证券代码：000166 证券简称：申万宏源 申万宏源集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-0901 | | □特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □新闻发布会 | ☑业绩说明会 □路演活动 | | 类别 | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | | 参与单位名称及 | 参加申万宏源 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的分析师和投资者 | | | 人员姓名 | | | | 时 间 | 2025 年 9 月 1 日 15:00-17:00 | | | 地 点 | 网络平台 | | | | 黄昊，申万宏源集团股份有限公司副董事长、总经理、执委 会副主任 | | | 上市公司接待人 | | | | 员姓名 | 杨小雯，申万宏源集团股份有限公司独立非执行董事 | | | | 任全胜，申万宏源集团股份有限公司执委会成员、财务总监 | | | | 徐亮，申万宏源集团股份有限公司董事会秘书 | | | | 本次投资者关系活动主要内容请见附件。 | | | 投资者关系活动 | 接待过程中，公司接待人员与投资者进行了充分交流与沟通， | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to high-quality development and strategic transformation, focusing on integrating various financial services and enhancing its competitive advantages in green finance, wealth management, and investment banking [1][3][14]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating income of 110.46 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.29% compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.14 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.21% year-on-year [10][16]. - Total assets reached 10.61 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth of 1.01% from the end of 2024 [10][15]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a "1234" strategic framework, focusing on "light assets, light capital, and high efficiency" to enhance its banking capabilities [6][19]. - It aims to strengthen its position in five new sectors: technology finance, inclusive finance, energy finance, automotive finance, and park finance [2][6]. - The company is committed to building a "value bank" by improving five core capabilities: strategic execution, customer service, investment trading, comprehensive risk control, and management promotion [14][19]. Risk Management - The company has implemented reforms in its risk management system to enhance its ability to identify and mitigate risks [17]. - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.08%, indicating stability in asset quality [11][17]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 228.54%, ensuring a robust buffer against potential loan losses [11][18]. Market Position - The company ranked 14th globally in the "Banker" magazine's 2025 list of the top 1000 banks by Tier 1 capital [4]. - It maintains a leading position in green finance, with green loan balances reaching 1.08 trillion RMB, a growth of 15.61% from the previous year [18]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, with corporate clients increasing by 4.26% and retail clients by 1.63% compared to the previous year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to serve national technological self-reliance and enhance social wealth preservation and appreciation, aspiring to become a leading investment bank in China [1]. Company Overview and Key Financial Indicators - The registered capital of the company is CNY 8,696,526,806.00, with a net capital of CNY 82,847,070,831.52 as of the end of the reporting period [3]. - The company holds various business qualifications, including membership in the China Securities Association and qualifications from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating income of CNY 10,520,128,421.20, a 9.64% increase from CNY 9,595,157,988.18 in the same period of the previous year [4]. - The total profit amounted to CNY 5,683,909,022.15, reflecting a 14.40% increase compared to CNY 4,968,279,822.43 in the previous year [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5,185,896,191.47, up 9.23% from CNY 4,747,695,567.68 [4]. Market Context - The capital market has shown resilience against external shocks, with significant increases in trading volumes and financing scales. The average daily trading volume of stock funds in the A-share market reached CNY 16,431.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65.73% [5]. - The issuance scale of credit bonds reached CNY 10.32 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.23% [5]. - The Hong Kong IPO fundraising total reached USD 137.43 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 633.81% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing inheritance dispute within the Zong family, particularly focusing on the legal battle involving the heirs of China's former richest man, Zong Qinghou, and the implications for HSBC, the bank involved in managing the family's wealth [4][6]. Group 1: HSBC's Position and Strategy - HSBC is a major player in Hong Kong's banking sector, being one of the three major note-issuing banks and has a long history dating back 160 years [6][8]. - The bank's stock has seen a significant increase, rising from below 60 HKD in August 2024 to nearly 100 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 1.7 trillion HKD [6][8]. - HSBC's recent strategy has focused on cost reduction and concentrating resources in the most profitable regions, leading to a series of asset sales in various countries while expanding operations in India [7][8]. Group 2: Profitability and Business Segmentation - In 2024, HSBC's Hong Kong subsidiary generated a pre-tax profit of 20.47 billion USD, accounting for 63.4% of the bank's total pre-tax profit of 32.31 billion USD [8][9]. - The bank's wealth management segment has shown higher profitability compared to its investment banking division, with a profit margin of 44.4% versus 40.8% for investment banking [10]. - HSBC has restructured its business segments to give more autonomy to its most profitable regions, particularly Hong Kong and the UK, allowing for comprehensive service offerings to high-net-worth clients [13][14]. Group 3: Client Strategy and Market Position - HSBC's client strategy focuses on high-net-worth individuals, offering premium services that require significant asset thresholds, effectively filtering out lower-value clients [15][16]. - The bank's long-standing reputation and established creditworthiness attract wealthy clients, particularly those who have experienced market volatility [18]. - HSBC's ownership structure is highly diversified, with major shareholders including BlackRock and Ping An Asset Management, indicating a professional management approach rather than family control [19][20]. Group 4: Leadership and Succession Challenges - The current chairman, Mark Tucker, is set to leave HSBC, and the search for a successor has faced challenges, with many potential candidates declining offers [27][28]. - The leadership transition reflects the complexities of managing a large financial institution with a global footprint, particularly in balancing Western and Asian market interests [28].

