文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 广义财政收入延续改善、支出增速下滑，前7月预算完成度明显高于2024年同期。 2025年7月，广义财政 收入同比3.6%，较6月同比提升0.8个百分点；广义财政支出同比12.1%，较6月同比下降5.5个百分点。从 预算完成度看，前7月广义财政收入预算完成56.3%，持平过去五年平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成 51%，略低于过去五年平均51.7%。 广义财政支出降速，或部分缘于政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。 2025年7月，广义财政收支差达-5.6 万亿元，规模较6月仅新增0.4万亿元，或指向政府债务资金支持放缓。8月中旬，国家发改委披露2025年 超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已下达完毕。政府债务资金对广义财政支出的支 持力度或开始减弱。 广义财政支出增速虽有回落，但一般财政中民生及服务业相关支出明显提速。 一般支出分项中，民生及 服务业相关支出提速明显，如卫生健康，社保就业支出增速分别为14.2%、13.1%，较6月提升8.6、4.9个 百分点；文旅传媒及教育支出增速分别为7%、4.6%，较6月提升3.8、2.2个百分点；社保就 ...

更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计约 15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支出超出 收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 财政部数据显示，今年以来地方政府性基金中的国有土地使用权出让收入降幅不断缩窄，今年前7个月 土地出让收入约1.7万亿元，同比下降4.6%。 尽管广义财政收入逐步回暖，但也仅为去年同期水平，为了保持支出扩张力度，中央和地方政府加快发 债筹资，投向重大项目、防范风险等领域。 根据中国人民银行数据，今年前7个月，政府债券净融资8.9万亿元，同比增4.88万亿元。 在财政收入和债务收入支撑下，今年广义财政支出保持一定力度。从资金使用来看，民生领域支出不断 加力，得到充分保障。比如，社保就业、教育、卫生健康等支出增速均高于总体支出增速。 随着近期养老金提标、3岁以下育儿补贴和幼儿园大班免保教费等系列政策落地，民生支出持续加力， 这也体现了财政资金更多"投资于人"。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 事件： 8月19日，财政部公布2025年前7月财政收支情况。1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同 比增长0.1%；全国一般公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增长3.4%。 点评：债务资金支持开始减弱，财政支出增速回落，而民生、服务业相关支出提速 政策变化超预期，经济变化超预期 报告正文 广义财政收入延续改善、支出增速下滑，前7月预算完成度明显高于2024年同期。 2025年7月，广义财政 收入同比3.6%，较6月同比提升0.8个百分点；广义财政支出同比12.1%，较6月同比下降5.5个百分点。从 预算完成度看，前7月广义财政收入预算完成56.3%，持平过去五年平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成 51%，略低于过去五年平均51.7%。 广义财政支出降速，或部分缘于政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。 2025年7月，广义财政收支差达-5.6 万亿元，规模较6月仅新增0.4万亿元，或指向政府债务资金支持放缓。8月中旬，国家发改委披露2025年 超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已下达完毕。政府债务资金对广义财政支出的支 持力度或开始减 ...

宏观经济分析报告 公共财政收支增速差收窄 -- 2025年1-7月财政数据点评 | | | 王哲语 SAC NO: S1150524070001 2025年8月20日 证券分析师 王哲语 022-23839051 wangzheyu@bhzq.com 周喜 022-28451972 SAC NO: S1150511010017 zhouxi@bhzq.com 2025年8月19日,财政部公布 2025年 1-7月财政收支情况: (1) 1-7月,全国一般公共预算收入 135839 亿元,同比增长 0.1%;全国一 般公共预算支出 160737 亿元,同比增长 3.4%。 (2)1-7月,全国政府性基金预算收入 23124亿元,同比下降 0.7%;全国政 府性基金预算支出 54287 亿元,同比增长 31.7%。 点评如下: ● 公共财政收入:个税收入增速持续较高 2025年 1-7月,公共财政收入同比由降转涨,其中,税收收入同比降幅收窄, 非税收入同比涨幅收窄,公共财政收入结构改善。税收收入中,增值税同比涨 幅较 1-6月略有扩大,单月增速有所下降,整体仍呈平稳趋势。企业所得税收 入同比降幅收窄,可能源于"反 ...

