证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 低基数助力8月工业利润转正 债市仍偏震荡 2025年9月27日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约整体走势为探底回升，周一小幅上涨，周二、周三连续下行，周四继续下行、触底后强力 反弹、收复当日失地，周五延续反弹，全周30年国债收跌0.60%，10年国债跌0.07%，5年国债跌0.09%，2年国债 跌0.02%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 9月26日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与9月19日相比表现为整体小幅上行。2年期国债到期收益率从9月 19日的1.49%上行2个BP至9月26日的1.51% ；5年期国债到期收益率持平于1.62%；10年期国债到期收益率 持平于1.88% ；30年期国债到期收益率从9月19日的2.20%上行2个BP至9月26日的2.22% 。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-8月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1-7月份同比下降1.7 ...

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/8/13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,451 | -33↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1353836 | -27724↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -54,820 | -6310↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 4 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 13, 2025, to discuss personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies, featuring officials from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, People's Bank of China, and financial regulatory authorities [1]. Group 1 - The press conference aims to provide insights into the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy [1]. - The event will also cover the loan interest subsidy policy for service industry entities [1]. - Key officials from relevant government departments will be present to answer questions from the media [1].

Core Viewpoint - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Stockholm economic and trade talks outlines mutual agreements to suspend certain tariffs on goods between the two countries, reflecting ongoing negotiations and commitments made in previous discussions [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The United States will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining a remaining 10% tariff as per the administrative order issued on April 2, 2025 [1]. - China will also suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while keeping a remaining 10% tariff in place, in accordance with the tax committee announcement [1]. Group 2: Non-Tariff Measures - China will take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the United States as agreed in the Geneva joint statement [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and mid - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation and weakness [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - On the night of last Friday, domestic methanol slightly closed down 0.83% to 2383 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillation - weakening trend on Monday [5] Core Logic - The recent Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden led to the continuation of the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures as scheduled. After the digestion of positive factors, the sharp decline in coal futures prices dragged down the methanol market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking, and rebar may enter a range-bound consolidation. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading on the RB2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand for rebar has declined, inventory has increased, and steel prices have faced downward pressure. It is suggested to buy slightly out-of-the-money put options [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton (-153), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3390 yuan/ton (-100) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 211.06 million tons (-0.9) [7]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 203.41 million tons (-13.17), a year - on - year decrease of 12.21 million tons [7]. - Factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory rose. The total rebar inventory was 546.29 million tons (+7.65), a year - on - year decrease of 196.08 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 58.88 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management [9]. - Supply and demand: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% and an electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate of 74.21% for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand was average, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased [9]. - Cost: Coking coal prices fluctuated from continuous limit - up to limit - down, and iron ore prices declined, weakening cost support [9]. - Technical: The RB2510 contract decreased in volume, with the daily K - line testing the support around MA20 (3200). The MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red bar shrank [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices were under pressure and weakened this week. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, with a spread of - 54 yuan/ton on the 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [11][15]. - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On August 1st, the warehouse receipt volume was 85034 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2993 tons; the net short position was 84955 contracts, an increase of 93791 contracts from the previous week [17][21]. - Spot prices decreased this week, and the basis strengthened. On August 1st, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar was 3390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The basis on the 1st was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton [23][27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, while that of coke increased. On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane powder ore in Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - class metallurgical coke in Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [29][33]. - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased this period, and port inventory decreased. From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports was 2319.7 million tons, a decrease of 192.1 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14222.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173.67 million tons [35][38]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory declined. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13%); coke daily output was 51.83 (-0.09), and coke inventory was 46.52 (-3.6) [40][42]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [44][46]. - The weekly rebar production decreased. On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises on July 31st was 211.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from last week [47][49]. - The electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate increased. On August 1st, the average start - up rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 74.21%, a 2.18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [50][52]. - The total rebar inventory increased. On July 31st, the in - factory inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 162.15 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from last week; the inventory in 35 major cities was 384.14 million tons, an increase of 11.17 million tons from last week [53][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - From January to June 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year [56][58]. 3.5 Options Market - In the consumer off - season, the apparent demand for rebar declined, inventory increased, and steel prices faced downward pressure. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both沪胶 2509 and合成胶 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly" and a mid - term view of "oscillating strongly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time period definitions: short - term is within one week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1]. - For calculating price changes, for products with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise [2][3]. 3.2沪胶（RU） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic沪胶 futures 2509 contract closed 1.26% lower at 14,535 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [5]. 3.3合成胶（BR） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic合成胶 futures 2509 contract closed 0.60% lower at 11,510 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5]. - The core reason is the decline in coal prices and the digestion of positive factors after the Sino - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is the decline in coal prices [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - After the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, although there was in - depth communication, differences still exist. After the positive factors were digested, affected by the sharp decline in coal futures prices, domestic methanol slightly closed down 0.90% to 2410 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [5].