财政资源使用效率
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李迅雷专栏 | 我国财政支出力度不足吗?
中泰证券资管· 2026-03-25 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discrepancy between China's budgeted and actual public expenditure, highlighting that actual spending has consistently fallen short of budgeted amounts since 2020, raising concerns about the adequacy of fiscal policy implementation [1][2]. General Public Budget Expenditure - Actual public budget expenditure has been lower than budgeted amounts since 2020, with notable trends observed in the execution of fiscal revenues and expenditures [3][4]. - The execution of fiscal revenues was higher than budgeted in 2020 and 2021, but both revenues and expenditures fell below budget in 2022 and 2023, with a significant gap in 2024 where revenue shortfalls exceeded expenditure shortfalls [4][6]. General Public Budget Revenue - Since 2022, the execution of general public budget revenue has been below budgeted figures, primarily due to lower-than-expected tax revenues, although non-tax revenues have somewhat compensated for this [7][8]. - In 2020, the budgeted general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous year, while actual execution showed a smaller decline of 3.9% [8]. Fiscal Accounting Characteristics - The article emphasizes the complexity of China's fiscal accounting, which includes multiple accounts such as general public budget, government fund budget, state capital budget, and social insurance fund budget [1][11]. - The relationship between fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit is not straightforward, as it involves various adjustments and transfers that affect the overall fiscal balance [11][17]. Broader Fiscal Support - The analysis includes the second account, government funds, which have provided additional fiscal support not counted in the statutory deficit, such as special bonds and local government financing [20][21]. - Various fiscal resources have different pathways for policy effectiveness, with some funds being used to stimulate investment and consumption, thereby enhancing the overall impact of fiscal policy [22]. Comparative Analysis - The article compares China's fiscal support with that of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that China's fiscal support has remained stable and gradually improved since 2023 [23][25]. - The broader fiscal deficit, including various fiscal supports, is estimated to be lower than that of the U.S. during the pandemic, indicating a more measured approach to fiscal policy in China [25][27].