兴业银行 20260210 摘要 兴业银行过去五年在规模、客户和结构优化方面取得显著进展，尤其在 制造业、绿色和科技领域领先股份制银行，不良贷款率降至 1.08%，拨 备覆盖率升至 228%，为未来发展奠定基础。 兴业银行 2026 年战略聚焦产业金融，打造科技金融、绿色金融、财富 银行和投资银行四张名片，全年计划新增企业贷款约 3,000 亿，零售贷 款力争实现正增长，对公业务重点关注绿色与科技领域。 兴业银行 2025 年存款增速达 7%，总量增加近 4,000 亿，零售存款贡 献大。通过收单代发等交易结算场景建设，提升低成本结算性存款比例 至 40%，降低整体负债成本，预计 2026 年定期存款到期承接保持稳定。 面对 2026 年 5,400 多亿高成本定期存款到期，兴业银行计划通过续做 和推出零钱加、存款加、固收加、跨境加等多元化财富产品吸引资金， 实现资金在体系内沉淀。 兴业银行预计 2026 年息差降幅收窄，一季度或先下行后企稳，年底有 望回升。新发存款利率与存量利差约 150BP，通过做实场景和客户基础 建设，有望进一步降低负债成本 20BP 左右。 Q&A 兴业银行在 2026 年的资产和信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to high-quality development and strategic transformation, focusing on integrating various financial services and enhancing its competitive advantages in green finance, wealth management, and investment banking [1][3][14]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating income of 110.46 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.29% compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.14 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.21% year-on-year [10][16]. - Total assets reached 10.61 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth of 1.01% from the end of 2024 [10][15]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a "1234" strategic framework, focusing on "light assets, light capital, and high efficiency" to enhance its banking capabilities [6][19]. - It aims to strengthen its position in five new sectors: technology finance, inclusive finance, energy finance, automotive finance, and park finance [2][6]. - The company is committed to building a "value bank" by improving five core capabilities: strategic execution, customer service, investment trading, comprehensive risk control, and management promotion [14][19]. Risk Management - The company has implemented reforms in its risk management system to enhance its ability to identify and mitigate risks [17]. - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.08%, indicating stability in asset quality [11][17]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 228.54%, ensuring a robust buffer against potential loan losses [11][18]. Market Position - The company ranked 14th globally in the "Banker" magazine's 2025 list of the top 1000 banks by Tier 1 capital [4]. - It maintains a leading position in green finance, with green loan balances reaching 1.08 trillion RMB, a growth of 15.61% from the previous year [18]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, with corporate clients increasing by 4.26% and retail clients by 1.63% compared to the previous year [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have continued to decline, with Q1 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.58% in revenue and 2.22% in net profit, reflecting a drop of 4.2 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 2025 is reported at 1.80%, a slight decrease of 2 basis points from 2024, indicating pricing pressure on mortgages [3] - The company has shown steady asset growth, with total assets increasing by 3.6% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, and a significant rise in deposits by 10.3%, which supports credit issuance [2][3] - Non-interest income has improved, with net fee and commission income growing by 8.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 13.2% in 2024 [3] - The asset quality remains relatively stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% as of Q1 2025, and the provision coverage ratio is at 233.42%, which is still among the top levels for joint-stock banks [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to have a net profit of 769 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.42% compared to 2024, with expected growth rates of 2.60% and 3.33% in the following years [5][6] - The company's total revenue is forecasted to be 2,128 billion yuan in 2025, with a minimal growth rate of 0.27% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.64 [6]