多位美联储官员近日密集发声，包括鲍威尔盟友Daly和Williams，支持在12月再次降息，认为劳动力市场面临的风险已超过通胀，这一系列表态推动市 场对美联储的宽松预期迅速升温。 最新表态来自旧金山联储主席Mary Daly。Daly周一警告称，劳动力市场面临"非线性"恶化的风险，而Waller也公开支持12月降息。该观点与纽约联储 主席John Williams上周的鸽派立场遥相呼应，后者强调需要避免给就业市场带来"不必要的风险"。 此外，美联储理事Christopher Waller周一也表态支持在12月降息，并从 2026 年开始采取更加灵活的政策。 受此影响，市场迅速做出反应。 利率掉期市场的交易员目前预计，美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的可能性已从一周前的约40%飙升至80%。 美国 国债连续第三个交易日上涨，对政策更敏感的两年期国债收益率在过去两个交易日大幅走低，而十年期国债收益率则跌至本月最低点。 这一决策前景的复杂之处在于，由于政府停摆导致的数据发布延迟，美联储在12月10日开会时，将无法看到关键的10月和11月就业报告。这使得官员 们不得不在信息不完整的情况下做出判断，增加了决策的不确定 ...

多位美联储主席鲍威尔的核心盟友近日密集发声，支持在12月再次降息，认为劳动力市场面临的风险已 超过通胀，这一系列表态推动市场对美联储的宽松预期迅速升温。 叶桢，华尔街见闻 这些官员认为，尽管通胀率仍徘徊在近3%，高于2%的目标，但关税带来的成本压力比预期温和。 Williams指出，没有证据表明关税引发了二次效应或其他价格溢出。因此，预防劳动力市场急剧走弱的 最新表态来自旧金山联储主席Mary Daly和美联储理事Christopher Waller。Daly周一警告称，劳动力市场 面临"非线性"恶化的风险，而Waller也公开支持12月降息。他们的观点与纽约联储主席John Williams上 周的鸽派立场遥相呼应，后者强调需要避免给就业市场带来"不必要的风险"。 受此影响，市场迅速做出反应。利率掉期市场的交易员目前预计，美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的 可能性已从一周前的约40%飙升至80%。美国国债连续第三个交易日上涨，对政策更敏感的两年期国债 收益率在过去两个交易日大幅走低，而十年期国债收益率则跌至本月最低点。 这一决策前景的复杂之处在于，由于政府停摆导致的数据发布延迟，美联储在12月10日开会时 ...

多位美联储主席鲍威尔的核心盟友近日密集发声，支持在12月再次降息，认为劳动力市场面临的风险已超过通胀，这一系列表态推动市场对美 联储的宽松预期迅速升温。 最新表态来自旧金山联储主席Mary Daly和美联储理事Christopher Waller。华尔街见闻此前提及，Daly周一警告称，劳动力市场面临"非线性"恶 化的风险，而Waller也公开支持12月降息。他们的观点与纽约联储主席John Williams上周的鸽派立场遥相呼应，后者强调需要避免给就业市场带 来"不必要的风险"。 受此影响，市场迅速做出反应。利率掉期市场的交易员目前预计，美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的可能性已从一周前的约40%飙升至 80%。美国国债连续第三个交易日上涨，对政策更敏感的两年期国债收益率在过去两个交易日大幅走低，而十年期国债收益率则跌至本月最低 点。 这一决策前景的复杂之处在于，由于政府停摆导致的数据发布延迟，美联储在12月10日开会时，将无法看到关键的10月和11月就业报告。这使 得官员们不得不在信息不完整的情况下做出判断，增加了决策的不确定性。 鲍威尔盟友密集发声，就业市场风险成焦点 美联储内部最具影响力的几位官员已 ...

