Group 1 - The issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments has reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, with several provinces completing their annual issuance tasks ahead of schedule [1][3] - Experts believe that the early issuance of refinancing special bonds highlights a clear direction of proactive fiscal policy, providing more fiscal space for local economic stability [2][6] - As of June 11, the total issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments has reached 19,281.24 billion yuan, with additional plans from Shandong, Yunnan, and Beijing bringing the total to 20,300 billion yuan [3][7] Group 2 - Jiangsu Province leads in issuance with 2,781.42 billion yuan, followed by Shandong, Beijing, Yunnan, and others, all exceeding 1,000 billion yuan [4][5] - The majority of the refinancing special bonds issued this year are long-term, with 73.21% of the 224 bonds having a maturity of at least 10 years [6] - The interest rates for refinancing special bonds are generally low, with 30-year bonds ranging from 1.90% to 2.35% [6] Group 3 - The National People's Congress has approved an increase of 60,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with 20,000 billion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026 [7][8] - The government work report emphasizes the need to balance debt resolution with development quality and fiscal sustainability [8] - The shift in local debt management from risk prevention to a dual focus on risk prevention and development promotion is noted as a significant change in strategy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a narrowing decline in tax and land transfer revenues, alongside proactive government spending, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy in response to economic conditions [2][3]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first four months reached 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, which is a narrowing of 0.7% compared to the previous month [2]. - Tax revenue for the same period totaled 655.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, but April marked the first month of positive growth at 1.9% [5]. - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic VAT at 262.54 billion yuan (up 1.8%), domestic consumption tax at 65.02 billion yuan (up 1.8%), and personal income tax at 53.76 billion yuan (up 7.4%) [5]. - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed to 7.7%, significantly below the three-year average of 11.1% [5]. Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure for January to April was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, exceeding the annual expected growth rate of 4.4% [7]. - Social welfare, education, and health expenditures rose by 6.6%, contributing 2.9% to total fiscal spending [7]. - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 2.3%, but the decline is narrowing, indicating potential future improvements as special government bonds are issued [7][8]. - Government fund expenditure reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, driven by accelerated special bond issuance [8]. Debt and Policy Outlook - The issuance of government bonds, including special bonds, has increased significantly, with a total increase of 3.7 trillion yuan in government debt from January to May [8]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on enhancing consumer spending, social welfare, and support for real estate projects [8][9].