本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：卜淑情，原文标题：《大摩重磅机器人年鉴（一）：AI走向实体化，机器人迎来寒武纪大爆发，中国领先优 势明显》 人工智能正在发生一场根本性转向——从数字世界走向物理世界，据大摩全球最新机器人模型显示，这一转变将催生一个规模高达25万亿美元 的全球机器人硬件市场。随着AI技术从处理"比特与字节"的知识经济扩展至操控"原子与光子"的物理经济，一场机器人领域的"寒武纪大爆 发"正在到来。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利全球具身AI团队在最新发布的《机器人年鉴》中预测，基准情形下，全球机器人硬件销售额将从2025年的约 1000亿美元激增至2030年的5000亿美元，2040年达到9万亿美元，并在2050年攀升至25万亿美元。这一预测仅涵盖硬件销售，若加上软件服 务、维护及供应链相关收入，市场规模可能成倍增长。 据大摩测算，2030年全球将售出约9000万台机器人，2040年这一数字将增至6亿台。其中，小型无人机和家用机器人在近期最具市场潜力，而 人形机器人预计在2029~2030年开始规模化部署。 在这一变革中，中国展现出明显的领先优势，尤其体现在制造能力、稀土材料控制以及政策支持等多个维度。 ...

全球首款无人机母舰测试成功，一次释放200多架无人机实施超饱和攻击 全球首款无人机母舰测试成 功，一次释放200多架无人机实施超饱和攻击 特别声明：以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点，不代表新浪网观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问 题请于作品发表后的30日内与新浪网联系。 "九天"无人机测试视频，全球首款无人机母舰，一次释放200多架小型无人机或巡飞弹，超饱和攻击完 全防不住。#烽火问鼎计划##热点观点# ...

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas Exane initiates coverage on 12 U.S. aerospace and defense companies, suggesting selective investment due to pressures in commercial aviation and anticipated growth in defense spending by 2026 [1] Commercial Aviation - The firm prefers parts and subsystem suppliers over large OEMs, favoring companies like Raytheon (RTX.US), TransDigm (TDG.US), and AeroVironment (AVAV.US) with positive ratings, while giving a negative outlook on Boeing (BA.US) and GE Aerospace (GE.US) [1][3][4][5] Defense Sector - Exane expects U.S. budget decisions in 2026 to drive demand, listing Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), and AeroVironment (AVAV.US) as preferred picks [1] Company Ratings - **AeroVironment (AVAV.US)**: Outperform, positioned at the core of U.S. defense priorities with expected double-digit growth in its AxS segment [1] - **TransDigm (TDG.US)**: Outperform, with anticipated profit margin improvements in 2026 and 2027, and a projected special dividend of $100 next year [2][3] - **Raytheon (RTX.US)**: Outperform, expecting improved output from Collins Aerospace and growth in Pratt & Whitney [4] - **GE Aerospace (GE.US)**: Underperform, with concerns over declining aftermarket revenue and increasing losses in the GE9X project [5] - **L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US)**: Neutral, with limited room for valuation expansion despite benefits from missile defense projects [6] - **Boeing (BA.US)**: Underperform, with overly optimistic expectations on aircraft production and cash flow [7] - **Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)**: Outperform, driven by missile projects and international demand [8] - **Kratos Defense (KTOS.US)**: Neutral, with high valuation concerns despite broad defense technology coverage [9] - **General Dynamics (GD.US)**: Outperform, with expected improvements in various sectors including Gulfstream jets and shipbuilding [10] - **Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)**: Outperform, with anticipated growth in multiple projects as they transition to procurement phases [11] - **Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US)**: Outperform, with strong performance in pricing and market share [12] - **Heico (HEI.US)**: Neutral, with cautious outlook due to high valuation and potential slowdown in acquisitions [13]

Core Viewpoint - In the digital economy era, technological innovation is the core driving force for the development of the logistics and e-commerce industries. Easy Post Express Supermarket integrates resources from major e-commerce platforms and courier companies, promoting deep technological cooperation across enterprises to break down technical barriers and enhance service capabilities through collaborative innovation [1][9]. Group 1: System Interoperability - The disconnection between e-commerce platforms and courier companies has long restricted logistics efficiency, leading to issues such as delayed order reviews and untimely logistics updates. Easy Post promotes "system interoperability" to achieve real-time data flow from order placement to package delivery [2][3]. - Data synchronization time has been reduced from an average of 30 minutes to under 10 seconds, improving order processing efficiency by over 95%. The time taken to trace abnormal orders has decreased from 4 hours to 30 minutes, resulting in a 40% reduction in user complaints [3]. Group 2: Intelligent Technology Development - Easy Post has formed a "cross-enterprise intelligent technology research alliance" to tackle core technologies such as intelligent forecasting, unmanned delivery, and green logistics technology. This collaboration aims to innovate and address industry pain points [4][5]. - The logistics demand forecasting model developed by Easy Post has an accuracy rate exceeding 85%, helping courier companies reduce capacity waste by 15% and improve order fulfillment rates to 98% [5]. - Unmanned delivery vehicles and drones have been developed to address last-mile delivery challenges, with pilot operations in 500 communities across 20 cities, significantly alleviating delivery pressure [5][6]. Group 3: Service Standard Co-construction - The lack of unified service standards in the e-commerce and courier industries leads to inconsistent service quality. Easy Post promotes the establishment of unified service standards and technical specifications to enhance overall service levels [7][8]. - A standardized after-sales processing system has been created, improving user satisfaction with after-sales complaint handling from 75% to 92% [8]. - A technical service assessment standard has been established, linking assessment results to resource allocation, thereby incentivizing companies to improve service quality [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - Easy Post's cross-enterprise technological cooperation model provides a replicable example for the collaborative development of technology in the logistics and e-commerce industries. Future expansions may include the introduction of AI customer service and blockchain traceability technologies [10].