旧金山联储主席Mary Daly表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，理由是她认为就业市场突然恶化的可能 性更大，且比通胀飙升更难管理。 周一，Daly在接受媒体采访时警告称，美国劳动力市场目前已足够脆弱，面临非线性变化的风险。她表 示： 对于劳动力市场，我没有信心我们能抢在问题前面。 相比之下，通胀大幅反弹的风险较低，因为关税推动的成本上涨已比今年早些时候预期的更为温和。 尽管Daly今年没有投票权，但"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos称，Daly的观点尤为值得关注，因为她 在公开场合很少偏离美联储主席鲍威尔的立场。 华尔街见闻提及，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams）上周五也表态支持降息，称避免劳动力市场 面临"不应有的风险"与实现通胀目标同等重要。 劳动力市场风险优先于通胀 在Daly看来，当前政策权衡的重心已转向劳动力市场。 美联储连续两次会议降息后，利率降至3.75%至4%的区间，但美联储的决策者仍面临艰难抉择——通胀 率仍徘徊在近3%的水平，高于2%的目标。 Daly的表态表明，预防劳动力市场突然恶化的风险已成为首要任务。在12月9日至10日的美联储议息会 议上，主席鲍威尔将在调 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a dual challenge with inflation remaining above the target of 2% for nearly four years, currently around 3%, raising concerns among hawks about persistent inflationary pressures [2][4][13] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, particularly in the tech sector, where AI and automation are replacing jobs, leading to urgent concerns for the Fed [5][6] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have contributed to a stagflationary environment, pushing prices higher while dampening hiring and economic activity, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [13][14] - Without tariffs, inflation might have stabilized around 2.5%, but current levels are closer to 3%, indicating a significant impact from tariff policies [4] Consumer Behavior - The top 10% of consumers are driving approximately 50% of spending growth, benefiting from rising stock portfolios and home prices, while the lower 75% are facing higher prices and job security concerns [9][10] - Consumer sentiment surveys indicate that the lower income distribution is increasingly worried about job prospects, reflecting a divided economic outlook [10][11] Federal Reserve Strategy - The Fed is emphasizing the need to cushion downside risks to the labor market, indicating a shift in focus towards employment stability [14][15] - There is a division within the Fed, with some members advocating for caution in rate cuts due to inflationary pressures, while others prioritize labor market concerns [15]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, highlights downside risks to the labor market and upside risks regarding inflation persistence during a recent event [1] Group 1: Labor Market - There are identified downside risks to the labor market, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 2: Inflation - Musalem sees upside risks in terms of inflation persistence, suggesting that inflation may remain elevated for a longer period than previously anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut follows a previous reduction of 25 basis points on September 17 [1]. - This decision is part of a broader strategy to address risks in the labor market, particularly in light of signs of weakness in employment data released before the government shutdown [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of monitoring risks in the labor market, indicating ongoing concerns about economic stability [3]. - There remains internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, influenced by missing key economic data and persistent inflationary pressures [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00% on October 29, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - This decision follows a previous rate cut of 25 basis points on September 17, indicating a continued easing monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Market observers believe the rate cut is primarily aimed at mitigating risks in the labor market, which has shown signs of weakness prior to the government shutdown [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of monitoring risks in the labor market, although there are still internal disagreements regarding the future path of rate cuts due to missing key economic data and ongoing inflation pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, primarily due to concerns over labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market, while also potentially halting its balance sheet reduction plan [4][5][21]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, which is seen as almost certain due to increasing concerns about the labor market, despite ongoing inflation pressures [5][10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is largely influenced by the need to address risks in the labor market, as indicated by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][10]. - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding the future outlook on interest rates, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation while acknowledging labor market risks [10][19]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Analysts warn that the U.S. economy is in a "low hiring, low firing" state, with a clear risk of evolving into a "no hiring, layoffs" scenario, which could jeopardize the Fed's goal of maximizing employment [15][16]. - The FOMC's September meeting minutes revealed that most participants acknowledged increased downside risks to employment, highlighting concerns over potential hiring cuts and layoffs [16][20]. - The labor market's health is being monitored through weekly unemployment claims data, which remains a key indicator [17]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed is likely to announce the cessation of its balance sheet reduction plan due to recent signs of liquidity tightening in the money market [21][22]. - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, expect the Fed to take action to stabilize the financial system, especially after recent fluctuations in overnight financing rates [22][23]. - The Fed currently allows $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet each month, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries [26][27]. Group 4: Data Limitations - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [6][28]. - The absence of reliable employment and inflation data complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with expectations that Powell may avoid giving explicit forward guidance during the upcoming press conference [30][31]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December, despite the data vacuum, as the market has fully priced in the likelihood of another cut [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to make a significant interest rate decision amid the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown, with a likely 25 basis point rate cut and an end to the balance sheet reduction plan to address labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - A 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain, driven by concerns over labor market risks despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is focusing on labor market threats, with recent data indicating a potential shift from "low hiring, low firing" to "no hiring, layoffs," which could jeopardize the Fed's employment goals [4][6]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are increasing, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others express concerns about inflation [3][4]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, anticipate that the Fed will announce a halt to its balance sheet reduction due to recent liquidity tightening in the money market [5]. - The Fed currently allows $50 billion in Treasury securities and $350 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet monthly, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries while allowing MBS to continue rolling off [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Guidance - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [2][6]. - Analysts expect that the Fed will refrain from giving explicit forward guidance for December due to the unreliability of upcoming labor market data [6][7]. - The absence of reliable data may lead to a situation where skipping a widely anticipated rate cut could appear awkward for the Fed [6][7].