Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discrepancy between China's budgeted and actual public expenditure, highlighting that actual spending has consistently fallen short of budgeted amounts since 2020, raising concerns about the adequacy of fiscal policy implementation [1][2]. General Public Budget Expenditure - Actual public budget expenditure has been lower than budgeted amounts since 2020, with notable trends observed in the execution of fiscal revenues and expenditures [3][4]. - The execution of fiscal revenues was higher than budgeted in 2020 and 2021, but both revenues and expenditures fell below budget in 2022 and 2023, with a significant gap in 2024 where revenue shortfalls exceeded expenditure shortfalls [4][6]. General Public Budget Revenue - Since 2022, the execution of general public budget revenue has been below budgeted figures, primarily due to lower-than-expected tax revenues, although non-tax revenues have somewhat compensated for this [7][8]. - In 2020, the budgeted general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous year, while actual execution showed a smaller decline of 3.9% [8]. Fiscal Accounting Characteristics - The article emphasizes the complexity of China's fiscal accounting, which includes multiple accounts such as general public budget, government fund budget, state capital budget, and social insurance fund budget [1][11]. - The relationship between fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit is not straightforward, as it involves various adjustments and transfers that affect the overall fiscal balance [11][17]. Broader Fiscal Support - The analysis includes the second account, government funds, which have provided additional fiscal support not counted in the statutory deficit, such as special bonds and local government financing [20][21]. - Various fiscal resources have different pathways for policy effectiveness, with some funds being used to stimulate investment and consumption, thereby enhancing the overall impact of fiscal policy [22]. Comparative Analysis - The article compares China's fiscal support with that of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that China's fiscal support has remained stable and gradually improved since 2023 [23][25]. - The broader fiscal deficit, including various fiscal supports, is estimated to be lower than that of the U.S. during the pandemic, indicating a more measured approach to fiscal policy in China [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing scale of China's general public budget expenditure, which is set to exceed 30 trillion yuan for the first time this year, while highlighting the historical trend of actual fiscal expenditures being lower than budgeted amounts, indicating insufficient fiscal spending efforts [1][2]. General Public Budget Expenditure - Since 2020, the execution of general public budget expenditures has consistently been below budgeted amounts, with notable discrepancies observed in 2020 and 2021 where fiscal revenues exceeded expectations but expenditures did not [2][4]. - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the downturn in the real estate sector have significantly contributed to the decline in fiscal revenue growth, which is a key factor in the lower-than-expected actual expenditures [4]. General Public Budget Revenue - Starting from 2022, the execution of general public budget revenues has also fallen short of budgeted figures, primarily due to lower-than-expected tax revenues, although non-tax revenues have somewhat compensated for this shortfall [5]. - In 2020, the budgeted general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous year, while the actual execution showed a smaller decline of 3.9% [5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Discrepancies - The discrepancies between budgeted and actual fiscal revenues and expenditures have been consistent, with significant gaps noted in 2022 and 2023, and projections for 2024 and 2025 indicating similar trends [7][15]. - The article emphasizes that the fiscal spending shortfall is influenced by both lower-than-expected fiscal revenues and the strategic management of fiscal resources across different years [15]. Broader Fiscal Context - The article highlights the complexity of China's fiscal accounting, which includes various funds and budget types, indicating that the fiscal deficit is not merely the difference between revenues and expenditures but also involves transfers and carryover funds [9][10]. - The analysis of fiscal support measures reveals that various types of fiscal resources, including special bonds and local government debt, play a crucial role in providing financial support beyond the statutory deficit [16][18]. Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - The effectiveness of fiscal policies is discussed, noting that simply aggregating fiscal resources may not fully reflect the policy impact, and that the design and efficiency of fiscal resource utilization are critical for achieving desired economic outcomes [19]. - The article suggests that while fiscal spending has increased, it is essential to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of expenditures rather than merely expanding the scale of spending [25].