证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260305 细微处见大势，关注 5 个信息——学习政府 工作报告精神 2026 年 03 月 05 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 2 月复盘与 3 月 展望》 2026-03-03 《纳斯达克 100ETF，2 月复盘与 3 月 展望》 2026-03-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：今年政府工作报告在总量政策方面与市场预期较为一致，但 在投资、消费、绿色、财税、民生等细节方面有较多重点细节信息，可 以从细微处见大势布局。一是 8000 亿政策性金融工具，比去年增加 3000 亿，挖掘投资潜力；二是设立 1000 亿财政金融协同促内需专项资金， 从供需两端促消费、扩内需；三是能耗目标改为碳排放目标，单位 GDP 碳排放量目标降幅 3.8%，淘汰落后产能；四 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy-driven financial tools [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in January 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of asset expansion in the banking sector, supported by a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, which is expected to stabilize net interest margins [25][26]. - It identifies two main investment themes: quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals and state-owned banks with defensive value [26]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In January 2026, social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1,654 billion yuan more than the previous year [9][10]. - The report notes that the increment in government bonds was significant, with an increase of 2,831 billion yuan, marking the highest level for January since 2020 [10]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of loans fell to 6.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 4.71 trillion yuan, which is 4,200 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. Deposit Growth and Monetary Aggregates - M1 and M2 growth rates showed a rebound, with M1 increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and M2 by 9.0% [21]. - The report states that new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate and non-bank deposits [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment lines: quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which are rated as stable [25][26].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the personnel adjustments within the China Development Bank (CDB), including the appointment of new leaders and the promotion of young cadres [1][20][21] - The new Chief Business Officer of CDB is Hong Dengjin, who was previously the General Manager of the Development and Planning Department [1][20] - A new round of personnel adjustments has begun, affecting several provincial branch leaders and deputy leaders, with multiple young cadres being promoted [1][20] Group 2 - Yang Jun, the Minister of the Party and Mass Work Department, has reached retirement age and has held various positions within CDB [3][21] - Song Zheng, the current head of the Hunan Provincial Branch, is proposed to become the Minister of the Party and Mass Work Department [5][21] - Li Zhijun, the head of the Gansu Provincial Branch, will take over as the head of the Hunan Provincial Branch, having previously held various leadership roles within CDB [7][23] Group 3 - Cheng Yongxu, the head of the Sichuan Provincial Branch, has reached retirement age and has held multiple leadership positions within CDB [9][25] - Mu Lan, the Deputy General Manager of the Transportation Business Department, is proposed to become the head of the Ningxia Provincial Branch [11][27] - Wang Qiang, the current head of the Ningxia Provincial Branch, is proposed to take over as the head of the Sichuan Provincial Branch [12][28] Group 4 - Liu Jun, the Deputy Head of the Hebei Provincial Branch, is proposed to become the Deputy Head of the Hunan Provincial Branch [14][30] - Niu Xiaoyu, the Director of the Technology Finance Department in the Beijing Branch, is proposed to become the Deputy Head of the Sichuan Provincial Branch, recognized for his contributions to major project financing [16][32] - Ren Xin, the Director of the Customer Department in the Shaanxi Provincial Branch, is proposed to become the Deputy Head of the Xinjiang Provincial Branch, with a strong background in various business areas [18][34] Group 5 - CDB has 37 first-level branches and 4 second-level branches in mainland China, with a presence in major cities and regions [18][34] - In 2024, CDB's average number of employees is projected to be 12,234, an increase of 308 from the previous year, with a total salary of 6.142 billion yuan and an average salary of 502,000 yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.46% [18][34][35] - CDB aims to support national development strategies by leveraging its financial capabilities, with plans to invest 250 billion yuan in new policy financial tools by 2025, supporting over 1,054 projects and driving total investment of 3.85 trillion yuan [19][35]

