Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 18, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The current market trading was weak, the basis changed from discount to premium, the price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of lithium mica remained flat. Both supply and demand were strong, the upstream inventory pressure was not significant, and the resumption of production of spodumene mines was actively progressing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of downstream replenishment. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 502,269 (+158,406), and the open interest was 281,411 (-13,213). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all decreased compared to the previous day. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 570 yuan/ton higher than the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 844 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica remained unchanged. The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also had different degrees of changes [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate powder increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat. In September, the production of lithium manganate powder and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - On September 18, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts were 39,354 tons (+120), the social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters and others decreased, and the downstream inventory was tight [1]. Industry News - Bandera now expects to achieve a post - tax net present value of $1.45 billion (previously estimated at $1.31 billion) due to increased reserves and mine design optimization. Saycona Mining's expansion plan for the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec, Canada, will significantly improve project economics by increasing production and reducing costs. The annual average output of spodumene concentrate will increase from 192,000 tons to 315,000 tons, and the unit cost will decrease [1].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil is strategically transitioning from a traditional oil giant to a player in the renewable energy sector by acquiring the Superior Graphite battery materials plant in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, aiming for commercial production of synthetic graphite by 2029. This move reflects the broader trend of energy giants expanding into the battery materials supply chain to adapt to the changing energy structure [4][5]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Chain - The demand for high-performance battery materials is experiencing explosive growth due to the continuous increase in global electric vehicle (EV) sales and the rapid expansion of the energy storage market. Synthetic graphite, as a core material for lithium-ion battery anodes, significantly impacts battery performance, including charge/discharge speed, cycle life, and energy density. It is expected that synthetic graphite will account for over 30% of total graphite demand in the next five years [4][5]. - The U.S. government has implemented policies to promote the development of the domestic renewable energy supply chain, particularly in critical mineral resources, reducing reliance on foreign supplies. ExxonMobil's acquisition allows for the establishment of a stable domestic supply of synthetic graphite, enhancing its influence in the renewable energy supply chain [5]. Group 2: Technological and Strategic Developments - Synthetic graphite offers advantages such as high electrical conductivity, good cycling stability, and longer lifespan compared to natural graphite. ExxonMobil plans to utilize by-products from its refineries and proprietary materials for synthetic graphite production, which can enable faster charging, longer range, and higher cycle life, making it suitable for high-end electric vehicles and large-scale energy storage systems [5][6]. - ExxonMobil is also advancing in the lithium resource sector with its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology in Arkansas, aiming to improve lithium resource acquisition efficiency and environmental friendliness. The company has signed a non-binding lithium supply agreement with LG Chem to supply up to 100,000 tons of lithium from its Arkansas project [5][6]. Group 3: Investment and Industry Trends - By integrating its graphite and lithium businesses, ExxonMobil aims to cover the upstream core segments of the battery materials supply chain, creating a closed-loop system from raw material extraction to high-performance anode material supply, preparing for the rapid expansion of the EV and energy storage markets. The company plans to invest $30 billion (approximately 213.6 billion RMB) in battery materials and low-carbon technologies from 2025 to 2030 [6]. - The global graphite production sector is facing dual pressures of technological upgrades and capacity expansion. ExxonMobil must navigate challenges such as technological barriers, production costs, raw material stability, and uncertainties in the global supply chain [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Baowu Steel Group reported a revenue of 10.839 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking an 8.07% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 244 million yuan, reflecting a 24.51% growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 10.839 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is an increase of 8.07% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 244 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 24.51% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.0945 yuan [1] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The sales volume of artificial graphite reached a historical high during the reporting period [1] - In the all-solid-state battery materials sector, the company developed the industry's first lithium-carbon composite anode material compatible with all-solid-state batteries [1] - In the semi-solid battery materials field, the oxide electrolyte product developed by the company received technical recognition from new clients in the power and 3C sectors, leading to bulk supply agreements and securing orders in the hundred-ton range [1] - The polymer electrolyte also established strategic cooperation with clients, resulting in orders in the ton range [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the lithium carbonate market remains weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market Data - **Prices**: On August 6, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared to the previous day, with increases of 1,560 yuan/ton, 1,580 yuan/ton, 1,780 yuan/ton, and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) decreased by 2,030 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 425,359 lots, a decrease of 11,848 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 257,770 lots, an increase of 25,708 lots [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 15,023 tons, an increase of 580 tons compared to the previous day. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed that the inventory of smelters decreased by 3,427 tons, downstream inventory increased by 3,073 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons, with a total decrease of 1,444 tons [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one, continuous - one and continuous - two, and continuous - two and continuous - three all changed to some extent. