4: Market Adaptation and Resilience - The U.S. is experiencing a decline in refined oil inventories alongside a rebound in demand, showcasing its ability to adjust energy structure dynamically [3] - The Brent crude oil's persistent backwardation reflects market adaptation to political risks and supply-demand realities [3] - U.S. oil companies face a breakeven pressure of $50 per barrel, testing their cost adaptability amid government policy signals [3] Group 5: Soft Power Dynamics - The Iranian oil minister's emphasis on Russia's stabilizing role within OPEC reflects a struggle for value leadership within the organization [4] - The geopolitical energy diplomacy between the U.S. and Russia transcends mere geopolitical concerns, aiming to reshape crisis resolution and energy flow rules [4] - The current oil market exhibits characteristics of "soft power counteraction," with the U.S. stabilizing market expectations and Russia expanding its energy narrative [5]