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供需库存三降,螺纹低位震荡
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 02:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has weakened, with supply, demand, and inventory all decreasing. Considering the support from raw material costs, the price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [75]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic and policy information includes a meeting between Chinese and US leaders, resulting in tariff adjustments, suspension of some restrictions, and plans to strengthen cooperation in drug control and expand agricultural trade [7]. - China's central bank data shows that at the end of September, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates and monthly changes, with net cash injection in the first three quarters [8]. - National Bureau of Statistics data indicates a decline in national fixed - asset investment from January to September, with different trends in infrastructure, real estate development, and related construction and sales indicators [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The table shows the prices, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and coking coal, with different price trends among these commodities [22]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The table presents the basis data (spot - futures) and related prices of the rebar main contract on different dates [23]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (Various Steel Products) - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Spot - Futures) - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.13% on November 7, 2025, up from 81.75% on October 31, 2025 [34]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profits - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On November 7, 2025, the output of four types of steel (rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 772.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.005762947 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.020802716 [44]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel Products - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - The table shows the social inventory and its month - on - month changes of rebar on different dates [64]. 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.15 Rebar Mill Inventory - The table shows the mill inventory, its month - on - month changes, and social inventory data of rebar on different dates [60]. 3.15 Rebar Total Inventory - The total rebar inventory on November 7, 2025, was 592.54 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.98 million tons [65]. 3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption - On November 7, 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 218.52 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.67 million tons [68]. 4. Future Outlook - After the China - US leaders' meeting, there were tariff and policy adjustments. Fundamentally, raw material prices rose, steel mill profits declined, and some mills carried out maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the output of five major steel products this week. The supply of rebar also contracted [74]. - In terms of demand, the peak consumption season has passed, and the consumption of five major steel products and building materials has decreased. The apparent consumption is at a low level this year, and consumption is under pressure. Due to supply contraction, the total steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar [75]. - On the raw material side, the supply of imported iron ore is stable, while coal and coke supply is weak due to safety inspections and import impacts, providing price support [75].