美军"福特"号航母离开希腊海军基地驶往中东 2月26日在瑞士日内瓦阿曼驻日内瓦外交代表机构附近拍摄的警车。新华社发 伊朗与美国的第三轮间接谈判2月26日在瑞士日内瓦举行，现场安保措施严密。美军最大航母"杰拉尔德 ·R·福特"号当天上午离开位于希腊南部克里特岛苏达湾的海军基地，前往中东。 本轮谈判重点是核问题 此次谈判由阿曼斡旋，在阿曼驻日内瓦外交代表机构举行。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领伊朗代表团参加 谈判，美方谈判代表是美国总统特使威特科夫和美国总统特朗普的女婿库什纳。 据美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站25日报道，威特科夫称，美方正要求伊朗同意，核协议若达成，将"无限期 有效"。据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社26日报道，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬在新一轮伊美谈判开始之际表示，伊朗 无意发展核武器。他在一场会议上说："敌人说伊朗不应寻求核武器，而我们自己早已多次说过，我们 无意发展核武器。" 据伊朗媒体26日报道，阿曼外交大臣巴德尔当天早些时候在日内瓦会见了国际原子能机构总干事格罗 西，双方就伊朗核计划相关的技术问题交换意见。据卡塔尔半岛电视台报道，格罗西已加入谈判，并担 2月26日，记者在瑞士日内瓦阿曼驻日内瓦外交代表机构附近等待。新华 ...

《周期与财富》 （美）彼得·奥本海默 著 王德伦 王欢 译 中国人民大学出版社 2025年6月出版 ◎张译井 在与人类相关的诸多系统中，无论是社会形态、流行时尚，还是经济与金融市场，周期与趋势的存在及 其解释，都已有了悠久的历史。其中，金融市场的长期结构性变化，因其创造和吞噬财富的巨大力量， 成为专业学者和从业人员不断求索的课题。尽管不同时代的经济、政治和政策环境往往大相径庭，但是 金融市场周期却随时间推移反复重现。 金融周期的发展和变化不仅关乎金融史的演进，也与普罗大众的财富机遇息息相关。是什么因素驱动了 金融周期的形成？如何判断拐点？如何分析技术进步给传统周期带来的变化？作为拥有近40年宏观研究 经验的资深分析师，彼得·奥本海默在《周期与财富》这本书中，以宏观的历史视野，系统梳理了二战 以来的多轮金融周期，从GDP增长、利率、通货膨胀等多个维度，深入分析了周期背后的驱动因素及其 对资本市场的深远影响。 轮回之魅：金融市场的超级周期 作者指出，金融市场周期的形成和变化，既与经济发展的主要趋势密不可分，也与历史、文化、政治等 因素紧密相关。社会公平性、国际协作水平、地缘政治格局、人口变迁和科技创新等，共同对金 ...

Group 1: Japanese Market Dynamics - The upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Takahichi and President Trump on March 19 is expected to be a significant catalyst for the Japanese equities market [1] - Japanese stocks have shown strong performance, with the TOPIX up 15% and the NIKKEI up 16% year-to-date in dollar terms, while the S&P 500 is flat and NASDAQ is down 2% [6] - Japanese retail investors net sold approximately 400 billion yen worth of equity recently, raising questions about their return to the market [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - There is an expectation of increased foreign participation in the Japanese market, particularly from US dollar-denominated investors, as Japan has outperformed the US on a dollar-adjusted basis [6][7] - Historically, periods of increased foreign flows into the Japanese market have led to multiple expansions at the index level, driving market growth [7] - The duration of foreign investors' participation in Japan may depend on market volatility, with a more stable market potentially encouraging longer-term investments [12][13] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities - Japan's industrial sectors, such as shipbuilding, factory automation, and defense, are expected to benefit from increased cooperation with the US, particularly in the context of re-industrialization [2][15] - The Japanese market is considered less exposed to AI-related disruptions compared to the US, making it a safer investment option for certain sectors [14][15] - The focus on industrials and critical resources aligns with Japan's strengths, suggesting potential for growth in these areas [15]

