Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short on soybean meal, medium - term range - bound trading with a strategy of selling on rallies [1] Core Viewpoints - Although the USDA has repeatedly lowered the global new - crop soybean supply, the oversupply situation of global soybeans, especially soybean meal, has not significantly improved. The low - valued US soybeans have been in a monthly - level range - bound state. The rapid expansion of Brazil's planting area and the declining global soybean meal consumption growth rate are the main causes of the global soybean surplus. In the short term, due to the delayed improvement in the supply - demand pattern, there is still room for the valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal to decline. The market may first trade on the domestic real - supply pressure, US soybean harvest pressure, and US soybean import expectations, leading to a decline in soybean meal futures. When both US soybeans and domestic crushing margins are at low levels, the market will enter a new game. The strategy is to try short - selling soybean meal and reverse - spreading the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal in the short term, and mainly adopt the idea of range - bound trading and selling on rallies in the medium term [1] Summary by Directory 1. Global New - Crop Soybean Yield Estimate Declines Marginally, but Unable to Break out of the Downturn - In September, the USDA estimated that the global soybean output in the 25/26 season would decline by 520,000 tons month - on - month, but the total output would still reach 426 million tons, the highest in history, with a year - on - year increase of 1.67 million tons. The rapid expansion of Brazil's planting area and the declining global soybean meal consumption growth rate are the main causes of the global soybean surplus. In the 22/23 and 23/24 seasons, the failure to achieve excess output due to droughts in Argentina and Brazil led to a phased sharp rise in soybean meal prices. However, in the 24/25 season, the three major producing countries had a good harvest, resulting in an oversupply situation where US soybeans are trading below the planting cost range, and domestic soybean meal is also following a weak trend. China's soybean meal demand has stabilized, and there is no significant excess demand. Other potential demand - growing countries have not shown a large increase in imports. In the 25/26 season, there will be a restorative increase of nearly 7 million tons in sunflower and rapeseed, and the substitution consumption of soybean meal may decline. The natural consumption increase of global soybean meal is only about 3 - 4 million tons, while the average annual increase in global soybeans in the past three years is about 20 million tons, so the oversupply situation will lead to price - for - volume trading [2] - Based on the inventory - to - sales ratio and planting cost, the US soybean futures price is at a relatively low level, which is a resistance to further decline. However, the high global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio always suppresses the price. Compared with soybeans, soybean meal may experience a deeper decline due to weak macro - environment or weak growth in the downstream aquaculture industry. To break out of the downturn, global soybeans need restraint in production and steady growth in demand. Currently, attention is mainly focused on changes in Brazil's planting area and South American weather [3] 2. Short - term Uncertainty of US Soybean Imports and South American Planting Support Current Soybean Meal Valuation - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic port soybean inventory was 9.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased by 1.16 million tons year - on - year and decreased by 20,000 tons compared with the previous period. The feed - enterprise inventory days were 9.22 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.87 days. The high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is in line with the seasonal pattern. Usually, a high inventory should correspond to a relatively low basis and crushing margin, but currently, oil mills can still maintain the break - even point because the crushing margin is supported by the uncertainty of US soybean imports. Brazil's remaining supply can just cover China's soybean purchases before the new South American season, giving Brazil a high bargaining power [5] - In previous years, the market could anticipate the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal by the end of August as early as July, and the crushing margin would be traded at a low level in advance, then recover during the South American planting trading period. This year, due to the expectation of a trade war, the crushing margin has been hovering around the break - even line. In the future, the crushing margin will be affected by the opening of US soybean imports, domestic high - inventory pressure, and South American planting support, increasing the analysis difficulty [6] 3. Soybean Meal Valuation Still Has Room to Decline; If There Are Few Positive Factors, the Market May First Trade on Real - Supply Pressure - For US soybeans, regardless of whether China opens up imports of US soybeans, the US soybean futures price has strong support at the level of 950 - 1000 cents per bushel due to its relatively low valuation. In terms of the basis, during the trade war in September 2018, the US soybean basis fell to around 110 cents per bushel, while the Brazilian basis rose above 350 cents per bushel. After the trade war eased, the US soybean basis rebounded to 150 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian basis fell to 90 cents per bushel. As of now, the soybean negotiation has not made much progress, and the Brazilian near - month basis is at a high level of 293 cents per bushel, resulting in a high premium for near - month contracts. The Brazilian far - month basis is slightly higher than normal. If Sino - US relations ease in the future, it may trigger a reverse - spreading market for soybean meal [10] - The crushing margin mainly follows the domestic real and expected supply. The domestic real - inventory pressure is high, and the expected supply depends on South American planting and whether US soybeans are imported. Currently, there is not much upward momentum for the crushing margin. Therefore, there is still room for the soybean meal valuation to decline. If there are no positive factors from South American planting, the market may first trade on the domestic real - supply pressure, US soybean harvest pressure, and US soybean import expectations. When the crushing margin and the US soybean futures price reach relatively low levels, the market may enter a new range - bound state. The future market will depend on the development of South American planting. If the South American output remains high, the strategy of range - bound trading and selling on rallies should be maintained [10][11]