Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the proactive fiscal policies implemented in China, with significant increases in fiscal spending aimed at supporting economic recovery and enhancing social welfare [1][5][6] - In the first ten months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue was approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure reached around 30.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.2% [1][2] - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 8.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21%, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining fiscal support for the economy [1][3] Group 2 - The national general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was approximately 22.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, particularly in social security and employment, education, and health care, which all saw growth rates exceeding the average of 2% [2][3] - Notably, social security and employment expenditure surged by 9.3%, reflecting the government's focus on enhancing the welfare of families [2] - Infrastructure spending within the national general public budget has declined, with agricultural, forestry, and water expenditures down by 11.7%, and urban and rural community expenditures down by 7.3% [3][4] Group 3 - To maintain fiscal spending levels, new incremental policies have been introduced, including the allowance for local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [5][6] - These special bonds are expected to be rapidly issued starting in November, with over 10 billion yuan already issued in the first 19 days of November [6] - The new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and urban infrastructure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22,582.5 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][8][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][8][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure is partly due to the high base effect from the same period in 2024, where expenditure had increased significantly [3][13][80]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was at a historically low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has also contributed to the decline in expenditure growth [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - As new incremental funds are deployed, the support from fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures for the economy is expected to accelerate towards the end of the year [5][82]. - Two types of incremental funds have been established to address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The focus of these funds includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly supporting economically significant provinces [4][24][82]. Group 4: Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue in October 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with government fund revenue dropping significantly by 18.4% [6][28][83]. - General fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a substantial decline of 33% [40][83]. - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in October was 9.3%, higher than 9% in 2024 and the five-year average of 8.8% [6][28][83].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure dropped to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points from September[1] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal expenditure budget in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure was attributed to a high base effect from 2024, a drop in revenue, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to September[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[12] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other projects, limited the available financing for October[12] Future Outlook - With the introduction of 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[18] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[14]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, growing by 2% [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure was partly due to the high base effect from the same month in 2024, where expenditure had surged by 20.4% year-on-year [3][13]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was significantly lower, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has been largely completed by mid-August, limiting the available resources for October [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been introduced: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and another 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The implementation of these funds is expected to enhance the support for the economy towards the end of the year, potentially leading to a recovery in broad fiscal expenditure growth [5][82]. - The focus of the new policy financial instruments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly aimed at supporting major economic provinces [4][24][82].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - General fiscal expenditure from January to October decreased year-on-year to 5.2%, with a significant drop in October to -18.8%[3] - Total public budget revenue reached 18.6 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8% year-on-year, while expenditure was 22.6 trillion yuan, up by 2.0%[7] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in October showed a positive year-on-year growth for the seventh consecutive month, at 8.6%, while non-tax revenue plummeted by -32.8% due to high base effects[10] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax contributed positively, with growth rates of 7.2%, 4.4%, 7.3%, and 27.3% respectively[10] Expenditure Analysis - Infrastructure spending saw a notable reduction, with declines in traditional sectors like energy conservation and transportation ranging from 10% to 30%[10] - Social security and technology expenditures turned negative in October, with year-on-year changes of -0.1% and -0.9% respectively[10] Land Sales and Debt Issuance - Revenue from land sales continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of -27.5% in October, reflecting a broader trend in land transaction values[10] - Approximately 4.5 trillion yuan of general and ordinary government bonds were issued from January to October, with an expected 0.6 trillion yuan yet to be spent[10] Budget Execution and Risks - General fiscal revenue is on par with the initial budget at 0.2%, but expenditure is lagging behind the budget target of 9.3%[10] - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in the real estate sector and potential discrepancies between budget execution and final accounts[9]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [2] - The