Fiscal Performance - General fiscal expenditure cumulative year-on-year growth reached 9.3%, aligning with the annual budget level[3] - General fiscal revenue for January to July was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 16.1 trillion yuan, up 3.4%[6] - In July, general fiscal revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 12.4%[9] Revenue and Taxation - Tax revenue has shown positive year-on-year growth for four consecutive months, with July's tax revenue increasing by 4.6%[9] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax grew by 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.4%, and 13.9% respectively[9] - Non-tax revenue saw a decline, with July's non-tax revenue down 12.4% year-on-year[9] Expenditure Trends - Social security, health, and education expenditures increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.2%, and 4.6% respectively[9] - Infrastructure spending has been reduced, with traditional infrastructure sectors showing negative growth[9] - Debt interest payments rose to 8.9% year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on debt management[9] Land Sales and Special Bonds - Land sale revenue continued to show positive growth, increasing by 7% year-on-year, supported by active land market transactions[9] - Special bonds and specific government bonds have significantly bolstered fund expenditures, with fund spending growing by 31.7% year-on-year[9] Government Debt and Future Outlook - The front-loading of government debt has boosted fiscal expenditure, but expectations for economic stability still require fiscal support[9] - Excluding capital injections and debt relief funds, general fiscal expenditure growth would drop from 9.3% to 2.9%[9] - The net financing of government debt is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, impacting local government cash flow and economic indicators[9]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the total revenue growth rate for the fiscal accounts was 0%, improving from -0.6% in the previous period[2] - The total expenditure growth rate was 9.3%, up from 8.9%, marking the highest level since September 2022[2] - Tax revenue showed a recovery with a monthly growth rate of 5%, compared to 1% in the previous month, while non-tax revenue fell to 2% from 3.7%[5] Group 2: Key Revenue Components - Stamp duty revenue increased significantly by 20.7%, with securities transaction stamp duty surging by 62.5%[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a 71% increase year-on-year[15] - Land transfer revenue in July was 267.9 billion yuan, down from 299 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.6%[18] Group 3: Expenditure Insights - The cumulative expenditure growth rate for the first seven months was 3.4%, with a monthly growth rate of 3%[21] - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 31.7% for the second fiscal account, reaching 42.4% in July[22] - The total issuance of special local government bonds was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 63.1%[22] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, policy implementation, and a significant downturn in the real estate market[26] - The sustainability of revenue growth is uncertain, particularly if budgetary income weakens alongside declining land revenue, which may lead to increased national debt issuance in Q4 2023[1]

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was 1,412.71 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Government fund budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year[2] Expenditure Insights - Government fund budget expenditure reached 462.73 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 30%[2] - Public finance expenditure growth slowed to 3.4%, with a notable focus on social welfare and technology sectors[3] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, indicating strong support for public welfare[3] Structural Changes - The expenditure structure emphasized "people's livelihood" and "technology," while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with a negative growth rate of 4.5%[3] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year[4] Performance Metrics - The completion rate of the national general public budget revenue for the first half of 2025 was 52.6%, lower than the average of the past five years (53.9%) [3] - The completion rate of public finance expenditure was 47.6%, also below the five-year average of 48.1%[3] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly impact tax revenue bases[5] - Unexpected policy changes may alter the scale and pace of fiscal expenditures[5]

Revenue Performance - In June, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 18,943 billion, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue showed marginal improvement, growing by 1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.7%[2] - Corporate income tax and consumption tax saw marginal increases, with corporate income tax benefiting from a low base effect[2] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in June was CNY 28,318 billion, growing by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, below the annual target of 4%[3] - Expenditure on science and technology increased by 18%, while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with transportation spending down by 13%[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in June was CNY 3,959 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, marking a significant recovery[4] - Land sales revenue rose by 22% year-on-year, contributing to the improved government fund revenue[4] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[5] Fiscal Deficit Insights - The broad fiscal deficit has widened, but the gap between actual revenue and budgeted revenue has narrowed effectively[6] - The potential fiscal gap for the year is estimated to be no more than CNY 3,000 billion if current revenue growth is maintained[6] - There is a risk of further widening fiscal gaps if revenue growth does not sustain the levels seen in the first half of the year[7]

Core Viewpoint - China's proactive fiscal policy is aimed at promoting stable economic operation, with a significant increase in fiscal spending despite a slight decline in fiscal revenue [1][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, the broad fiscal revenue is projected to be 11.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure is expected to reach 14.5 trillion yuan, an increase of about 6.6% [1]. - The fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.5%, which will be compensated through government borrowing [1][11]. Tax Revenue Analysis - The general public budget revenue for the first five months of the year is 9.7 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue at 7.9 trillion yuan, down 1.6% [3][4]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to multiple factors, including difficulties faced by some enterprises and a sluggish real estate market [4][6]. Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue for the general public budget increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 1.7 trillion yuan, although it showed a decline in May compared to the same period last year [4][6]. Government Bond Issuance - To maintain fiscal spending, the government has accelerated the issuance of government bonds, with 6.29 trillion yuan issued in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 38.5% [7][8]. Fiscal Spending Focus - Fiscal spending in the first five months reached 11.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with significant allocations towards social security, employment, and education [8][10]. - The central government has expedited transfer payments to local governments to support basic livelihood guarantees [8]. Future Fiscal Policy Directions - The government plans to implement additional fiscal policies as needed, particularly in the second half of the year, to meet economic development goals [11][12]. - There is an emphasis on establishing a childcare subsidy system and addressing investment shortfalls through new policy financial tools [12].