Core Viewpoint - A new large-scale military conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran is imminent, with significant military preparations underway and negotiations at a standstill [2][30]. Group 1: Military Preparations - The U.S. and Israel are reportedly planning a coordinated attack on Iran, targeting its ballistic missile program, the Revolutionary Guard, and potentially its leadership [3][30]. - Israel has raised its military readiness, anticipating retaliation from Iran even if Israeli forces do not directly participate in the attack [4][30]. - The U.S. is mobilizing military assets, including bombers and refueling aircraft, to the Middle East, with Trump indicating a willingness to use the Diego Garcia military base for strikes against Iran [6][30]. Group 2: Negotiation Stalemate - The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are characterized by an unbridgeable gap, with the U.S. demanding Iran abandon its nuclear program entirely, including civilian aspects [11][36]. - The U.S. aims to weaken Iran significantly, potentially leading to a situation similar to Venezuela, which Iran is unlikely to accept [11][36]. Group 3: Iranian Response - Iran is preparing for potential conflict by deploying military forces in the Strait of Hormuz and enhancing its defensive capabilities, including fortifying nuclear facilities [12][38]. - The Iranian leadership has expressed readiness for martyrdom, indicating a high level of commitment to resist U.S. aggression [39][14]. Group 4: Implications of Conflict - The likelihood of conflict is high, with the potential for a prolonged military engagement rather than a quick resolution [16][22]. - The Iranian regime is in a precarious position, facing existential threats from U.S. demands and the possibility of military action [21][46]. - The situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with the potential for regional escalation involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis [39][22].

研究报告显示，高盛将日本股票的配置从"中性"上调至"超配"。此举反映了高盛日本投资组合策略团队 的观点，该团队将东证指数的12个月目标从3900点上调至4300点，理由是他们认为，日本首相高市早苗 最近赢得选举应会推动更多外国资金净流入和指数层面的估值扩张。高盛策略师在上半年看好与国防、 关键资源、造船、电力资源、美国再工业化题材以及公司治理改革相关的日本股票。 研究报告显示，高盛将日本股票的配置从"中性"上调至"超配"。此举反映了高盛日本投资组合策略团队 的观点，该团队将东证指数的12个月目标从3900点上调至4300点，理由是他们认为，日本首相高市早苗 最近赢得选举应会推动更多外国资金净流入和指数层面的估值扩张。高盛策略师在上半年看好与国防、 关键资源、造船、电力资源、美国再工业化题材以及公司治理改革相关的日本股票。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU leaders convened to address the urgent need to enhance competitiveness amid economic downturns and geopolitical risks, focusing on energy costs and internal market operations [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Competitiveness - The meeting's primary agenda was to find ways to lower energy costs and improve the functioning of the EU's internal market to help European businesses remain competitive against the US and China [1][3]. - European industrial electricity prices are reported to be more than double those in the US and China, highlighting the urgent need for a unified energy market [3][4]. - The EU is considering the "European priority" policy to support local industries in strategic sectors like clean technology, chemicals, steel, automotive, and defense [4][5]. Group 2: Divergence Among Member States - There are significant disagreements among EU member states regarding the implementation of the "European priority" policy, with countries like France advocating for it while others, including Germany and Ireland, express concerns about maintaining free trade principles [5][6]. - The meeting is expected to reveal whether member states can overcome their individual interests to reach a collective action plan [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - EU leaders discussed the need to reduce excessive regulations that complicate business operations, such as differing weight limits for trucks across borders [8][9]. - The current global economic order is perceived as fragile, with calls for a shift from a confederation to a federation to enhance decision-making and unity among member states [8][9]. Group 4: Historical Context and Meeting Significance - The choice of a castle for the meeting symbolizes a retreat from public scrutiny, allowing leaders to engage in serious discussions about Europe's future [10][12]. - Historical precedents show that such secluded meetings have been used to address critical issues, indicating the importance of the current discussions for the EU's stability and competitiveness [12][13].

