2025年全球央行年会于8月21日—23日在美国怀俄明州的山区度假胜地杰克逊霍尔举行，全球投资者的 目光再度聚焦于此。而美联储主席鲍威尔在年会上的讲话，被市场普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号。另 一方面，全球主要经济体央行行长同时发出警告，劳动力风险正成为威胁经济增长和物价稳定的重大挑 战。 鲍威尔立场松动 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期，这几乎肯定是他最后一次以美联储主席的身份出席杰克逊霍尔央行 年会。"短期内，通胀风险向上倾斜，就业风险向下倾斜，这是一个具有挑战性的局面。"他进一步解释 道，"由于政策处于限制性区域，基线前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要调整我们的政策立场。" 在演讲中，鲍威尔指出，风险平衡似乎正在发生转变，并强调就业市场面临的下行风险正在增加。美联 储的政策利率比一年前低了100个基点，失业率仍然很低，目前的情况允许美联储在考虑调整政策立场 时谨慎行事。在基准前景和风险平衡不断变化的背景下，美联储可能需要调整政策立场，这番表态被广 泛视为他为启动降息所做的铺垫。 美股也在鲍威尔讲话提振下收复了此前所有失地，标普500指数结束日线五连阴，道指创下今年以来的 首个收盘纪录。 嘉信理财在市场展望中写 ...

当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表讲话。他强调，尽管 通胀风险依然存在，但就业市场的疲软正成为政策权衡中的关键变量，为9月降息打开可能性。 对冲基金大山资本（Great Hill Capital）董事长托马斯·海耶斯（Thomas Hayes）表示："鲍威尔的立场比 预期更鸽派。他已经为9月采取行动做好了准备，除非就业报告出奇强劲，否则降息几乎板上钉钉。" 他特别提及7月的就业数据修正，显示就业增长远低于此前报告水平。"这种异常情况表明，就业面临的 下行风险正在上升。若这些风险成为现实，可能迅速以裁员激增和失业率上升的形式反映。"鲍威尔 说。 美国劳工部此前发布的报告显示，7月非农就业人数增加了7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11.5万。5月和6 月的岗位新增脚此前公布的数据大幅下修了25.8万。 鲍威尔同时提醒，政策调整需谨慎。"在我们考虑政策立场的变化之际，失业率和其他劳动力市场指标 的稳定使我们能够谨慎行事。但与此同时，基准前景和风险平衡的变化可能使调整政策立场成为恰当之 举。" 鲍威尔在讲话中并未回避通胀的持续性。他表示："关税对消费者价格的影响现在已清晰可见，但预 ...

美联储博斯蒂克表示，就业市场的风险有所增加，但承诺降息仍为时过早，在美联储下次会议前将有更 多数据出炉，且未来几个月通胀料仍将上升。博斯蒂克表示，他仍然认为今年降息25个百分点可能是最 合适的，但"我们实际上将获得大量有关通胀的数据，以及就业方面的情况，这将让我思考……通货膨 胀和就业之间风险的相对平衡。就业数据确实表明，就业方面的风险比以往高得多……我一定会仔细观 察的。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns from Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman regarding the potential negative impact of the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates on the labor market [1][2] - Waller and Bowman voted against the Fed's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, both favoring a 25 basis point cut [1] - They emphasized signs of a weakening labor market, contrasting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's description of the labor market as overall solid [1][2] Group 2 - Waller expressed that the cautious approach of waiting may not adequately balance the risks of the outlook and could lead to policy lagging behind the situation [1] - Bowman noted that the vitality of the labor market has diminished and is showing increasingly fragile signs [1][2] - The statements from Waller and Bowman were made shortly before the release of the latest government employment report, which is expected to show slowing job growth and rising unemployment [2] Group 3 - Powell indicated that he expects inflation data to begin reflecting the greater impact of tariffs in the coming months, stressing the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to sustained inflation [3] - Waller mentioned that the impact of tariffs on prices has been minimal so far, and the labor market could deteriorate before clear information on tariffs is available [3] - Bowman warned that delaying action could lead to further deterioration of the labor market and a slowdown in economic growth, advocating for a focus on employment risks as inflation moves towards the 2% target [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that some participants view the risks in the labor market as a primary concern, overshadowing inflation risks [1] - There are signs of weakening in actual economic activity and the labor market, leading to concerns about future economic conditions, especially if restrictive policies continue [1] - Participants agree that despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding inflation and economic outlook, caution is necessary when adjusting monetary policy [1]