Core Insights - The U.S. military is struggling to keep pace with drone manufacturing capabilities compared to countries like China, despite efforts to accelerate production [1][3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the rapid evolution in drone warfare, revealing that the U.S. is lagging behind in this area [3][4] Group 1: Manufacturing Challenges - The U.S. excels in producing large, expensive weapons like fighter jets and tanks but is unprepared for the rapid mass production of smaller, cheaper drones [3] - A significant challenge for the U.S. is the inability to use Chinese-made components in weapons due to security concerns, while domestic alternatives are significantly more expensive [3] Group 2: Market Position - Chinese companies dominate the consumer drone market, while U.S. manufacturers of first-person view (FPV) drones rely heavily on contracts from the Department of Defense, which currently do not include large-scale procurement [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense's "Replicator" initiative aims to produce 3,000 drones within two years, but this is a small fraction compared to China's production of tens of millions of small drones annually [3] Group 3: Policy and Implementation - The Pentagon announced a major policy shift on July 10 to accelerate the deployment of small drones across the military, aiming to equip thousands of drones to the forces [4] - Despite these initiatives, the U.S. military's implementation of drone policies and the resulting impacts remain uncertain, with a noticeable gap between current drone application and global trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of joint operations among land, sea, and air forces, showcasing advancements in military tactics and technology to enhance combat effectiveness [1][8]. Group 1: Joint Operations - The military is pioneering new strategies and tactics, focusing on complex combat scenarios that require diverse equipment and professional expertise [1][8]. - A recent exercise demonstrated the collaboration between army and navy forces, highlighting the challenges faced during night operations and the importance of situational awareness [3][11]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - New technologies are driving the development of innovative combat methods, such as the integration of small drones with tanks for coordinated operations [9]. - The military is continuously refining new tactics to overcome obstacles in landing operations, indicating a shift towards more sophisticated warfare techniques [9][13]. Group 3: Realistic Training - The article describes a realistic training scenario where soldiers experienced near-combat conditions, enhancing their readiness and morale [11]. - The transition from training to combat readiness was emphasized, with specific missions outlined to achieve tactical objectives during landing operations [13].

Group 1 - The recent military conflict between Cambodia and Thailand has resulted in dozens of deaths and the evacuation of 130,000 people from the war zone [1] - The conflict is similar to previous disputes over the Preah Vihear Temple, characterized by cross-border gunfire [2] - The historical context of the Preah Vihear Temple dates back to the Khmer Empire, with territorial disputes influenced by colonial history and international court rulings [3][4][5] Group 2 - The current conflict is centered around the Mota Antong Temple, located approximately 200 kilometers from Preah Vihear Temple, with initial exchanges of gunfire [13] - Political dynamics in Thailand and Cambodia have influenced the conflict, with leaders attempting to mediate while facing internal pressures [12][14] - The military capabilities of Thailand are significantly stronger than those of Cambodia, particularly in air power, which has played a crucial role in the current conflict [16][19] Group 3 - Cambodia has recently acquired advanced artillery from China, which may enhance its military response compared to previous conflicts [17][23] - The ongoing arms race in Southeast Asia reflects the regional powers' efforts to bolster their military capabilities amid territorial disputes [22] - The conflict illustrates the complex interplay of military strength and political maneuvering in Southeast Asia, where both nations have their own strategic interests [20][21]