据了解，进口预付款保险，是指当国内进口商按进口合同约定预付款项后，依据进口合同有权并且 已经要求国外供应商退还该笔预付款时，因政治风险或商业风险原因导致其不能收回相应预付款所遭受 的直接损失，保险将对进口商的预付款损失进行赔偿。 作为江苏省重点进口企业，江苏省对外经贸股份有限公司重点聚焦金属矿产等原材料专业领域进口 业务，同时拥有从上游原材料对接再到中游仓储服务，最终到终端龙头加工工厂的产业链供应链体系， 在行业内具有良好的市场竞争力和影响力。进口预付款保单通过政策性兜底，覆盖跨境采购中的政治风 险（如战争、汇兑限制）和商业风险（如供应商破产、恶意违约）。 近年来，受国际地缘政治波动、贸易壁垒升级及供应商违约风险叠加影响，外贸企业预付款资金安 全与资源交付稳定性面临严峻挑战。在此背景下，政策性金融工具正成为稳外贸、保供应链的重要支 撑。 记者日前从中国信保江苏分公司获悉，2025年4月，中国信保江苏分公司为江苏省对外经贸股份有 限公司成功出具疫情后全省首张进口预付款保单，此次承保不仅填补了市场空白，更助力企业在复杂国 际贸易环境中增强议价能力与采购韧性，标志着政策性金融工具在稳外贸的关键作用中再升级。 中国信 ...

Group 1: Industrial Performance Overview - In December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises was 1.1%, down from 1.6% in November 2025[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits for large-scale industrial enterprises increased to 0.6% in December 2025, up from 0.1% in November 2025[1] - December 2025 saw a significant recovery in monthly profit growth, turning positive at 5.3%, a rebound of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month's -13.1%[2] Group 2: Profit and Revenue Dynamics - Despite the positive profit growth, December's revenue growth was negative at -2.98%, indicating ongoing challenges in revenue generation[2] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 3.8 days year-on-year to 67.9 days, reflecting continued cash flow and operational pressures on enterprises[2] - The overall profit growth for industrial enterprises remains low, influenced by high base effects and weak domestic demand, with operating costs rising by 1.3% compared to a 1.1% increase in revenue[5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The upstream mining sector continues to be the largest drag on overall industry performance, with coal and oil extraction showing significant declines, while non-ferrous metal mining performed well[5] - The profit growth for the raw materials manufacturing sector was 10.3% in December, indicating stabilization in traditional manufacturing due to new policy-driven financial tools[5] - Downstream consumer goods saw a sharp decline in profit growth, recorded at -7.9%, worsening from -6.9% in the previous month, linked to declining retail consumption growth[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industrial profit growth is expected to remain positive in January and February 2026, supported by a low base effect from the previous year and the impact of policy-driven financial tools[5] - Forward-looking indicators, including the January Business Confidence Index (BCI) for investment, sales, and profit, showed significant recovery, suggesting a continuation of the improving trend in enterprise profits[5]

Group 1 - The overall financial situation in multiple provinces shows an increase in household deposits and a decrease in loans, indicating that while residents' financial confidence is growing, their consumption and housing confidence still need improvement [2][12] - As of the end of 2025, the total household deposits in China reached 167 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.71%, translating to an average per capita deposit of approximately 118,900 yuan [3][12] - In Guangdong, the total loan balance was 29.9 trillion yuan, with a deposit balance of 38.7 trillion yuan, maintaining the highest financial volume in the country [3][13] Group 2 - In Zhejiang, the total deposit balance was 24.63 trillion yuan, with household deposits growing nearly 10% year-on-year [4][13] - Jiangsu reported a significant increase in household deposits by 11.48%, the highest among the provinces, with per capita deposits reaching 156,000 yuan [4][14] - The increase in household deposits is attributed to heightened precautionary savings, a shift from riskier assets to safer bank deposits, and proactive debt repayment by residents [5][15][16] Group 3 - The structure of loans has changed, with household loans decreasing while corporate loans have increased significantly [7][17] - In Guangdong, household loans decreased by 47.18 billion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 5.36% year-on-year [7][17] - Corporate loans increased by 1,070 billion yuan, with both short-term and medium-term loans showing substantial growth, supported by new policy financial tools [9][19]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [1][8] - The contribution rates to economic growth from final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services were 52%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively for the year [7][8] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods for 2025 amounted to 501202 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, slightly up from 3.5% in the previous year [3][10][11] - In December, retail sales showed a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.12% [3][10] Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for 2025 was 485186 billion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year, with a notable decline in real estate development investment by 17.2% [5][12] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment saw a slight increase of 0.6% [12] Economic Trends - The economic performance in 2025 exhibited a pattern of high growth in the first half followed by a slowdown in the second half, attributed to reduced fiscal support and a weakening real estate market [9] - The decline in investment was a significant drag on economic performance, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to stabilize investment in 2026 [12][15] Future Outlook - For 2026, there are expectations for a rebound in consumer spending, with potential increases in fiscal support for consumption, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of around 5.0% [16] - Investment in infrastructure is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on high-quality projects and strategic emerging industries, despite challenges from high base effects and external demand fluctuations [16][17]

