| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产低于预 | | ★ | | 期，供需预计趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，行情持续回落。但后期不排除 | | | | 仍会有政策扰动，同时在美联储释放宽松信号后，短期或反弹。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需以及库存均略增，基本面相对平稳。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。期货偏弱运行，连续下跌后短期下方空间或已有限，短线或有反 | | ★ | | 弹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，环保限产力度不及预期，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 基本面中性偏弱。宏观情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第八轮提涨，焦企利润有所改善，利润总体转正。当前焦炭供需总体相对 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 平衡，产量及库存偏 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 新纪元期货研究 8/22/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差（未 折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/8/15 | 2025/8/22 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3188 | 3119 | -69 | -2.16 | 3280 | 161 | | 热卷 | HC2510 | 3439 | 3361 | -78 | -2.27 | 3400 | 39 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 776 | 770 | -6 | -0.77 | 778 | 8 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1730 | 1679 | -51 | -2.95 | 1620 | -59 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1230 | 1162 | -68 | -5.53 | 1350 | 188 | | 玻璃 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Mid - to long - term: After continuous increases due to policy speculation, black - series commodities mainly showed a volatile correction this week. Market sentiment cooled, and the market logic gradually returned to fundamentals. For steel mills, the profitability rate continued to increase, daily hot metal output continued to decline, and overseas ore shipments rebounded. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, and in - plant inventory continued to decline, but the fundamental changes were limited. For soda ash, production decreased month - on - month, but the oversupply situation continued, and the supply - demand fundamentals were poor, with recent fluctuations mainly following the chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the release and implementation of relevant policies [51][55]. - Short - term: The main contracts of black - series commodities had sharp price fluctuations recently, and it was recommended to operate with caution and light positions. The main contracts of glass and soda ash closed significantly lower this week, and short - term cautious observation was recommended [52][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2510) | - 89 (from 3294 to 3205) | - 2.70% | 3370 | 165 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510) | - 66 (from 3456 to 3390) | - 1.91% | 3410 | 20 | | Iron Ore (I2509) | - 32 (from 811 to 779) | - 3.95% | 779 | 0 | | Coke (J2509) | - 134 (from 1735 to 1601) | - 7.72% | 1520 | - 81 | | Coking Coal (JM2509) | - 153 (from 1199 to 1046) | - 12.77% | 1250 | 205 | | Glass (FG509) | - 190 (from 1307 to 1117) | - 14.54% | 1320 | 203 | | Soda Ash (SA509) | - 161 (from 1408 to 1247) | - 11.43% | 1359 | 112 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On July 31, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to July 24 [7]. - Supply: As of August 1, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.82% (+0.64), daily hot metal output was 240.71 tons (- 1.52), and rebar production was 2.1106 million tons (- 0.9) [12]. - Demand: In the week of August 1, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.0341 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 131,700 tons; the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 78,119 tons [16]. - Inventory: In the week of August 1, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.6215 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,200 tons [20]. 3.3 Float Glass - Supply: As of August 1, the number of float - glass production lines in operation was 222 (unchanged from last week), weekly output was 1,115,225 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7050 tons). As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points), and the start - up rate was 75% (unchanged from last week) [25]. - Inventory: On August 1, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes compared to July 25; the available days of in - plant inventory were 25.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days [30]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [34]. 3.4 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to last week; production was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons compared to last week [39]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared to July 25 [44]. - Production and Sales Rate: As of August 1, the production - sales rate of soda ash was 109.83%, an increase of 4.17 percentage points compared to July 25 [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, the market may focus on strong reality. With weakened foreign ore shipments, high short - term arrivals leading to inventory accumulation, and relatively high demand, the overall inventory accumulation pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments. After the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines in June, they will enter the maintenance period in early July, and overall foreign ore shipments will enter a phased decline cycle. However, due to the significant increase in shipments since late May, the arrival volume is expected to remain high in the short term, meaning near - end supply pressure remains, while the expected increase pressure in the far - month eases, which is conducive to a far - month rebound [3] Demand - China's daily average hot metal output has rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks, showing strong demand for iron ore and boosting the valuation level of the futures market. The current daily average hot metal output is 242.29 (month - on - month + 0.11). With a high profitability rate of steel mills, considerable blast furnace profits, comprehensive deep losses in the short - process steelmaking, and a significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will remain strong, and high demand will support the price [3] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has declined month - on - month, and the low - inventory management model continues. Daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills in the Northeast. As the month - on - month increase in arrival volume is greater than that in the port clearance volume, port inventory has increased slightly this period. It is expected that inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but due to high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3] Price - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is from 710 yuan/ton to 740 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE08 contract is from 93 to 97 US dollars/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is mainly in a state of shock, with different trends for each variety. The demand side is generally weak, but there are certain differences in supply and inventory for each product, which affects their price trends. The market is also affected by factors such as policies, cost, and international trade [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Steel - The steel market is mainly in a state of shock. The demand for rebar remains stable, production increases, and inventory removal slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coils declines, production remains high, and inventory accumulates slightly. The overall domestic demand is weak, but the lower support of the disk is strengthened, and the upside space is restricted [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be in a state of shock. The global supply is at a high level, and domestic port inventory begins to rise. The terminal demand in the off - season has toughness, and steel mills have no strong willingness to cut production. The market sentiment has improved, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited [3] Coke - The coke price has rebounded significantly, but it is likely to be a short - term market. The coking industry has a price increase expectation, production profit is meager, and production has declined. The overall inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has also rebounded significantly, probably a short - term market. