BTC BTC小级别已经突破自下跌以来的ma均线压力，当前形态处于一个上升通道内运行，支撑8.6w，短期暂时开始止跌反抽行情，目前来看力度比较偏弱， 88000-89000大级别阻力位震荡盘整中。 ETH ETH2小时到1日线反弹动能在增强，目前仍然在震荡上涨反弹中，除非有强势的空头K线跌破2855的低点并反弹不再新高 才认为会开始下跌回调二测前 低。 （1）空单要关注3046、3082、3130这三个点位。3046-3082是弱阻力，如果多头强势一点，一般直接到3082-3130。 （2）3130是3000关口上方的第一个强压力位。 可以采取挂单一个最高点，另外两个点位以实时分批介入的方式来做这个逢高空的单。 比特币4小时级别还在喘息，并没有从大跌中缓过神来，目前市场已经有的预期是12月降息以及12月停止缩表，这些都会给市场提供一些流动性，但是能 流入多少到风险资产还不好说； 山寨层面还是要等大盘止跌起稳之后才能操作，否则进去可能就变成接盘侠； ASTER $大家都在吹的币种，这几次上涨都未出现向上的上涨。由此可见，主力已经在高位完成的派发的动作...市场上涨，aster不涨反跌，炒作过去，剩下全是 裸泳的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, primarily due to concerns over labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market, while also potentially halting its balance sheet reduction plan [4][5][21]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, which is seen as almost certain due to increasing concerns about the labor market, despite ongoing inflation pressures [5][10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is largely influenced by the need to address risks in the labor market, as indicated by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][10]. - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding the future outlook on interest rates, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation while acknowledging labor market risks [10][19]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Analysts warn that the U.S. economy is in a "low hiring, low firing" state, with a clear risk of evolving into a "no hiring, layoffs" scenario, which could jeopardize the Fed's goal of maximizing employment [15][16]. - The FOMC's September meeting minutes revealed that most participants acknowledged increased downside risks to employment, highlighting concerns over potential hiring cuts and layoffs [16][20]. - The labor market's health is being monitored through weekly unemployment claims data, which remains a key indicator [17]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed is likely to announce the cessation of its balance sheet reduction plan due to recent signs of liquidity tightening in the money market [21][22]. - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, expect the Fed to take action to stabilize the financial system, especially after recent fluctuations in overnight financing rates [22][23]. - The Fed currently allows $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet each month, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries [26][27]. Group 4: Data Limitations - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [6][28]. - The absence of reliable employment and inflation data complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with expectations that Powell may avoid giving explicit forward guidance during the upcoming press conference [30][31]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December, despite the data vacuum, as the market has fully priced in the likelihood of another cut [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to make a significant interest rate decision amid the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown, with a likely 25 basis point rate cut and an end to the balance sheet reduction plan to address labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - A 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain, driven by concerns over labor market risks despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is focusing on labor market threats, with recent data indicating a potential shift from "low hiring, low firing" to "no hiring, layoffs," which could jeopardize the Fed's employment goals [4][6]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are increasing, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others express concerns about inflation [3][4]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, anticipate that the Fed will announce a halt to its balance sheet reduction due to recent liquidity tightening in the money market [5]. - The Fed currently allows $50 billion in Treasury securities and $350 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet monthly, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries while allowing MBS to continue rolling off [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Guidance - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [2][6]. - Analysts expect that the Fed will refrain from giving explicit forward guidance for December due to the unreliability of upcoming labor market data [6][7]. - The absence of reliable data may lead to a situation where skipping a widely anticipated rate cut could appear awkward for the Fed [6][7].