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]

Group 1: Loan Growth - In December 2025, new short-term loans for enterprises increased by CNY 370 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 390 billion, significantly exceeding seasonal expectations[12] - New medium and long-term loans for enterprises amounted to CNY 330 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 290 billion, showing improvement partly due to a low base in 2024[12] - The overall new social financing in December was CNY 22,075 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 6,462 billion, aligning with seasonal patterns[5] Group 2: Deposit Growth - M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[26] - New RMB deposits in December reached CNY 16,800 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 30,800 billion, indicating a reverse seasonal growth[26] - Non-bank deposits contributed significantly to the deposit increase, with a net decrease of CNY 330 billion in December, which was a year-on-year improvement of CNY 28,400 billion[28] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - It is expected that enterprise credit will improve at the beginning of 2026, driven by policies aimed at stabilizing investment[29] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, uncertainties in investment behavior, and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[32]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the state of social financing and credit in December, highlighting trends in corporate and household loans, as well as deposit movements in the banking sector [1][2][3][4]. Key Points on Social Financing and Credit - In December, corporate loans increased by 580 billion year-on-year, driven by policy financial tools, a low base from the previous year, and year-end lending boosts from banks [1][2]. - However, household loans decreased for the third consecutive month, with a reduction exceeding 400 billion, indicating weak demand and a contraction in leverage [3]. - The overall social financing growth rate was 8.3%, with loan growth at 6.3%, both showing slight month-on-month declines [2]. - Corporate medium to long-term loans saw a significant year-on-year increase of 390 billion, attributed to policy support and the low base effect from December of the previous year [2]. Insights on Household Loans - The decline in household loans includes a net decrease of 1,000 billion in short-term loans and a 2,900 billion decrease in medium to long-term loans [3]. - The expectation is for M1 growth to gradually recover in January 2026, potentially rising from 3.8% to a range of 4-5% due to low base effects and increased market activity [3][8]. Deposit Trends - December saw a rise in deposit growth from 7.7% to 8.8%, with no significant outflow of household deposits [5]. - M1 growth decreased to 3.8%, indicating that while the market is active, there is no significant change in household risk appetite [5]. - Corporate deposits decreased by 600 billion year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.8 trillion, influenced by a self-discipline agreement on demand deposits [7]. Future Market Expectations - The outlook for January and beyond suggests that banks remain active in lending, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, but retail demand may continue to lag [4]. - There is a need to monitor the impact of structural monetary policy tools and interest rate adjustments on credit growth throughout the year [11]. Central Bank Policies - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, aimed at alleviating pressure on bank interest margins [9][10]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to expand, supporting financing for private enterprises, which may help alleviate financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises [10]. - A comprehensive interest rate cut is anticipated between the end of Q1 and Q2, with an expected annual reduction of 10-20 basis points [10]. Additional Observations - Despite approximately 6 trillion in excess savings, the potential for large-scale market entry remains uncertain and will depend on market wealth effects and policy guidance [6]. - The current phase of household funds entering the market is still in its early stages, requiring ongoing observation of market dynamics [6].