财政节奏
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广发宏观:11月财政收支情况简评
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-18 15:09
Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[3] - Central government revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 4.1%[4] - Cumulative fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of the year grew by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest levels in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022[3] Group 2: Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 8.6% previously, with corporate income tax showing a significant decline of 5.2%[4] - Personal income tax grew by 11.4% year-on-year, while domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 3.3%[5] - The decline in corporate income tax is attributed to an early revenue recognition effect from the previous year's fourth quarter[4] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in November decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with cumulative expenditure progress at 84%, the slowest in five years[6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures, particularly in agriculture and community services, saw significant declines, with cumulative spending down by 13.6% and 8.3% respectively[6] - Technology expenditure, however, increased by 27.4% year-on-year, indicating a shift in spending priorities[6] Group 4: Broader Fiscal Context - The fiscal deficit reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, largely due to reduced infrastructure spending[7] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[7] - The upcoming fiscal policies for 2026 are expected to be crucial, with potential acceleration in spending to stimulate economic activity[8]