关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠、 耿佩璇 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 2.政策高频：中央财经委员会第六次会议召开 2.1 中央财经委员会第六次会议召开 7月1日，国家主席习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海 洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业 低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投标，规范地方招商引资，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算 制度和信用体系。推动海洋经济高质量发展，要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极 参与发展海洋经济。要提高海洋科技自主创新能力，培育发展海洋科技领军企业和专精特新中小企业。要加 强海湾经济发展规划研究，有序推进沿海港口群优化整合 。 2.2 中共中央政治局召开会议 6月30日， 中共中央政治局召开会议，审议《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》。会议指出，设立党 中央决策议事协调机构，是健全党中央对重大工作集中统一领导、推动重大任务落实的重要制度安排。进 一步规范党中央决策议事协调机构的设立、职责和运行，有利于重大工作的顶层设计、统筹协调 ...

虽然关税收入能在一定程度上缓解财政压力，但公共债务占GDP的比例仍预计将在2034年前后攀升至 119%。大多数减税措施不太可能显著提振消费，而最大的支出削减将集中在医疗保障和食品补助领 域。鉴于该预算案对经济增长的实际拉动作用有限，Lombard Odier维持此前对美国经济增速的预测： 2025年增长1.3%，2026年增长1.4%。 【白银技术面分析】 尽管美国政府称其财政计划为"一项宏大而美丽的法案"，但Lombard Odier却难以从中看到任何值得乐 观的地方。该机构认为，这项预算案在宏观经济层面几乎没有提振作用，反而可能进一步恶化财政前 景。战略分析师Filippo Pallotti指出，该法案预计将在未来十年内使联邦赤字扩大约4万亿美元；如果减 税措施被永久化，赤字规模甚至可能更高。 周二（7月8日）欧市盘中，白银走势偏弱运行，截至发稿报36.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.11%。特朗普8月1 日的关税实施以及潜在的惩罚性关税带来了政策不确定性，但强劲的经济数据持续削弱贵金属的避险溢 价。 【要闻聚焦】 白银的技术面走势表明，交易者正等待更深幅度的回调后再重新入场。尽管中期上升趋势在关键均线上 方保 ...

Group 1 - International silver prices maintained a critical level at $36.30, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60, indicating market stability [1] - The U.S. employment report for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, suggesting a robust labor market [2] - The optimistic economic data from the U.S. supported a rise in the dollar, impacting silver prices positively [3] Group 2 - Silver prices closed at $36.85, marking a 0.80% increase, and are approaching a double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the June 26 high of $36.83 is necessary for silver to challenge the year-to-date high of $37.31 [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.49 and $38.00, while a drop below $36.00 could lead to further declines [3]

Project Information - The project is titled "Guizhou Normal University Asset Management System Upgrade and Transformation Project" and is being procured by Guizhou Normal University [1] - The budget for the project is unspecified in the document but is indicated to be a single unit procurement [1] - The current asset management system does not fully integrate with the financial budget system of the Guizhou Provincial Finance Department, necessitating an upgrade [1] Supplier Information - The selected supplier for the project is Beijing Jiuqi Software Co., Ltd., which is also the original contractor for the existing asset management system [1][2] - The company is located in Haidian District, Beijing [4] Procurement Method - The procurement will be conducted through a single-source method due to the supplier's prior involvement and expertise with the existing system [3] - This approach is justified by the need for effective integration with the provincial financial system and ensuring data security [1][3] Public Notice - The public notice period for this procurement is from July 2, 2025, to July 8, 2025 [4]

Group 1 - The central financial and economic committee highlights issues in the 2024 central budget management and audit report, indicating a lack of standardization in budget management and instances of excessive tax collection in some regions [1] - There are significant discrepancies between actual revenue and expenditure compared to the budget, suggesting ineffective targeting and execution of certain fiscal policies [1] - Government investment fund allocation and management are criticized for being insufficiently regulated, with some special bond projects lacking proper oversight, leading to concerns about investment efficiency [1] Group 2 - The effectiveness of budget performance management is under scrutiny, with calls for better utilization of evaluation results [1] - Local fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts are prominent, with grassroots entities facing significant pressure to maintain "three guarantees" (basic living, education, and healthcare) [1] - Some local departments are not adequately enforcing financial discipline, resulting in frequent occurrences of unauthorized new hidden debts [1]

当地时间24日，德国政府内阁批准了2025年财政预算草案和2026年财政预算框架。 新预算案聚焦增加投资刺激德国经济增长 2023年和2024年，德国经济已经连续两年陷入负增长。24日内阁批准的新的财政预算草案的核心内容是 增加投资，促进德国经济重新回到增长轨道。 根据2025年的预算草案，2025年德国增加投资额至1157亿欧元，2026年投资额度约为1236亿欧元。这两 个数字相比于2024年745亿欧元的投资额有了大幅提升。德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔24日表示，到 2029年，德国将维持每年约1200亿欧元的投资。 到2029年德国国防开支将占GDP的3.5% 2025年的预算草案还涵盖了一份直到2029年的中期财政计划。根据这份财政计划，到2029年，德国国防 开支将占国内生产总值（GDP）的3.5%。其中，2025年德国的国防开支大约为950亿欧元，到2029年国 防开支将达到1620亿欧元。 朔尔茨领导的上届德国政府于去年11月垮台，导致上届政府没有时间通过2025年财政预算。今年2月， 德国进行了大选，新一届德国政府于5月上台，并且着手制定预算草案。2025年以来，德国一直在使用 临时预算运作 ...

Group 1 - The German government cabinet has approved the draft budget for 2025 and the budget framework for 2026, significantly increasing defense spending [1] - The investment amount for 2025 is set to reach €115.7 billion, and approximately €123.6 billion for 2026, a substantial increase from €74.5 billion in 2024 [1] - The Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, stated that Germany will maintain an annual investment of around €120 billion until 2029 [1] Group 2 - The mid-term financial plan included in the 2025 budget draft indicates that defense spending will account for 3.5% of GDP by 2029 [1] - The defense budget for 2025 is approximately €95 billion, projected to rise to €162 billion by 2029 [1]

德国政府内阁于24日批准了2025年财政预算草案和2026年财政预算框架。新预算案的核心是增加投资， 促进经济重回增长轨道。根据预算草案，2025年德国增加投资额至1157亿欧元，2026年约为1236亿欧 元，相比2024年745亿欧元的投资额大幅增加。德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔表示，到2029年，德国 将维持每年约1200亿欧元的投资。此外，预算草案还涵盖了一份直到2029年的中期财政计划，计划到 2029年德国国防开支将占GDP的3.5%，2025年国防开支约为950亿欧元，到2029年将达到1620亿欧元。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Finance Minister expresses confidence that the parliament will approve the budget for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 1 - The Thai government is preparing for the fiscal year 2026 budget proposal [1] - The approval of the budget is seen as crucial for the country's economic planning and development [1]

市场消息：美国参议院财政委员会将于6月12日召开2026财年预算听证会。 ...