美联储政策展望 - Bank of America anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - The potential US government shutdown introduces uncertainty into the outlook due to data ambiguity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to announce the halt of balance sheet reduction in the upcoming policy meeting rather than in December, aiming to maintain its policy credibility after unexpected high repo rates this week [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank strategists revealed the expectation of the Federal Reserve's announcement regarding the cessation of balance sheet reduction [1] - The decision is influenced by the need to avoid a "serious blow" to the Fed's policy credibility due to the recent spike in repo rates [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, particularly in the technology sector, which fell nearly 4%, with the Hang Seng Index breaking the support level of 25,700 [1] - The decline is attributed to the risk exposure of U.S. regional banks, but its direct impact on Hong Kong stocks is limited. The resulting decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts may be beneficial [1] - The market correction is seen as a result of excessive prior gains, with tariffs also contributing to a suppression of risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In the trading session, only two Hong Kong stock ETFs experienced redemptions, with one related to negative news about two automotive companies. The remaining ETFs saw net inflows, with 13 products collectively gaining over 1.256 billion shares [2] - The Hong Kong technology ETF received significant attention, with a net subscription of 84.85 million shares, indicating strong investor interest despite the market downturn [3] Group 3 - Long-term investors are advised to view the current market adjustment as a buying opportunity, particularly in leading technology and innovative pharmaceutical stocks, which have seen substantial corrections [3] - The copper-to-oil ratio is highlighted as a potential indicator of market trends, with a higher ratio suggesting stronger economic growth and lower inflation, serving as a predictive tool for market movements [3]

Core Points - The primary motivation for Powell to halt the balance sheet reduction is to prevent a liquidity crisis in the financial markets [1] - Powell indicated that signs of tightening liquidity conditions are emerging, including a general rise in repo rates and more pronounced temporary pressures on specific dates [2][15] - The Federal Reserve's long-term plan is to stop the balance sheet reduction when bank reserves are "slightly above" what is considered "adequate" [15][17] Group 1: Liquidity and Market Rates - SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) is a key short-term interest rate mentioned by Powell, representing the average rate for overnight repo transactions secured by U.S. Treasury securities [5][6] - The current Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is set between 4.00% and 4.25%, with the ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repo Rate) at 4.00% and IORB (Interest on Reserve Balances) at 4.25% [8][9] - The mechanism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate corridor is designed to keep market rates, including SOFR, within this range, but temporary breaches can occur if bank reserves are insufficient [11][12] Group 2: Historical Context and Risks - A similar liquidity crisis occurred in September 2019, when the SOFR jumped from 2.2% to 5.25% due to a sudden drop in bank reserves, leading to a freeze in repo transactions [14] - Powell's remarks reflect a desire to avoid repeating the 2019 crisis, where the Fed had to intervene urgently to restore liquidity [15] - The potential for a systemic risk arises if the balance sheet reduction continues beyond the target level, leading to overly scarce reserves [17] Group 3: Employment and Economic Conditions - Powell noted an increase in downside risks to employment and described the labor market as "slightly weak," indicating a need for a more neutral policy stance [18][19] - Halting the balance sheet reduction is seen as a preventive measure to provide a stable financial environment, especially as the economy shows signs of fatigue [19] - The Fed's cautious communication regarding balance sheet operations aims to manage market expectations and avoid unnecessary volatility [22]

Core Viewpoint - Powell's primary motivation for halting the balance sheet reduction is to prevent a liquidity crisis in the financial markets [4][19][21]. Group 1: Primary Motivation - Powell observed signs indicating that liquidity conditions are tightening, including a general rise in repo rates and specific temporary pressures on certain dates [4][19]. - The plan aims to avoid a situation similar to the liquidity crunch experienced in September 2019, where the SOFR spiked dramatically due to a sudden drop in bank reserves [18][20]. - The Federal Reserve's long-term strategy is to stop reducing the balance sheet when bank reserves are slightly above what is considered "adequate" [21][22]. Group 2: Secondary Motivation - Powell noted an increase in downside risks to employment and described the labor market as "slightly fatigued," suggesting that halting the balance sheet reduction could help stabilize the financial environment [23][24]. - This shift in policy is seen as a preventive measure to avoid exacerbating recession risks amid signs of economic fatigue [24]. - Powell emphasized the importance of clear communication to allow market participants to adjust their portfolios in response to the anticipated policy changes [26].