| 碳酸锂日详20251125:仍具回调空间 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | | | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 收盘价 | 近月合约 | | 90200.00 | 90960.00 | 95140.00 | -760.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连一合约 | | 90480.00 | 91020.00 | 95200.00 | -540.00 | | | -380.00 | | | | 91160.00 | 94880.00 | | | | 收盘价 | 连二合约 | | 90780.00 | | | | | | 收盘价 | 连三合约 | | 90780.00 | 91160.00 | 94780.00 | -380.00 | | | 收盘价 | | | 90480.00 | 91020.00 | 95200.00 | -540.00 | | | 成交堂(手) | | 砖酸但期货 | 454612.0 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251120:谨防冲高回落 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-12 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 99060.00 | 93420.00 | 84920.00 | 5,640.00 | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93520.00 | 86500.00 | 5,780.00 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93440.00 | 86580.00 | 5,860.00 | 连二合约 | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93440.00 | 86280.00 | 5,860.00 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93520.00 | 86580.00 | 5,780.00 | | | | 砖酸锂期货 | 成交堂(手) | 1767428 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251118:谨防冲高回落 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-10 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 收盘价 | 近月合约 | 95140.00 | 85720.00 | 84500.00 | 9,420.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连一合约 | 95200.00 | 87220.00 | 87120.00 | 7.980.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连二合约 | 94780.00 | 87060.00 | 87240.00 | 7,720.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连三合约 | 94780.00 | 87060.00 | 86940.00 | 7,720.00 | - | | 收盘价 | | 95200.00 | 87360.00 | 87240.00 | 7,840.00 | 3 | | 成交堂(手) 持仓堂(手) | 砖酸包期货 活跃合约 (元/吨) | 1366919.00 562954.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, highlighting the potential long-term consequences for U.S.-China relations and the U.S. economy, suggesting that the U.S. may struggle to maintain its position as a global competitor against China [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating a strategy of prolonged trade conflict, but China has effectively countered this move with export controls on critical materials [3][5]. - Key materials such as rare earth elements and lithium batteries are essential for U.S. high-tech industries, electric vehicles, and military production, demonstrating the deep dependency of the U.S. on Chinese manufacturing [5][7]. - Despite high tariffs, the U.S. continues to import approximately $1 billion worth of goods from China daily, underscoring the difficulty of decoupling from Chinese manufacturing [5][7]. Group 2: Economic and Political Stability - The U.S. manufacturing sector faces significant challenges in rebuilding due to China's established and efficient supply chain, making it difficult for the U.S. to catch up [9]. - The U.S. government has experienced a shutdown, the longest in seven years, due to political disagreements, affecting federal employees and military personnel, which further complicates the U.S.'s ability to engage in international trade negotiations [10][12]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%, indicating a precarious fiscal situation that hampers its global standing [12][13]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis of U.S. and China - In contrast to the U.S., China maintains political stability, steady economic growth, a complete industrial chain, and ample foreign exchange reserves, positioning itself favorably in the global landscape [15][17]. - The article suggests that as the U.S. declines, the likelihood of a direct confrontation with China decreases, as military actions are driven by cost-benefit analyses, which the current U.S. fiscal situation cannot support [15][17]. - China's strategy focuses on internal development and strengthening its global influence, allowing it to outlast U.S. challenges without direct confrontation [17].

Group 1 - The company has approximately 60 million tons of coal reserves [2] - The company does not produce artificial graphite products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 High-Performance Lithium Battery Annual Conference will be held in Shenzhen, focusing on the latest insights from industry leaders and exploring sustainable development pathways in the lithium battery sector [2][7]. Group 1: Event Details - The conference will take place from November 18 to 20, 2025, at the JW Marriott Hotel in Qianhai, Shenzhen [2]. - The event is organized by GGII and features various sponsors, including HaiMoxing Laser and Dazhu Lithium Battery [2]. Group 2: Company Insights - Sanyan Technology, a leading global supplier of lithium battery anode materials, has maintained its position as the top producer of artificial graphite in Q3 2025 [3]. - The company has developed next-generation materials such as silicon-carbon and hard carbon, with a significant advantage in 6C fast-charging anode technology [3]. - The first phase of Sanyan's 40,000-ton silicon-based anode production base in Ningbo has been put into operation, establishing a comprehensive product system [3]. Group 3: Leadership Perspectives - Li Fengfeng, the chairman of Sanyan Technology, highlighted the complexities faced by domestic enterprises in internationalization, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - She emphasized the necessity for high-level legal teams and policy support to navigate strict environmental regulations and cost control pressures in overseas markets [6]. - The internationalization strategy for anode companies involves not just establishing factories abroad but also restructuring cost competitiveness and supply chain resilience on a global scale [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Shanshan Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in its core businesses of lithium battery anode materials and polarizers [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters reached 14.809 billion yuan, an increase of 11.48% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 284 million yuan, up 1121.72% year-on-year [1] - Net profit excluding non-recurring items was 223 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 512.94% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.91% [1] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 76.29 million yuan, up 1253.04% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.355 billion yuan, a growth of 134.69% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The polarizer business saw a notable increase in the shipment of high-value-added products, contributing to overall revenue growth [1] - The domestic lithium battery anode materials market showed strong performance, with a production increase of 35.8% year-on-year, reaching 2.0596 million tons from January to September 2025 [2] - Shanshan maintained the leading market share in artificial graphite, supported by integrated production capacity and cost control measures [2] Competitive Advantages - Shanshan has established a strong market position in the artificial graphite sector, leveraging years of technical expertise and stable product performance [3] - The company’s products meet stringent requirements for high-end batteries, enhancing its bargaining power with clients [3] - The integration of lithium battery anode materials and polarizers is expected to further strengthen Shanshan's competitive edge in the global new energy and display materials supply chain [3]