Core Insights - The financial sector is currently experiencing a surprisingly profitable environment, driven by strong performance in stock and bond trading, as well as increased corporate acquisitions and borrowing [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The six largest U.S. banks reported approximately $39 billion in profits for the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations and showing a more than 20% increase from core earnings year-over-year [3]. - JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, generated about $15 billion in quarterly profit, nearly matching the combined profits of the next three largest banks [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The quarter began with market turmoil due to President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, which initially raised concerns about a potential recession [4]. - However, markets rebounded after Trump delayed the most severe tariffs, leading to increased corporate activity and investment banking transactions [5]. Group 3: Investment Banking Trends - Investment banking revenue at JPMorgan rose by 7%, surpassing analysts' expectations by $450 million, despite earlier warnings of a potential 15% decline [7]. - The increase in investment banking fees indicates that corporations are adapting to uncertainty and proceeding with transactions [8].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.13 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93 and rose from $1.82 in the prior-year quarter [1] - The company's net revenues reached $16.79 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.92 billion [1] Trading Performance - The strong quarterly performance was primarily driven by better-than-expected trading revenues, particularly due to market volatility from tariff-related issues [2] - Equity trading revenues surged 23% year over year to $3.72 billion, while fixed-income trading income increased by 9% to $2.18 billion [4] - The Institutional Securities segment reported net revenues of $7.64 billion, up 9% year over year, reflecting the robust trading performance [5] Market Context - Stock markets experienced significant volatility during the quarter following President Trump's tariff announcements, leading to increased trading volumes as investors adjusted their portfolios [3] - The market stabilized towards the end of the quarter, which helped restore investor confidence [3] Wealth and Investment Management - Wealth Management revenues grew 14% to $7.76 billion, driven by new asset additions and increased fees [7] - Investment Management posted net revenues of $1.55 billion, a 12% increase, with total client assets across both segments reaching $8.2 trillion [8] Investment Banking Performance - Morgan Stanley's investment banking (IB) business faced challenges, with advisory fees declining 14% year over year due to a drop in completed M&A transactions [10] - Total IB fees fell 5% to $1.54 billion, despite a 42% increase in equity underwriting income [10] Comparison with Competitors - In contrast, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan reported strong IB performance, with Goldman’s IB fees rising 26% to $2.2 billion and JPMorgan's total IB fees increasing by 7% to $2.51 billion [11] Other Financial Metrics - Morgan Stanley's net interest income increased by 14% to $2.34 billion, while non-interest expenses rose 10% to $11.97 billion [12]

Group 1 - The core function of investment banks is to assist private enterprises in connecting with global capital markets, primarily through equity and debt financing [3][4] - Investment banking services include initial public offerings (IPOs), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and ongoing compliance support for listed companies [3][4] - Due diligence is crucial for understanding a company's business model and operational logic, which aids in developing reasonable valuation proposals and identifying potential investor groups [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has shifted towards being dominated by Chinese capital, while the U.S. capital markets remain more open and internationalized, attracting a diverse range of investors [5] - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) primarily attracts large, mature companies, while NASDAQ is more focused on technology-driven firms with a younger investor demographic [5] - Companies at different development stages require tailored financing strategies, with equity financing becoming a viable option for sustainable growth [6] Group 3 - Ade Financial, headquartered in Hong Kong, holds multiple licenses that allow it to operate across various markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and the U.S. [7] - The firm provides comprehensive support to clients by connecting them with global capital markets and offering one-stop services for capital financing needs and potential M&A assistance [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have continued to decline, with Q1 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.58% in revenue and 2.22% in net profit, reflecting a drop of 4.2 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 2025 is reported at 1.80%, a slight decrease of 2 basis points from 2024, indicating pricing pressure on mortgages [3] - The company has shown steady asset growth, with total assets increasing by 3.6% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, and a significant rise in deposits by 10.3%, which supports credit issuance [2][3] - Non-interest income has improved, with net fee and commission income growing by 8.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 13.2% in 2024 [3] - The asset quality remains relatively stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% as of Q1 2025, and the provision coverage ratio is at 233.42%, which is still among the top levels for joint-stock banks [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to have a net profit of 769 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.42% compared to 2024, with expected growth rates of 2.60% and 3.33% in the following years [5][6] - The company's total revenue is forecasted to be 2,128 billion yuan in 2025, with a minimal growth rate of 0.27% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.64 [6]