Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising operational costs of China's economy and emphasizes the need for cost reduction and efficiency improvement to sustain economic growth, particularly in the context of increasing fiscal expenditures and debt levels [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Costs - China's economic growth began later than many countries, leading to a short window for demographic dividends, resulting in rapidly increasing operational costs [2]. - Economic costs can be simplified to the costs of production factors: labor, land, and capital. The diminishing demographic dividend has led to a significant rise in labor costs, while real estate booms have increased land costs [2][6]. - The macro leverage ratio in China has surpassed that of developed economies, indicating that debt costs may become the largest operational cost for the economy [2][12]. Group 2: Structural Constraints on Economic Development - China's economic development faces constraints such as reliance on investment-driven growth, leading to overcapacity in certain industries and insufficient effective demand [2][19]. - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth is low, and increasing this share in the short term is challenging [2][20]. - The aging population is increasing the fiscal burden for pensions, further complicating economic growth [2][28]. Group 3: Recommendations for Cost Reduction - It is urgent to reduce costs and improve efficiency, with a call for the central government to play a larger role in macroeconomic management [3][4]. - The issuance of special bonds should be expanded to alleviate local government debt pressure and redirect fiscal spending towards improving people's livelihoods and stimulating consumption [4][40]. - Investment efficiency should be prioritized, focusing on sectors that yield the highest multiplier effects for economic growth [4][47]. Group 4: Debt and Fiscal Policy - The rapid increase in debt costs since 2009 has become a major operational cost for the economy, with the macro leverage ratio indicating significant debt levels across households, enterprises, and government [9][12]. - The need for a structural adjustment in debt management is highlighted, with a focus on reducing the high leverage of non-financial enterprises [37][39]. - The central government should increase its bond issuance to optimize the debt structure and reduce local government debt burdens [40][44]. Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The article suggests that the structural issues in the economy, such as low consumer income share and high reliance on exports, will continue to constrain growth [20][22]. - The aging population will lead to increased fiscal demands, particularly for social insurance, which will further elevate operational costs [28][34]. - The need for fiscal reform is emphasized to clarify the responsibilities and financial powers between central and local governments, which is crucial for improving economic structure and efficiency [46][47].

人们通常比较多地关注经济总量和增长速度，对经济维持运行所要承受的成本关注度不高。从客观上讲，企业运营的成本容易 计算，无非是生产和经营所需的各类生产要素的成本。对于国家而言，成本的概念也大致类似。随着经济体量的增加，国家财 政支出规模也随之上升，如我国已经成为全球第二大经济体，每年的赤字规模也有增大趋势，故应该考虑如何让经济运行降本 增效，财政支出的正向乘数效应最大化，以保持经济的良性运行，本文就此话题展开讨论。 摘要 成为全球第二大经济体之后 ——我国经济运行成本上升偏快 我国经济上世纪80年代开始步入高速增长期，从1980年到2010年这30年属于高速增长期，GDP平均增速超过10%， 2010年 GDP总量超过日本，成为全球第二大经济体 。但2011年以后，经济增速开始缓慢下行，就此告别了两位数增长的时代。 中国经济高速增长阶段，主要发生在2011年以前，尤其在上世纪90年代和本世纪00年代，是改革开放红利和人口红利的集 中释放阶段，但2011年开始中国的劳动年龄人口出现负增长，劳动力成本逐年上升，同时，随着房价的上涨，土地价格也 水涨船高，故生产要素价格的上涨必然带来经济运行成本的上升。 我国土地价格 ...