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the CIF China - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide spread decreased by 271.79 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] 3. Other Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, negative electrode materials, and electrolytes all showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, micro - powder type, domestic) decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 50 yuan/ton [1] 4. Industry News - Indonesia is promoting regulations for electric vehicle factories, encouraging a shift from lithium batteries to silver batteries. The global battery demand is expected to reach 8,800 GWh by 2040, and Indonesia aims to seize the opportunity by ensuring raw material supply, improving supply - chain efficiency, and establishing strategic partnerships [1] - On July 31, the first batch of lithium carbonate products from the 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of Qinghai Huixin under China Salt Lake were shipped. The project has been running stably, with the first - batch product purity over 99.6%, meeting the power - battery - grade standard [1] - Xifeng Lithium Industry stated that its Mali Goulaman mine's operation has not been directly affected by the political environment, and production and transportation are normal [1] - According to Chilean customs data, Chile's lithium carbonate exports in July were 20,990 tons, with 13,633 tons exported to China, a year - on - year decrease and a month - on - month increase of 39%. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected to arrive at Chinese ports in August and September [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market remain weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 69,200 yuan/ton (+700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 68,920 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the continuous - two contract was 69,040 yuan/ton (-200), and the closing price of the continuous - three contract was 69,040 yuan/ton (-200) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 247,898 lots (-92,772), and the open interest was 207,770 lots (-8,333) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt was 12,603 tons (+5,998), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was 280 yuan/ton (+700), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between them was 2,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Cost and Supply - **Cost**: The price of spodumene concentrate increased to 760 US dollars/ton (+5), while the price of mica remained flat [1]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week [1]. Downstream Demand - **Last Week**: The production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while the production of ternary materials increased. The production of power batteries decreased [1]. - **August**: The production of lithium carbonate decreased, while the production of lithium hydroxide increased. The production of energy - storage batteries increased [1]. Terminal Demand - **New Energy Vehicles**: In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow year - on - year but declined month - on - month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [1]. - **3C Products**: The shipment volume was average [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of China's anode material industry, highlighting significant growth in production and evolving product structures, while also addressing market dynamics and pricing trends [5][11]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The anode material industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with a projected shipment volume exceeding 260 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 25% [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the shipment volume of anode materials reached 1.29 million tons, marking a 37% increase year-on-year, although this growth rate is lower than that of other major materials due to high inventory levels from the previous year [5][11]. Group 2: Product Structure Analysis - In the first half of 2025, artificial graphite shipments accounted for 91% of total anode material shipments, with a volume of 1.17 million tons, reflecting a 47% year-on-year increase [6]. - Natural graphite shipments, however, saw a decline of 23% year-on-year, totaling 106,000 tons, primarily due to competition from artificial graphite [6]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of anode-grade coke increased by over 40% compared to the previous quarter, but began to decline in the second quarter, with minimal impact on overall anode prices [9]. - The price of natural graphite has slightly decreased due to pressure from artificial graphite [9]. Group 4: Technological Developments - New generation large-capacity products are driving improvements in the capacity of artificial graphite, with several battery companies achieving a capacity increase from 350 mAh/g to 353-355 mAh/g [11]. - The industry is also seeing advancements in fast-charging capabilities, with penetration rates exceeding 15% for fast-charging products [11]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The anode material industry is currently facing structural overcapacity, with the top five companies operating at over 70% capacity utilization, while smaller firms struggle with order shortages [11]. - It is anticipated that the head companies will rely on small and medium enterprises for processing and their own expansion to meet future capacity needs, with an overall gradual increase in industry capacity utilization expected [11].

Core Viewpoint - Xiangfenghua (300890.SZ) reported its first half-year loss since its listing, with a revenue of 688 million yuan, a 2.8% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of -2.95 million yuan, a 107.7% year-on-year decrease, indicating significant challenges in the anode materials industry due to rising raw material costs and oversupply [3][4][5]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xiangfenghua's gross margin fell to 12.35%, down 6.23 percentage points from the previous year, while operating costs increased by 4.17 percentage points [5]. - The company experienced a significant drop in its net profit, with a non-recurring net profit of -14.80 million yuan, primarily due to non-operating income of 11.85 million yuan, including government subsidies [6][7]. - Xiangfenghua's market share is in the middle of the industry, with a production capacity utilization rate of 83.43% in 2024, and it shipped 68,900 tons that year [4]. Industry Context - The anode materials industry is facing oversupply and intense competition, leading to a divergence in performance among companies, with leading firms maintaining profitability while smaller firms struggle [4][10]. - The average gross margin for major listed companies in the industry was 22.26% in 2024, highlighting the pressure on margins due to rising costs and competitive pricing [5]. - The industry has seen a significant increase in production capacity, with output rising from 450,000 tons in 2020 to 1.89 million tons in 2024, resulting in a 320% increase [9]. Market Dynamics - The price of petroleum coke, a key raw material, surged over 70% in early 2025, impacting the cost structure of anode manufacturers [7]. - Despite a slight recovery in raw material prices in the second quarter, the overall profitability of the anode industry remains under pressure due to oversupply and price wars [8][9]. - High-end products are more profitable, with companies like Zhongke Electric maintaining profitability through premium offerings, while lower-end products struggle to generate profit [10].