Core Insights - Keda Manufacturing reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 12.605 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.19%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.149 billion yuan, up 63.49% [1][2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.417 billion yuan, marking a 43.89% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 404 million yuan, which is a 62.65% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 was 362 million yuan, reflecting a 53.25% year-on-year growth [1] Business Expansion - Keda Manufacturing is advancing its global strategy by establishing a subsidiary in Egypt and adding eight operational sites in India and Egypt to enhance its overseas service network [1] - The company is also focusing on service-oriented and general-purpose ceramic machine strategies, with notable growth in its ink business and the construction of the KAMI ink factory in Turkey [1] Overseas Operations - The company’s ceramic project in Côte d'Ivoire began mass production in July 2025, contributing to its operations in seven African countries with a total of 21 ceramic production lines, 2 glass production lines, and 2 sanitary ware production lines, achieving an annual capacity of over 200 million square meters of ceramic tiles, 400,000 tons of glass, and 2.6 million sanitary ware products [1] Lithium Battery Materials - In the lithium battery materials sector, Keda Manufacturing's artificial graphite product sales reached nearly 70,000 tons in the first three quarters, with both sales and production increasing by over 300% year-on-year, enhancing profitability [2] - The company’s joint venture, Lanke Lithium, produced approximately 31,600 tons of lithium carbonate and sold about 31,500 tons, contributing 271 million yuan to Keda's net profit [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue leveraging its strategic planning, global layout, and technological innovation capabilities to achieve its annual operational goals in the fourth quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent suspension of export controls by both the U.S. and China regarding lithium battery-related products, highlighting the implications for the lithium battery industry and global supply chains [4][6][8]. Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry in 2025 is characterized by a "high-end shortage and mid-to-low-end surplus" situation, with few companies capable of mass production and export of batteries with energy density ≥300Wh/kg [7]. - The U.S. lithium battery industry heavily relies on Chinese products and materials, with China holding a significant share in the global production capacity of key lithium battery materials [7]. Policy Changes - The U.S. has paused the implementation of its 50% penetration rule for one year, while China has also suspended its related export controls for the same duration, allowing for a potential easing of trade tensions [4][6]. - The Chinese export control measures, which were set to take effect on November 8, 2025, included a "technical-level" review for lithium battery exports, specifically targeting high-end technologies and critical equipment [6]. Market Impact - The policy adjustments provide a buffer for cooperation between the U.S. and Chinese lithium battery industries and offer a time window for global supply chain adjustments [8]. - Since 2025, China's lithium-ion battery exports have been on the rise, with Europe and Southeast Asia emerging as significant markets [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the macro - situation has improved, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on 2025 - 10 - 23 were 76,180 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 79,480 yuan/ton, and 77,120 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On 2025 - 10 - 23, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 490,920 lots (+114,471), and the open interest was 419,147 lots (+65,916) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was - 260 tons, with a value of 28,759 tons on 2025 - 10 - 23, showing a decrease compared to previous dates [1]. - **Spreads**: There were differences in spreads such as near - month - consecutive - one, consecutive - one - consecutive - two, and consecutive - two - consecutive - three, with values of - 420 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on 2025 - 10 - 23 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Minerals**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%), and other lithium minerals showed upward trends on 2025 - 10 - 23 compared to previous dates [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also had price changes on 2025 - 10 - 23. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had corresponding price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and the price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]. 3.4 Inventory The registered warehouse receipts were 28,759 tons (- 260 tons), with de - stocking in social inventory, smelters, and downstream, while other inventories remained stable [1]. 3.5 Industry News On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipment ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products at its Mali Buguoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be shipped from Buguoni to San Pedro Port in Cote d'Ivoire and then transported to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship. As of 2024, the estimated mineral resource volume within the mining right scope of the Mali Buguoni lithium mine under the JORC regulations was 31.9 million tons, with an average lithium carbonate grade of 1.00% [1].