Workflow
财政支出结构分化
icon
Search documents
财政“投资于人”特征初现——7月财政数据点评(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-20 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth while expenditures related to people's livelihoods and the service industry are accelerating [2][3][69]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - In July 2025, the broad fiscal revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.1%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from June [3][9][70]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first seven months was 56.3%, in line with the average level of the past five years, while the expenditure completion rate was 51%, slightly below the average of 51.7% [3][9][70]. Group 2: Changes in Fiscal Support - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth may be partly due to the end of the large-scale support phase from government debt financing [3][14][70]. - By July 2025, the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap reached -5.6 trillion yuan, with only a 0.4 trillion yuan increase from June, indicating a potential reduction in government debt support [3][14][70]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 1,880 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment updates supported by ultra-long-term special bonds had been fully allocated, suggesting a decrease in government debt funding for fiscal expenditures [3][14][70]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Expenditure Trends - Despite the overall decline in broad fiscal expenditure growth, expenditures related to people's livelihoods and the service industry have significantly accelerated [4][20][71]. - In July 2025, the growth rates for health and social employment expenditures were 14.2% and 13.1%, respectively, both showing substantial increases from June [4][20][71]. - Expenditures in cultural tourism, media, and education also saw growth rates of 7% and 4.6%, respectively, with increases of 3.8 and 2.2 percentage points from June [4][20][71]. Group 4: Revenue Composition and Trends - The broad fiscal revenue continued to show improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in July 2025, driven by a 2.6% increase in general fiscal revenue and an 8.9% increase in government fund revenue [5][27][72]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget in July was 8.5%, higher than 7.8% in 2024 but slightly below the five-year average of 8.9% [5][27][72]. - The decline in land transfer income has contributed to the slowdown in government fund revenue growth, which was 8.9% year-on-year in July, down 11.9 percentage points from June [33][38][72].