Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's broad fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first 11 months of the year, highlighting a slight decline in revenue and an increase in expenditure, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand [3][5]. Fiscal Revenue - In the first 11 months, broad fiscal revenue reached 24,079 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 0.2% [3]. - The national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, slightly better than the initial forecast of 0.1%, driven by stable economic performance and active capital markets [5]. - Government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, falling short of the initial forecast of 0.7%, primarily due to a sluggish real estate market and lower land transfer income [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Broad fiscal expenditure amounted to 34,066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.5%, which is lower than the expected growth rate of 9.3% for the year [6]. - The government allowed local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter to support local financial capacity and major project construction [6][7]. - The fiscal expenditure structure has been optimized, with increased focus on social welfare and public services, such as social security and education, which grew faster than average expenditure growth [9]. Government Debt - Net financing of government bonds reached 1.315 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, an increase of 361 billion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Experts anticipate that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 will be set around 4%, with total government debt expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [9].

上述广义财政收入并不包括中央对地方转移支付、债务等收入，一般来说算上各类收入，最终财政收支能达到平衡。 今年前11个月广义财政收入与去年同期基本持平情形下，广义财政支出保持4.5%增速，与今年经济增速（5%左右）相近。这体 现了今年更加积极财政政策落地，发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的重要作用，财政支出保持一定力度，也能推动今年 经济平稳运行。 今年以来广义财政收入接近于年初官方预期。 根据《关于2024年中央和地方预算执行情况与2025年中央和地方预算草案的报告》（下称《报告》），2025年全年广义财政收 入预计增长约0.2%，而目前前11个月实际下降约0.2%，实际增速与预计增速相近。 具体来看，今年前11个月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，略好于年初预期（0.1%）。这主要得益于今年经济运行平稳， 带动相关税收增长，同时资本市场活跃，也带动个税、证券交易印花税等相关税收较快增长。税收征管不断强化，纳税人合规 纳税意识增强，也是推动收入增长的一个因素。 不过今年政府性基金收入依然低于年初预期，这主要跟楼市持续低迷、地方政府土地出让收入不及预期有关。 今年财政支出结构持续优化，财政资金更加注重投资 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 年末财政有多少余粮？ ——11 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1-11 月广义财政收入、支出累计同比分别回落至-0.2%、4.5%。第一本账收入中，税收当月同 比连续 8 个月为正，非税收入当月同比因高基数大幅回落。第一本账支出当月同比降幅收窄， 科技、卫生健康支出走强，基建类支出仍在压降。卖地收入当月同比仍大幅下行，但基金支出 加快投放力度。广义财政收入、支出累计同比均弱于年初预算，年末财政或留有一定余粮，往 前看，12 月是财政支出大月，无论年末财政余粮是在 12 月形成支出，还是结余至 2026 年形 成支出，预计均将对 2026 年上半年稳增长形成一定支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 年末财政有多少余粮？ 2] ——11 月财政数据点评 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[3] - Central government revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 4.1%[4] - Cumulative fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of the year grew by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest levels in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022[3] Group 2: Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 8.6% previously, with corporate income tax showing a significant decline of 5.2%[4] - Personal income tax grew by 11.4% year-on-year, while domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 3.3%[5] - The decline in corporate income tax is attributed to an early revenue recognition effect from the previous year's fourth quarter[4] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in November decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with cumulative expenditure progress at 84%, the slowest in five years[6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures, particularly in agriculture and community services, saw significant declines, with cumulative spending down by 13.6% and 8.3% respectively[6] - Technology expenditure, however, increased by 27.4% year-on-year, indicating a shift in spending priorities[6] Group 4: Broader Fiscal Context - The fiscal deficit reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, largely due to reduced infrastructure spending[7] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[7] - The upcoming fiscal policies for 2026 are expected to be crucial, with potential acceleration in spending to stimulate economic activity[8]

Macroeconomic Analysis - The narrow revenue growth has slowed down, with national public budget revenue increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year from January to November 2025, and the growth rate in November being flat compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Narrow budget expenditure grew by 1.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a decline of 3.7% in November, indicating a marginal narrowing of the decline compared to October [1] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth remains low, influenced by prior fiscal efforts and year-end budget adjustments, with key areas like health, technology, and environmental protection seeing leading expenditure growth [1] Government Fund Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a significant decline of 15.8% in November [2] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a notable recovery in November, growing by 2.8% compared to a decline of 38.2% in October [2] - The increase in expenditure is attributed to the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to support local investment projects [2] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal balance remains tight, with moderate revenue growth constraining expenditure amid economic growth and real estate market transitions [3] - Expenditure is becoming more targeted and effective, with a clear focus on key areas such as social welfare and technological innovation [3] - The decision-makers plan to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with an expected narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4%, emphasizing structural optimization and enhancing local fiscal sustainability [3] IP Fun Food Industry Analysis - The IP fun food sector, which combines IP with food and collectible gifts, is rapidly growing, driven by consumer demand for emotional consumption [6][7] - The market size of China's IP food industry is projected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2%, while the IP fun food segment is expected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan to 11.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 19.6% [7] - The growth is fueled by the younger generation's increasing emotional consumption needs and the mature supply chain of the snack industry in China [7] Competitive Landscape - The core competitiveness in the IP fun food market lies in supply chain management and IP operation, with low differentiation in snack products making cost control crucial [8] - The market remains fragmented, with leading companies holding only 7.6% market share, indicating a competitive environment with many small players [9] - The differentiation provided by IP toys as gifts is key to achieving premium pricing in a market where snack products lack inherent differentiation [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with fiscal spending maintaining a certain level of intensity, driving a continuous recovery in the economy [2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first ten months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue reached approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure was about 30.7 trillion yuan, up by approximately 5.2% [2] - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 8.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21% [2] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure aligns with the economic growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, supporting stable economic operation [2] Focus on Livelihood Spending - The national general public budget expenditure in the first ten months was approximately 22.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [3] - Key livelihood-related expenditures such as social security and employment (3.8 trillion yuan), education (3.4 trillion yuan), and health (1.7 trillion yuan) all saw growth rates exceeding the average of 2%, with social security and employment expenditure growing by 9.3% [3] - The government has allocated around 100 billion yuan in childcare subsidies for children under three years old, benefiting many families [3] Infrastructure and Project Funding - Expenditures on agriculture, forestry, water, and urban community projects saw declines of 11.7% and 7.3% respectively, while transportation spending remained stable compared to the previous year [5] - Government fund expenditures reached approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [6] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - To maintain fiscal spending, new policies have been introduced, including allowing local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [7] - The issuance of new policy financial tools has been completed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and urban infrastructure [7] - Analysts suggest that to meet the initial budget goals, general public budget expenditure needs to grow by 12.9% year-on-year in November and December, while government fund expenditure must increase by 40.3% [6]