Group 1 - The U.S. has paused the delivery of certain weapons to Ukraine, which the White House claims aligns with U.S. interests, while Russia welcomes this decision as a means to expedite the end of the conflict, and Ukraine finds it "painful" [1] - The Trump administration has withheld hundreds of PAC-3 missiles, Stinger missiles, Sparrow missiles, Hellfire missiles, precision-guided rockets, and thousands of 155mm artillery shells, citing concerns that U.S. military weapon stocks could drop to dangerous levels [1] - Analysts suggest that the halt in ammunition supply could render a significant amount of U.S.-made weaponry in Ukraine obsolete, impacting the overall military capability of the Ukrainian forces [1] Group 2 - Since 2021, Russian defense industry production capacity has increased tenfold, capable of supporting battlefield consumption for 500,000 troops, while the U.S. military faces challenges in maintaining its weapon stock due to commitments in Ukraine, Israel, and other regions [2] - Ukrainian officials emphasize their heavy reliance on U.S. weapon supplies, stating that without U.S. ammunition, they would face significant difficulties despite European efforts [2] - Estimates suggest that the Western weapons available to Ukrainian forces may only last until the end of summer 2023, prompting Ukraine to ramp up the production of small drones, with an expected annual output exceeding 4 million units [2] Group 3 - The Ukrainian Defense Minister acknowledged that a recent large-scale airstrike by Russia aimed to deplete Ukraine's air defense capabilities [3] Group 4 - The ongoing conflict has displaced approximately 10.6 million people, representing about a quarter of Ukraine's population, with many others suffering from frequent airstrikes and shortages [4] - A recent poll indicates that 56% of Ukrainians support ending the war through negotiations, reflecting a growing sentiment that military victory may not be achievable [4]

Core Viewpoint - The development of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is set to revolutionize the aviation industry by creating new applications in passenger transport, cargo delivery, and infrastructure inspection, with a projected market size of nearly $80 billion by 2034 due to increasing demand for efficient, green, and rapid transportation solutions [2][3]. Group 1: AAM Market Growth and Applications - AAM is expected to grow significantly, driven by the need for efficient and sustainable transportation solutions in urban and rural areas [2]. - The AAM technology framework includes various types of aircraft, such as small drones and large electric planes, which are innovating the aviation industry through autonomous operation and propulsion system advancements [2][3]. - The current stage of AAM is characterized by a rapid growth phase, particularly in the drone application sector, with hundreds of pilot projects being implemented globally [2][3]. Group 2: Responsible AAM Implementation - The World Economic Forum and Kearney have released a white paper outlining three core elements for the responsible implementation of AAM [4][5]. - The first element focuses on establishing a responsible strategic direction for AAM, emphasizing the importance of safety, sustainability, and economic growth [6][7]. - The second element involves clarifying the primary tasks of stakeholders in the AAM value chain and promoting collaborative efforts among regulators, investors, manufacturers, and operators [18][19]. - The third element reviews key experiences from early drone deployments, which can inform larger AAM applications and highlight the complexities of real-world implementation [28][29]. Group 3: Stakeholder Responsibilities - Each stakeholder in the AAM value chain has specific responsibilities that are interconnected, requiring strategic collaboration to overcome challenges [21][22]. - Regulators are tasked with creating legal frameworks and safety standards, while investors focus on funding early pilots and infrastructure [22][23]. - Infrastructure providers must develop the necessary physical and digital infrastructure, and suppliers are responsible for creating adaptable components [25][27]. - Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) need to ensure compliance with safety standards and adapt their designs to market needs [25][27]. Group 4: Lessons from Drone Deployments - Real-world drone deployment experiences provide valuable insights for the broader AAM industry, particularly in operational feasibility, economic viability, and social acceptance [30][31]. - Successful drone applications, such as the WFP's DEEP program for disaster response, demonstrate the potential of drones in humanitarian efforts and the importance of collaboration among various stakeholders [33][34]. - The Costa Rica Flying Labs initiative showcases how local capacity building and low-cost technology can enhance environmental monitoring efforts [37][38]. - The MFTS program in India illustrates the effectiveness of drones in improving medical logistics in remote areas, emphasizing the need for stakeholder cooperation and regulatory support [42][43]. Group 5: Future Outlook for AAM - The future of AAM will depend on its ability to create social value and integrate seamlessly into existing transportation networks [49][50]. - As AAM technologies evolve, new applications will emerge, enhancing the efficiency of goods and people movement while addressing public safety and environmental monitoring needs [49][50]. - A structured, phased approach is necessary to balance innovation with safety and social acceptance, ensuring that the principles guiding AAM development are effectively implemented [48][50].

Group 1 - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has announced a ban on carrying power banks without 3C certification, unclear 3C markings, or recalled models on domestic flights starting from June 28 [1][2] - Jinan Airport has set up 30 promotional signs and posters to inform travelers about the new regulations regarding power banks [2][5] - Qingdao Airport has also implemented the same ban and provided guidance on identifying the 3C certification on power banks [5][7] Group 2 - In the railway sector, power banks must have clear markings and a single rated energy not exceeding 100Wh to be allowed on trains, with additional restrictions on recalled products [8][9] - Travelers are advised to check the specifications of their power banks, as 100Wh is approximately equivalent to 27027mAh at a common voltage of 3.7V [8] - Other electrical items such as electric scooters and batteries exceeding 100Wh are prohibited from being carried on trains, while certain appliances can be carried but not used on board [9]