Core Viewpoint - The stability of costs for anode materials in power batteries is under dual pressure from raw material prices, particularly for low-sulfur petroleum coke and coconut shell carbon, which have seen significant price increases due to supply shortages and rising demand [2][3][4]. Group 1: Raw Material Price Trends - The price of low-sulfur petroleum coke, a key raw material for artificial graphite, has increased significantly since July, with a monthly average price rise exceeding 240 RMB per ton [2]. - Major oil refineries in Northeast China have announced further price increases for petroleum coke starting August 1, with increases ranging from 50 to 150 RMB per ton [2]. - Coconut shell carbon, essential for sodium-ion battery hard carbon anodes and new silicon-carbon anodes, has also seen a sharp price rise due to supply issues, with imported prices exceeding 8000 RMB per ton as of July 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Downstream Production - The rising raw material prices have directly impacted downstream production costs, leading to increased cash flow pressure for some small and medium-sized graphite electrode manufacturers [3]. - Leading graphite electrode companies have raised prices for ultra-high power products by 3% to 5% in response to increased costs [3]. - The price surge occurs at a critical time for silicon-carbon anodes, which are expected to enter mass production, potentially affecting their cost control and industrialization process [4]. Group 3: Market Structure and Trends - Despite the challenges, artificial graphite maintains a dominant position in the market, with a total shipment of 1.29 million tons of anode materials in the first half of 2025, a 37% year-on-year increase [5]. - Artificial graphite shipments reached 1.17 million tons, a 47% increase, capturing 91% of the market share, while natural graphite shipments declined by 23% [5]. - The market is still exploring new anode materials, as evidenced by the increasing market share of alternative materials, despite the volatility in raw material prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3] 2. Report's Core View - The sentiment of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets fluctuates greatly, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market is large. The market is easily influenced by news. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy double - straddle options [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a medium - low level. The trading volume was 744,160 lots (-261,235), and the open interest was 300,620 lots (-77,852). The prices of most contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -1,420 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan compared with the previous day [3] - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) was 780 yuan, an increase of 1,530 yuan compared with the previous day. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc., all showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [3] - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in June, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 tons (unchanged), the social inventory was destocked, the smelters destocked, and the downstream and other inventories changed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The shipment volume of negative electrode materials in China is expected to reach 1.29 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 37%, although this growth rate is lower than that of other major materials due to inventory accumulation in anticipation of price increases in early 2024 [1] Shipment and Forecast - The shipment volume of negative electrode materials in China is projected to exceed 2.6 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 25% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the shipment volume of artificial graphite is expected to be 1.17 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 47%, accounting for 91% of the total shipment volume of negative electrode materials [2] - The shipment volume of natural graphite is anticipated to be 106,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23% [2] Price Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of negative electrode petroleum coke increased by over 40% month-on-month, while prices began to decline in the second quarter, with minimal impact on negative electrode prices [5] - The price of natural graphite has slightly decreased due to competition from artificial graphite [5] Product Development - New generation high-capacity energy storage products are driving improvements in the capacity of artificial graphite, with battery companies testing products moving from 350 mAh/g to 353-355 mAh/g [5] - The compact density of products is evolving from 1.6 g/cm³ to 1.65 g/cm³, and the penetration rate of fast-charging products (4C) has surpassed 15% [5] - New silicon-carbon materials have been shipped in small quantities, with approximately 100 tons shipped in June, over 80% of which is applied in high-end digital fields [5] Capacity and Utilization - The negative electrode industry is experiencing structural overcapacity, similar to the lithium iron phosphate and battery industries, with the top five companies achieving over 70% capacity utilization [5] - Some small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling with order shortages, often becoming processing plants or ceasing operations [5] - The head negative electrode companies are expected to rely on small and medium-sized enterprises for processing and their own expansion, primarily in overseas or western bases, leading to a gradual increase in overall industry capacity utilization [5] Industry Outlook - The negative electrode materials industry is gradually emerging from a downturn, with expectations for a new upward cycle to begin in the second half of 2025 or the first half of 2026 [5]