近日，在格隆汇举办的"科技赋能·资本破局"分享会上，国联民生研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉围绕全球AI发展趋势、关键技术演进与市场 机会等进行了深度分享。 她指出，尽管市场近期对AI是否存在泡沫、资本开支是否可持续等问题存在疑虑与分歧，但基于对海外科技前沿与中国AI生态的持续观察，其对2026年 及之后的AI发展方向保持乐观。 01、明年AI竞争更卷！ AI到底有没有泡沫，明年机会如何？这是过去两个月市场探讨最多的问题。 美股财报季带来的股价回调，让市场对2025—2027年持续加大的资本开支产生疑虑。 孔蓉指出，基于对海外科技前沿与中国AI生态的持续观察，依然看好26年以及后续的AI方向的机会。 今年来，以谷歌Gemini系列为代表的多模态模型取得突破，市场模型持续迭代为市场注入强劲信心。 其中，谷歌凭借其全栈自研能力、长期技术积累与雄厚的资本资源，在长跑中后劲充足。 Meta虽然在2025年经历组织架构与人员调整，市场信心不足，但在资源整合与顶尖AI人才引入后，期待在2026年推出具有竞争力的模型，成为值得关注 的重点。 微软在维持与OpenAI合作的同时，已开始布局自有模型，关注微软后期发力大模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for AI development beyond 2026, despite current market concerns about potential bubbles and sustainability of capital expenditures [2][6]. Group 1: AI Market Trends - There is ongoing debate in the market regarding whether AI is in a bubble and the sustainability of capital expenditures for 2025-2027 [3][4]. - Major tech companies are expected to shift focus from "infrastructure" to "application realization," with key observations on revenue growth from Google Cloud Platform (GCP), Microsoft Azure, and Amazon AWS [11]. - The release pace of large models is anticipated to accelerate, with major players like OpenAI, xAI, Meta, Microsoft, and Google continuing to launch new models, intensifying industry competition [12][28]. Group 2: Key Players and Innovations - Google has demonstrated strong capabilities with its self-developed technology and resources, maintaining a competitive edge [8]. - Meta is expected to regain market confidence by 2026 after restructuring and integrating top AI talent, aiming to launch competitive models [8]. - Microsoft is focusing on its own models while maintaining collaboration with OpenAI, looking for synergies between its large models and ecosystem [9]. - xAI, despite being a latecomer, is rapidly iterating its models and is considered a significant variable in the market [10]. Group 3: Model Capabilities and Applications - The enhancement of multi-modal capabilities is crucial for transforming content production in advertising and e-commerce, as well as improving user experiences with hardware like AR/VR devices [15][18]. - Breakthroughs in memory and personalization capabilities will allow AI to evolve from general tools to personalized assistants, increasing user engagement and driving token consumption [23][24]. - The overall improvement in model capabilities is fundamental for the commercialization of AI, leading to clearer paths for investment returns [25][26]. Group 4: China's AI Ecosystem - China's AI ecosystem is recognized for its strong competitive advantages, with domestic models gaining international acknowledgment [40]. - Major Chinese tech firms like Alibaba and Tencent are committed to ongoing investments in AI, indicating a long-term strategy [40]. - The country boasts the largest pool of engineers and a rapid product iteration culture, which is expected to replicate the "application innovation" seen in the mobile internet era, creating numerous investment opportunities [40][41]. - Current valuations of Chinese AI companies are considered reasonable compared to their U.S. counterparts, providing a favorable investment margin [41].