Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for three consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid economic fluctuations [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for three months [1] - The stability in LPR suggests a cautious approach by the central bank in response to current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, macroeconomic data showed a downward trend in July, with potential external demand slowdown ahead [1] - There is an expectation for future policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which may create room for a reduction in policy rates and LPR quotes [1]

#报告 法兴总结中国7月经济与金融数据表现，认为中国内需仍然脆弱，亟待政策支持。None (@None):None ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production remains stable, with daily average pig iron output and steel plate production increasing week-on-week[1] - The operating rate of oil asphalt and some chemical products has improved, while cement clinker capacity utilization has slightly adjusted[1] - Polyester weaving and automotive tire production rates have rebounded, indicating a recovery in downstream industries[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - Year-to-date, new home sales have dropped by 14.2%, a 5.0 percentage point improvement from the previous month[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices fell by 0.42% week-on-week as of August 4[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 206.74 million yuan per day, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.2%[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 17.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] - South Korea's export value decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decline of 10.2 percentage points from July[1] - The Chinese export container freight index fell by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a downward adjustment in shipping rates[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index rose by 0.4%, while the black raw material index remained stable[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.8%, and spot prices fell by 0.3%[1] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 0.2%, but spot prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.6%[1]

Group 1: Economic Performance and External Demand - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with net exports contributing an increase of 1.0 percentage points to economic growth [1] - In Q2, GDP growth slowed to 5.2%, with external demand and consumption contributions decreasing by 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, while investment contribution increased by 0.8 percentage points [1] - The negative impact of US tariff policies is expected to intensify in the second half of the year, necessitating the effective release of domestic demand potential to stabilize growth [1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics with the US - In the first half of the year, China's exports to the US fell by 10.7%, while imports decreased by 9.2%, leading to an 11.5% drop in trade surplus [2] - The US saw a 21.2% decline in exports to China and a 15.6% decrease in imports from China, with a 12.5% reduction in trade deficit [2] - Despite a reduction in tariffs announced in mid-May, bilateral trade has not fundamentally improved [2] Group 3: Monthly Trade Trends - In May, China's exports to the US dropped by 34.5%, and imports fell by 18.1%, with a 41.5% decrease in trade surplus [3] - By June, the decline in exports to the US moderated to 16.1%, while imports decreased by 15.5% [3] - The US experienced a 42.1% drop in exports to China in May, with a 41.4% decline in imports, but the decline narrowed in June [3] Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - Over half of the Chinese goods exported to the US have been significantly affected by the current tariff situation, with 53.5% of product categories experiencing lower export growth than the average [4] - In Q2, 24.5% of products exported to the US saw declines of over 40%, but this only accounted for 2.4% of total export value [5] Group 5: Future Trade Projections - The WTO predicts a 0.9% increase in global goods trade for the year, but warns that recent tariff changes will negatively impact global trade prospects [7] - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast but emphasizes that rising tariffs could weaken economic growth and increase uncertainty [6] Group 6: Domestic Economic Strategies - The Chinese government is focusing on releasing domestic demand potential as a key strategy to counter external disruptions [10] - Recent policies aim to stimulate consumption through financial support for personal loans and service sector businesses, enhancing market vitality [14]

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]

Consumption - The contribution of trade-in programs to retail sales has weakened, with July retail sales growth declining by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy is expected to boost retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a historical context showing a 1% subsidy could lead to a greater impact than previous years[4] - The consumer loan consumption rate has remained low, averaging around 2.5% since 2024, indicating a shift towards cash purchases rather than credit expansion[3] Production - Industrial production growth in July was 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.38%[5] - Service sector production also saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with mixed performance across various industries[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment has further declined, with July showing a year-on-year drop of 12.0%, and new housing sales showing signs of weakness[6] - Manufacturing investment has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical products[6] - Infrastructure investment turned negative for the first time since 2021, with broad infrastructure showing a decline of 1.9% year-on-year in July[6] Economic Outlook - The data from July indicates a further weakening of domestic demand, suggesting increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, which may prompt policy adjustments[7] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that while external demand uncertainty is decreasing due to the reduction of U.S. tariff policy disruptions, the impact of a potential slowdown in global trade activities after the "export grabbing" trend subsides still needs to be observed [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - From January to June, the broad fiscal expenditure, including general public budgets and government funds, increased by 8.9% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to a decline of 2.8% in the same period last year, contributing positively to economic growth in the first half of the year [1] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in early August may significantly raise the U.S. weighted average import tariff level, introducing uncertainty to external demand trends [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - Continuous effective fiscal policy is crucial for stabilizing domestic demand and confidence [1] - The need for timely reinforcement of domestic fiscal measures after initial efforts, as well as the effectiveness of new policy financial tools in boosting investment, are areas of concern [1]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Economic Performance - In July, industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6%[7] Investment Trends - In July, fixed asset investment experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, driven by manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments dropping by 0.3%, 5.1%, and 17.0% respectively[8] - The construction installation engineering growth rate fell to -6.0% in July, indicating a downturn in the construction sector[8] Consumption Insights - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors declining[8] - Restaurant revenue growth remained low, with a slight increase to 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak consumer spending in the service sector[8] Export Dependency - The report emphasizes that export performance remains a critical anchor for growth, as domestic demand alone may not suffice to fill production gaps if exports weaken[8] - July saw a decline in export delivery value growth, dropping below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a weakening support for production from exports[8] Risk Factors - External economic volatility and uncertainty in policy responses pose risks to future growth, particularly if export trends continue to decline[8][9]