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the production of coking coal mines has declined. The spot auction market has improved slightly, and the terminal inventory continues to decline [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese follows the steel trend. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production has begun to increase. The manganese ore inventory is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and the short - term inventory is low, with an upward price trend [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon follows the steel trend. The iron water production remains high, the export demand has little marginal impact, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The short - term trend is bullish [8]

Report Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 06 - 23: Off - season Market Continues, Black Narrow - range Fluctuation" [1] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Core Views Steel - Price: Spot prices rose slightly, while the futures market fluctuated at a low level [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production stopped falling and rebounded, while electric furnace production continued to decline [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, while that of plates accelerated [7] - Demand: Building materials demand declined month - on - month, and there was great downward pressure on the domestic demand for plates [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits remained high, while electric furnace profits continued to narrow [7] - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit [7] - Summary: In May, the macro data was weak, and the market was worried about the drag on consumption data after the slowdown of national subsidies. The overall supply increased month - on - month. The market still showed off - season characteristics. It is expected that the price will return to the off - season fluctuating and falling trend. Maintain the mid - term short - selling idea [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices fluctuated, and the futures market rebounded at a low level [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also weakened [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand improved month - on - month [7] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, while downstream inventories increased slightly [7] - Shipping: Shipping costs both declined [7] - Spread: The futures spread narrowed, and the spread declined slightly [7] - Summary: Last week, the supply - demand situation improved slightly month - on - month. Considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further iron ore price increases is low. Maintain the long - term bearish view [7] Summary by Directory Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Shanghai rebar spot prices and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed certain trends. Last week, rebar futures fluctuated sideways, with the main contract rising 0.77% to close at 2992. Spot prices rose slightly, with rebar in East China reported at 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan week - on - week [10][13] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 242.18 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons week - on - week [16] - Electric furnace production: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.54%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points week - on - week. The average operating rate was 70.93%, a decrease of 3.08 percentage points week - on - week [24] - Product output: Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons week - on - week [27] 1.3 Demand - Building materials: According to the survey data of Centennial Building, as of June 17, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The overall terminal demand was gradually declining [30] - Plates: From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 706,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The manufacturing demand was expected to weaken [33] 1.4 Profit - Long - process: The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. Long - process steel mills benefited from the four - round coke price cut and still had high profits [38] - Electric furnace: As of the 20th, the average profit of sample electric arc furnace steel mills was - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton day - on - day [38] 1.5 Inventory - Building materials: The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,338.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.67 tons. Rebar inventory was still being de - stocked, but the speed slowed down [41] - Plates: The hot - rolled coil inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.4 days to 7.2 days. Both factory and social inventories changed from previous accumulation to de - stocking [44] 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 01 contract narrowed significantly. It was recommended to close reverse arbitrage positions at around 80 last week, and all positions have been closed at a profit [47] 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was 7, an increase of 6 week - on - week. The contango situation was completely reversed. The near - term contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - term contract also faces risks [50] 1.8 Inter - product - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 124, an increase of 11 week - on - week. The spot spread was 140, an increase of 50 week - on - week. There is no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing [53] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing flat at 703. Spot prices rose synchronously, with PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 1 yuan to 710 yuan/ton [58] 2.2 Supply - Shipments: Global iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 2043.6 tons, and those from Brazil were 759.2 tons [61][64] - Arrivals: The arrivals at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current value was 2517.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 156 tons [67] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased. The current output was 242.18 tons/day, an increase of 0.57 tons/day week - on - week [70] - Speculative demand: The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.9 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons week - on - week. Downstream steel mills resumed production, and there was still overall restocking demand [73] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current total inventory was 14433.56 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [76] - Downstream inventory: On June 19, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2719.47 tons, an increase of 56.73 tons from the previous period [79] 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.77 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 22.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.08 US dollars/ton week - on - week [82] 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 29, a narrowing of 1.5 week - on - week. The 09 contract was at a discount of 28, a narrowing of 6 last week [85] - The coke - to - ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26. The two ratios changed little, and the spread trading fluidity was not high [88]