government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30,717 billion yuan, while the expenditure increased by 23.9% year-on-year to 74,924 billion yuan [2] - The structure of public finance revenue continues to improve, with tax revenue growth accelerating, while non-tax revenue has turned from growth to decline [3] - The growth rate of public finance expenditure remains stable, with a focus on social welfare and a slight decrease in infrastructure spending [4] - The government fund income decline has eased, and the expenditure growth rate is expected to remain high due to a 500 billion yuan allocation to local governments [5] Fund Research - The equity market indices experienced a decline, with the smallest drop being 0.24% for the Shanghai 50 and the largest being 6.16% for the Sci-Tech 50 [7] - The average decline for equity funds was 4.13%, with only 5.23% showing positive returns, while pure bond funds had a positive return rate of 99% [8] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 608.84 billion yuan, with stock ETFs leading the inflow at 247.40 billion yuan [8] Industry Research - The light manufacturing industry and textile and apparel sectors both saw declines, with the light manufacturing sector down 2.22% and the textile sector outperforming by 1.91 percentage points [12] - The domestic pet food brands performed well during the "Double Eleven" pre-sale, with significant revenue growth reported by Zhongchong Co., which saw a 21.05% increase in revenue and an 18.21% increase in net profit [12][14] - The packaging paper prices have been rising, which is expected to support the performance of related stocks in the future [12] - The light manufacturing and textile sectors have underperformed the market, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery in stocks with high dividend expectations [13]

Fiscal Data Overview - In September, total public fiscal revenue reached 15,678.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to August[5] - Tax revenue for September was 11,579.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from August[5] - Non-tax revenue fell to 4,099.0 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 7.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - For the first three quarters of 2025, government fund budget revenue totaled 30,717.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points[17] - In September, government fund expenditure was 12,322.0 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year[20] - Central government fund expenditure in September was 481.0 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year, while local government fund expenditure fell by 0.3% to 11,841.0 billion yuan[20] Central Fiscal Contributions - The central fiscal budget is a significant contributor to overall fiscal expenditure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% in September, contributing 2.0 percentage points to the overall fiscal expenditure[22] - The central government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support effective investment, increasing the total scale by 100 billion yuan compared to last year[22] Economic Risks - Risks include heightened overseas recession concerns and increased geopolitical uncertainties, which may impact fiscal policies and economic growth[22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in broad fiscal spending and the need for monitoring the progress of new fiscal funds [1][8]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][8]. - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, recovering by 2.9 percentage points compared to August, while broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down 3.8 percentage points from August [2][9]. Group 2: Budget Completion and Trends - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%, and for broad fiscal expenditure, it was 67.1%, also below the five-year average of 68.5% [2][9]. - The decline in broad fiscal spending is attributed to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a total issuance of 10.3 trillion yuan in net financing and new bonds by September 28, 2025, achieving an issuance progress of 87% [2][14]. Group 3: Incremental Fiscal Funds and Future Outlook - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been established, including a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [3][19]. - The upcoming meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee in late October may involve discussions on new government debt limits, which could impact the allocation of fiscal resources [3][23]. Group 4: Revenue Improvement and Spending Trends - Broad fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September 2025, while government fund revenue rose by 5.6% [4][28]. - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, contributing to a further drop in broad fiscal expenditure growth, which was 2.3% year-on-year in September, down from August [4][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in broad fiscal spending and the need for monitoring the progress of new fiscal funds [1][8]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][8]. - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, recovering by 2.9 percentage points compared to August, while broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down 3.8 percentage points from August [2][9]. Group 2: Budget Completion and Trends - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%, and for broad fiscal expenditure, it was 67.1%, also below the five-year average of 68.5% [2][9]. - The slowdown in broad fiscal spending is attributed to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a total issuance of 10.3 trillion yuan in net financing and new bonds by September 28, 2025, achieving an issuance progress of 87% [2][14]. Group 3: Incremental Fiscal Funds and Future Outlook - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been established, including a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan and a local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan [3][19]. - The upcoming meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee in late October may involve the review of new government debt limits, which could impact the fiscal capacity for the fourth quarter and the following year [3][23]. Group 4: Revenue Improvement and Spending Trends - Broad fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September 2025, while government fund revenue rose by 5.6% [4][28]. - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, contributing to a further drop in broad fiscal expenditure growth, which was 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025 [4][51].