根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据显示，2024年全球的武器支出突破了2.7万亿美元的天文数字。该机构还估算，全球前100大国防公司的收入达到了 6790亿美元，创下了自2002年开始追踪这一数据以来的最高水平。苏里斯指出，欧洲、亚洲、中东及美洲等地区的国防开支都在强势上升，这种增长是广泛 而且普遍的，她补充道。作为泰雷兹集团负责国际发展的高级副总裁，苏里斯深知这一趋势所带来的机遇，泰雷兹也因此开始在生产规模上做出大幅扩张。 以雷达技术为例，为了满足日益增长的空中监视需求，泰雷兹已经将其雷达的产量提升了四倍。 与此同时，在新加坡航展上，无人机的讨论热度空前，尤其是针对无人机群的管理及反制技术。苏里斯透露，泰雷兹正在研发管理无人机群以及应对无人机 攻击的反无人机系统。这一技术的需求急剧增加也推动了泰雷兹股价在过去12个月内上涨了超过50%。这一现象不仅是泰雷兹的成功，也是全球国防股集体 繁荣的一个缩影，投资者纷纷押注地缘政治冲突和乌克兰等地区的战事将促进新武器和防御系统的需求激增。 此外，随着各国对美国及其安全联盟的可靠性产生疑虑，越来越多的国家开始寻求从其他地区采购武器。德国莱茵金属、韩国韩华航空航天、日本三 ...

【环球时报驻法国特派记者 于超凡 环球时报记者 倪浩】欧盟日益陷入工业经济落后于中美的焦虑，频 频出台贸易保护主义色彩浓厚的政策，以期重振本土工业。据法国《世界报》报道，法国总统马克龙10 日接受多家欧洲媒体采访时表示，欧洲竞争力正面临中美"双重压力"，呼吁欧盟加大对生态转型、人工 智能与量子技术等关键领域的投入，避免未来数年被中美甩开。此番表态正值12日欧盟各国元首与政府 首脑在比利时阿尔登比森城堡举行非正式会议前夕。 马克龙强调，欧洲需要"保护"，需在清洁技术、化工、钢铁、汽车和国防等关键行业推行"欧洲优先"， 守护欧盟战略自主，否则欧洲企业将被中美竞争"横扫出局"。据英国《金融时报》报道，马克龙计划在 12日的欧盟领导人非正式会议上，敦促各方利用"格陵兰岛时刻"——即欧洲人意识到自身受威胁的契 机，加快推进拖延已久的经济改革，降低对中美两国的依赖。 据西班牙《国家报》10日报道，自2024年下半年本届欧盟委员会履职以来，恢复欧洲经济竞争力始终是 核心议题，在此次非正式会议上，该议题将成为最主要甚至几乎唯一的议程。 近年来，欧盟出台的一系列经贸政策带有明显保护主义倾向，不断加大对华限制，严重影响中欧正常经 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese stock market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.14% while the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.41 trillion RMB, indicating a relatively quiet trading day [1] Core Insights - AI applications and media stocks led the market gains, driven by investor anticipation for updates from domestic AI model developers [1] - The healthcare sector also saw gains, with a shift in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) field from beta-driven to visibility-driven growth, suggesting a focus on high-certainty compound growth targets for 2026 [1] - The Chinese healthcare sector is expected to perform strongly in 2025, primarily due to the global expansion of emerging assets [1] - Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and CRO/CDMO sectors are leading the market, contrasting with negative returns in other sectors [1] Additional Important Information - The white liquor sector experienced a decline, leading the market downwards, along with corrections in the real estate and agriculture sectors [2] - Cash transaction volumes are continuously shrinking, indicating a cautious market sentiment [3] - Current fund flow preferences lean towards selling, with a configuration ratio of 1.06 times, while buying is focused on gold, lithium, and GPU sectors, and selling is occurring in memory and defense sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government has set a 2.0% economic growth target for 2023 as part of its "2026 Economic Growth Strategy," focusing on strategic industries like semiconductors, defense, and biotechnology [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Strategy - The strategy aims to lay the foundation for a rebound in potential growth rates by supporting key industries and introducing tax incentives for personal comprehensive asset management accounts (ISA) [1] - A national sovereign fund will be established with an initial capital of approximately 20 trillion KRW to promote investment and innovation [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers and Concerns - The growth drivers identified include expanded exports, improved consumption, and a recovery in construction investment [1] - Experts express concerns over the economy's heavy reliance on the semiconductor cycle, warning that a slowdown in AI investment could prematurely end the semiconductor supercycle, leaving growth unsupported [1] Group 3: Structural Challenges - There are challenges in translating favorable export conditions into domestic demand, and the recovery in construction investment may face uncertainties in a high exchange rate environment [1] - Some scholars warn that the current national strategic industries are predominantly led by large enterprises, indicating a lack of effective "inclusive growth" methodologies [1]