负极材料技术迭代
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GGII:2026新型硅碳将实现超100%增长
高工锂电· 2026-02-07 11:16
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese anode materials industry is expected to maintain high growth, with projected shipments exceeding 3.7 million tons in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of over 28% [3][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the anode materials industry in China is projected to continue its high growth trend, with total shipments reaching 2.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 39% [4]. - The industry landscape is significantly differentiated, with leading companies experiencing robust production and sales, while small and medium enterprises often engage in contract manufacturing, with some leading firms having over 30% of their production outsourced [4]. Group 2: Shipment Structure - In 2025, artificial graphite will dominate the market, with shipments reaching 2.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 49%, accounting for 92.7% of total anode material shipments [8]. - Natural graphite is expected to continue its decline, with shipments of 210,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%, representing less than 8% of the market share [8]. Group 3: Emerging Trends - Silicon-based composite materials are anticipated to be a growth highlight, with shipments expected to increase by over 65% in 2025, including over 2,000 tons of new silicon-carbon pure powder [10]. - The application of silicon-based composite materials has expanded in the digital sector, while the power sector is still in the verification phase due to material consistency issues [10]. Group 4: Technical Iteration - The technical iteration of anode materials in 2025 will closely align with downstream battery product demands, with differentiated upgrades in energy storage and power sectors [12]. - In the energy storage sector, artificial graphite's performance metrics are expected to improve, with specific capacity advancing from 350 mAh/g to 353-355 mAh/g, and bulk density increasing from 1.6 g/cm³ to 1.65 g/cm³ [12]. Group 5: Future Development Trends - The supply of petroleum coke with low sulfur content is expected to tighten, leading to a price increase for anode materials, with an anticipated price rise of 10-20% [15]. - High-rate products are projected to become mainstream, with over 50% penetration of ≥4C artificial graphite in power lithium batteries [15]. - New silicon-carbon shipments are expected to double year-on-year, with potential for mass application in the power sector [15]. - Leading anode companies are expected to operate at full capacity, necessitating large-scale outsourcing, while smaller firms may seek direct supply relationships with battery manufacturers to enhance customer loyalty [15].