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with fiscal spending maintaining a certain level of intensity, which supports the continuous recovery of the economy [3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first ten months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue was approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure was about 30.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3]. - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by approximately 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [3]. Fiscal Spending Structure - The structure of fiscal spending has shown a clear tilt towards the livelihood sector, aligning with the government's report advocating for more resources to be "invested in people" [4]. - In the first ten months, the general public budget expenditure was approximately 22.6 trillion yuan, with social security and employment spending reaching 3.8 trillion yuan, education spending at 3.4 trillion yuan, and health spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, all showing growth rates above the average of 2% [4]. Infrastructure Spending - Due to increased funding directed towards livelihood, infrastructure spending in the general public budget has seen an overall decline [5]. - Expenditures on agriculture, forestry, and water, as well as urban and rural community spending, decreased by 11.7% and 7.3% respectively [7]. Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure was approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [7]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds has supported the commencement of numerous major projects, stabilizing investment and the economy [7]. Future Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain a certain level of fiscal spending, new policies have been introduced, including allowing local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [9]. - As of mid-November, over 10 billion yuan in new special bonds had been issued, surpassing the total for October [9].

Group 1 - In October, public fiscal revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year. Tax revenue showed strong performance, rising by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 0.02% in the previous eight months [1][4] - The strong growth in tax revenue in October is attributed to several factors, including a notable increase in individual income tax, which rose by 27.3% year-on-year. This may be linked to the active performance of the capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [6][7] - The general public budget revenue for the first ten months of the year showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.8%, slightly above the initial budget target [4][11] Group 2 - Fiscal expenditure in October decreased by 12.9 percentage points to -9.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a front-loaded fiscal schedule. Most expenditure categories recorded negative growth, particularly in infrastructure-related spending [11][12] - The revenue from land transfer in October fell by 27.3% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure in the real estate sector. The cumulative government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was down 2.8% year-on-year, below the initial budget target [17][18] - In the context of declining fixed asset investment, broad fiscal policy has accelerated, with significant financial tools and local debt limits being introduced. However, hard data on construction and investment has not shown significant improvement yet [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rebound in economic indicators for October, driven by the implementation of new policy financial tools, suggesting a recovery in the economy after a challenging period in July and August [1][4][15]. Economic Indicators - The October EPMI (Emerging Purchasing Managers Index) rose sharply by 7.3 points to 59.7, indicating strong seasonal characteristics typical of autumn [4][22]. - The BCI (Business Confidence Index) increased by 0.9 points to 52.0, confirming a positive trend in economic performance from September to October [1][4]. Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales and profit indices showed a slight pullback in October but remained at the second-highest level since May, indicating sustained autumn demand [6][8]. - The sales forecast index for October was 59.7, down from 60.9, while the profit forecast index was 47.4, down from 48.3, reflecting a weaker outlook compared to previous months [6][8]. Investment and Employment Outlook - Investment and employment forward-looking indices reached their highest levels of the year, attributed to the positive impact of policy financial tools on corporate expectations [2][8]. - As of October 17, new policy financial tools had injected 189.35 billion yuan, expected to stimulate a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan [2][8]. Financing Environment - The corporate financing environment index saw a significant increase, indicating improved credit conditions due to policy financial tools being used to supplement project capital [11]. - The October financing environment index was 52.4, surpassing the previous value of 47.6, with only three months in the year exceeding 50 [11]. Price Expectations - Price indices for intermediate and consumer goods showed varying degrees of decline, influenced by commodity price fluctuations [12]. - The consumer price forecast index for October was 44.7, down from 47.9, while the intermediate goods price forecast index was 33.4, down from 38.0, indicating uncertainty in future price trends [12]. Policy Implications - The rebound in EPMI and BCI data suggests that the economy is sensitive to investment, with the primary challenge for macroeconomic policy being the expansion of demand rather than merely lowering interest rates [15]. - If construction projects are prioritized in 2026, there is a high probability of a gradual recovery in nominal growth throughout the year, potentially leading to a second phase of a profit-driven bull market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].