Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas Exane initiates coverage on 12 U.S. aerospace and defense companies, suggesting selective investment due to pressures in commercial aviation and anticipated growth in defense spending by 2026 [1] Commercial Aviation - The firm prefers parts and subsystem suppliers over large OEMs, favoring companies like Raytheon (RTX.US), TransDigm (TDG.US), and AeroVironment (AVAV.US) with positive ratings, while giving a negative outlook on Boeing (BA.US) and GE Aerospace (GE.US) [1][3][4][5] Defense Sector - Exane expects U.S. budget decisions in 2026 to drive demand, listing Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), and AeroVironment (AVAV.US) as preferred picks [1] Company Ratings - **AeroVironment (AVAV.US)**: Outperform, positioned at the core of U.S. defense priorities with expected double-digit growth in its AxS segment [1] - **TransDigm (TDG.US)**: Outperform, with anticipated profit margin improvements in 2026 and 2027, and a projected special dividend of $100 next year [2][3] - **Raytheon (RTX.US)**: Outperform, expecting improved output from Collins Aerospace and growth in Pratt & Whitney [4] - **GE Aerospace (GE.US)**: Underperform, with concerns over declining aftermarket revenue and increasing losses in the GE9X project [5] - **L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US)**: Neutral, with limited room for valuation expansion despite benefits from missile defense projects [6] - **Boeing (BA.US)**: Underperform, with overly optimistic expectations on aircraft production and cash flow [7] - **Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)**: Outperform, driven by missile projects and international demand [8] - **Kratos Defense (KTOS.US)**: Neutral, with high valuation concerns despite broad defense technology coverage [9] - **General Dynamics (GD.US)**: Outperform, with expected improvements in various sectors including Gulfstream jets and shipbuilding [10] - **Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)**: Outperform, with anticipated growth in multiple projects as they transition to procurement phases [11] - **Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US)**: Outperform, with strong performance in pricing and market share [12] - **Heico (HEI.US)**: Neutral, with cautious outlook due to high valuation and potential slowdown in acquisitions [13]

Core Insights - Strong market demand is evident, with a reported 35% organic growth last quarter and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 [1] Group 1: Demand Indicators - The company emphasizes the importance of various metrics such as sales growth and book-to-bill ratio to gauge market performance [1] - A critical parameter for the company is the strength of its pipeline, which reflects future opportunities [1] Group 2: Pipeline Definition - The company defines its pipeline strictly as active commercial opportunities, indicating a rigorous approach to assessing potential growth [1]