Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its **fiscal policy** impacts on domestic demand, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic recovery period. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance Correlation**: Since 2023, there has been a significant positive correlation between the intensity of China's fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance, a trend not observed before the pandemic [1][4][27]. 2. **Three Key Periods of Fiscal Impact**: - **First Period (2023-2024)**: Initial fiscal stimulus led to a temporary economic recovery, but as fiscal spending slowed, economic momentum weakened [4][5]. - **Second Period (2024)**: Following a strong start to fiscal spending, a decline in fiscal outlays led to a synchronized downturn in economic indicators, with consumption and non-real estate investment both declining [5][6]. - **Third Period (2024-2025)**: A shift to more aggressive fiscal policies stabilized economic indicators, with fiscal spending growth rebounding significantly, leading to a recovery in consumption and non-real estate investment [6][27]. 3. **Post-Pandemic Economic Cycle**: China has entered its first economic cycle since joining the WTO that does not rely on real estate as a growth driver, marking the end of the traditional growth model [2][29]. 4. **Increased Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy**: The impact coefficient of fiscal spending on domestic demand has more than doubled post-2023 compared to pre-2020, indicating a stronger direct effect on consumption [1][17][20]. 5. **Decline of Fiscal Crowding-Out Effect**: The weakening of the fiscal crowding-out effect has enhanced the stimulative role of fiscal spending on domestic demand, especially in a low nominal interest rate environment [2][30]. 6. **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The deep adjustment in the real estate market has diminished the traditional transmission mechanism of monetary policy, although monetary policy remains crucial for creating a conducive environment for fiscal policy [2][31][32]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Methodology for Analysis**: The study utilized a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of fiscal policy on domestic demand, confirming the findings from linear regression analyses [23][24]. 2. **Data Handling Techniques**: The analysis involved seasonal adjustments and standardization of data to ensure comparability across different periods [12][13][14]. 3. **Future Implications**: The findings suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand will depend on the continuity and stability of fiscal expansion, as well as the evolving economic environment post-pandemic [30][32]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving role of fiscal policy in shaping China's economic landscape, particularly in the context of a shifting growth paradigm away from real estate dependency.