来源：滚动播报 华尔街银行正为年末货币市场压力升高做准备，分析人士预计，资金压力可能促使美联储考虑采取措施 重建这个规模达12.6万亿美元市场的流动性缓冲。本周美联储的利率会议是央行自12月开始停止缩表以 来首次召开的货币政策会议。美联储尚未厘清停止缩表后的政策，包括国债投资组合的构成。随着融资 成本持续高企，越来越多的市场参与者认为决策者应采取更具体的措施来缓解流动性压力，例如重启对 证券的直接购买以充实金融体系准备金。他们预计美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周三结束的货币政策 会议上给出下一步行动的线索。道明证券美国利率策略主管Gennadiy Goldberg表示："鲍威尔可能暗示 美联储正在更加密切关注收益率曲线前端市场，他可能还会暗示央行正接近不得不开始增加准备金的节 点。这在我看来是真正的问题。我认为他们正在通过年底市场表现来判断系统中还有多少腾挪空间。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to make a significant interest rate decision amid the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown, with a likely 25 basis point rate cut and an end to the balance sheet reduction plan to address labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - A 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain, driven by concerns over labor market risks despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is focusing on labor market threats, with recent data indicating a potential shift from "low hiring, low firing" to "no hiring, layoffs," which could jeopardize the Fed's employment goals [4][6]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are increasing, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others express concerns about inflation [3][4]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, anticipate that the Fed will announce a halt to its balance sheet reduction due to recent liquidity tightening in the money market [5]. - The Fed currently allows $50 billion in Treasury securities and $350 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet monthly, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries while allowing MBS to continue rolling off [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Guidance - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [2][6]. - Analysts expect that the Fed will refrain from giving explicit forward guidance for December due to the unreliability of upcoming labor market data [6][7]. - The absence of reliable data may lead to a situation where skipping a widely anticipated rate cut could appear awkward for the Fed [6][7].