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国富期货早间看点:ITS马棕7月前5日出口增31.59%USDA美豆当周优良率为66%符合预期-20250708
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 10:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures and spot markets for agricultural and energy commodities, along with relevant fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It covers aspects such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international and domestic economic indicators, which can help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight行情 - **Futures prices and changes**: The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 09 (BMD) is 4063.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.20% and an overnight decrease of 0.17% [1]. - **Currency exchange rates and changes**: The latest exchange rates and their daily/ten - day changes are shown for multiple currencies against the US dollar, such as the US dollar index at 97.53 with a 0.57% increase [1]. 3.2 Spot行情 - **Futures and spot prices**: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 8680, with a basis of 220 and no change from the previous day [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1产区天气 - **US soybean weather outlook**: The temperature and precipitation in the US soybean - producing states from July 12 - 16 are expected to be close to or higher than normal levels. Some states like Arkansas have higher - than - normal temperature and precipitation [5][6]. 3.3.2 International供需 - **Malaysian palm oil exports**: From July 1 - 5, Malaysian palm oil exports reached 213,055 tons, a 31.59% increase compared to the same period last month [9]. - **Indian palm oil policy**: An Indian minister called for an increase in palm oil import tariffs to 44% and a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton to protect domestic farmers [9]. - **Palm - based SAF**: Up to 500 million tons of palm - based residues and biomass in Southeast Asia can be used for sustainable aviation fuel production [9]. - **US soybean conditions**: As of July 6, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8% [10]. - **US soybean exports**: The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending July 3 was 389,364 tons, meeting expectations [10]. - **Brazilian soybean exports**: In the first week of July, Brazil's soybean exports were 1,917,950.97 tons, a 2% decrease in the average daily export volume compared to July last year [11]. - **Argentine bean粕 exports**: Argentina will export 30,000 tons of bean粕 to China for the first time [11]. - **Indian soybean in EU**: India is making progress in complying with the EUDR for soybean exports, aiming to be a leader in non - GMO soybean exports [12]. - **EU GMO soybean approval**: The EU has approved the use of GMO soybeans in food and animal feed for 10 years [12]. - **Canadian油菜 conditions**: As of June 30, the good - excellent rates of油菜 in Saskatchewan and Alberta were 58.97% and 58.1% respectively [13]. - **Nepalese oil trade**: In the first 11 months of the current fiscal year, Nepal's import of crude soybean oil increased by 613.41%, and there was a significant export of refined soybean oil [13]. - **Freight index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index remained unchanged, with different trends in different ship - type markets [14]. 3.3.3 Domestic供需 - **Oil product sales**: On July 7, the total sales of soybean oil and palm oil were 3350 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day. The sales of bean粕 were 8.45 tons, an increase of 2.11 tons [15]. - **Inventory levels**: As of July 4, the palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.43%, the soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 6.75%, and the rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories decreased [15]. - **Agricultural product prices**: On July 7, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased, and the prices of some agricultural products such as pork and beef also changed [16]. 3.4 Macro要闻 3.4.1 International要闻 - **US economic indicators**: The US June global supply chain pressure index was 0, and the June Conference Board Employment Trend Index was 107.83 [18]. - **OPEC+ production**: OPEC+ is expected to approve a significant increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [18]. - **Eurozone indicators**: The Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 4.5, and the May retail sales month - on - month rate was - 0.7% [18]. 3.4.2 Domestic要闻 - **Exchange rate**: On July 7, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1506, with a 29 - point decrease (yuan appreciation) [19]. - **Central bank operations**: On July 7, the Chinese central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan [19]. - **Foreign exchange reserves**: China's June foreign exchange reserves were 3.317422 trillion US dollars, higher than expected [19]. 3.5资金流向 - **Futures market capital flow**: On July 7, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 27.355 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 4.978 billion yuan in commodity futures and 22.377 billion yuan in stock index futures [22]. 3.6套利跟踪 No information provided in the given content.
美国6月谘商会就业趋势指数 107.83,前值107.49。
news flash· 2025-07-07 14:01
Core Viewpoint - The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index for June increased to 107.83, up from the previous value of 107.49, indicating a positive trend in employment [1] Group 1 - The Employment Trends Index reflects a growing labor market, suggesting potential opportunities for investment in sectors reliant on workforce expansion [1] - The increase in the index by 0.34 points represents a growth of approximately 0.32% from the previous month [1]
美国5月谘商会就业趋势指数 107.49,前值107.57。
news flash· 2025-06-09 14:01
Core Insights - The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index for May is reported at 107.49, a slight decrease from the previous value of 107.57 [1] Group 1 - The Employment Trends Index indicates a marginal decline, suggesting potential fluctuations in employment growth [1]
美国4月谘商会就业趋势指数 107.57,前值109.03。
news flash· 2025-05-05 14:02
Core Insights - The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index for April is reported at 107.57, a decrease from the previous value of 109.03 [1] Group 1 - The Employment Trends Index indicates a decline, suggesting potential weakening in the labor market [1]