她阐述称，实施降息必须建立在充分信心的基础之上。一方面，决策者需要确信通胀确实处于持续下行的轨道。尽管美联储首选的通胀指标在去年徘徊于百 分之三左右，仍高于百分之二的政策目标，但许多分析预测商品通胀压力有望在今年年中缓解。另一方面，降息还需要基于对劳动力市场面临挑战的深切担 忧，且这些挑战可能比当前表面数据所揭示的更为严峻。 旧金山联邦储备银行总裁玛丽·戴利近日公开表示，鉴于美国劳动力市场呈现疲软迹象，美联储未来可能有必要进行一到两次额外的降息。她指出，当前工 人们正面临实际工资被物价上涨侵蚀以及新就业机会稀缺的双重压力。 戴利是在美联储公开市场委上周决定将基准利率维持在百分之三点五至三点七五区间后首次接受媒体访问。她明确支持这一维持利率不变的决定，但同时强 调，在利率政策上必须保持"非常开放的心态"。她认为，存在支持进一步降息的合理理由，但采取行动前需要满足明确的条件。 布米普特拉北京投资基金分析师认为，戴利个人倾向于支持进一步降低利率，至于具体是一次还是两次，她表示难以断言。作为今年联邦公开市场委的无投 票权成员，戴利仍将参与所有的定期政策讨论，其观点反映了美联储内部对经济平衡风险的持续评估。 目前美国失 ...

记者丨 李依农 技术将对经济产生变革性影响 编辑丨李莹亮 和佳 2026年伊始，全球经济正回归长期潜在增长轨道，信贷逐步修复，市场信心边际回升。瑞银全 球经济和策略研究主管卡普顿（Arend Kapteyn）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，在利差收 窄、汇率波动有限且市场流动性充足的背景下，股票仍是最具优势的资产类别，美股今年预计 可涨约10%，欧洲与日本市场也有望录得约8%的涨幅。 他对中国经济保持乐观：新兴经济部门已贡献约四分之一的增长，是推动整体经济的重要动 力。他建议投资者在新兴市场中重点关注中国与巴西，这不仅可获取AI相关敞口，也兼顾估值 与盈利增长优势。 同时，他提醒，投资者仍需关注美国潜在的财政刺激、劳动力市场结构性风险以及整体不确定 性，这些因素可能成为全球市场的主要风险；相比之下，地缘政治因素虽然难以预测，但对金 融市场的直接冲击或相对有限。 卡普顿。资料图 中国在全球新经济领域领先 南方财经： 我们把目光转向中国。怎么看中国经济前景？未来推动经济增长的主要动 力会来自哪些方面？ 卡普顿： 现在还处在年初阶段，我们的预测通常还会经历多次调整。 我们认为，新兴经济部门对整体经济增长的贡献，已经接 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate moderate GDP growth in the U.S., a cooling labor market, and steady economic activity, with a lower-than-expected average growth rate for the first three quarters of the year [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and the CES event are key focuses for the week [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 were reported at 199,000, the lowest since November 29, against an expectation of 220,000 [2] - Japan's central bank indicated a need for potential adjustments to monetary easing, with several policymakers advocating for continued interest rate hikes [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1%, marking its first expansion since April [2] Group 2: Upcoming Events - January 5: U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI [3] - January 6: The 2026 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas [3] - January 7: U.S. December ADP employment numbers [3] - January 8: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 [3] - January 9: U.S. December unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll figures [3]

Core Insights - Silver prices surged over 110% in 2025, marking the largest increase in over a decade, driven by a combination of factors including a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical risks, tightening silver inventories, and increased industrial demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent focus has shifted to economic data following the Federal Reserve's confirmation of interest rate cuts, with initial jobless claims rising to 236,000, the largest increase in nearly four and a half years, raising concerns about labor market weakness and further pressuring the dollar [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary survey indicated that most respondents expect an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, reflecting declining consumer confidence [1] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September to its smallest level since mid-2020, with a nearly 11% reduction in the goods and services trade deficit to $52.8 billion, aiding economists in refining GDP estimates for the third quarter [1] Group 2: Employment Data Impact - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to be a significant market driver, with Powell highlighting risks in the labor market, suggesting that any unexpected weakness in employment data could bolster silver prices further [2] - Conversely, if employment remains resilient, the dollar may strengthen, potentially putting downward pressure on silver prices [2] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The current trading range for silver indicates that a breakthrough above the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level at $63.85 could shift focus to the psychological level of $65.00 [3] - Support for silver is found at $61.50, with further targets at the December 10 low of $60.00 and the December 5 high of $59.35 if it falls below this support level [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized risks in the labor market while downplaying inflation concerns, leading to the worst performance of the dollar in nearly three months [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points [1] - Powell's comments on the labor market were less optimistic compared to previous forecasts, contributing to the dollar's decline [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The dollar index closed down 0.4%, marking the largest drop since September 16 [1] - Macro strategist Edward Harrison noted that the weak dollar should receive guidance from bond and interest rate differentials as the Fed's stance diverges from increasingly hawkish central banks worldwide [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that several Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly and Christopher Waller, support a rate cut in December, citing risks in the labor market that outweigh inflation concerns [1][7][8] - Mary Daly warns of a "non-linear" deterioration in the labor market, indicating that managing sudden changes in employment is more challenging than addressing inflation [7] - The market has reacted swiftly, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising from approximately 40% to 80% following the dovish statements from Fed officials [2][10] Group 2 - The complexity of the upcoming decision is highlighted by the government shutdown, which has delayed key employment data releases for October and November, leaving officials to make judgments with incomplete information [4] - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials, like Susan Collins, advocating for a more cautious approach due to resilient demand potentially exerting upward pressure on inflation [9] - The financial markets have adjusted their expectations significantly, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping sharply and the ten-year yield reaching its lowest point this month [2][12]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly and John Williams, support a rate cut in December, emphasizing that risks to the labor market have surpassed inflation threats [1][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warns of "non-linear" deterioration risks in the labor market, advocating for a rate cut as managing employment issues is more challenging than addressing inflation [3][7] - New York Fed President John Williams echoes this sentiment, highlighting increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, suggesting room for further rate cuts in the near term [7][8] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller also supports a December rate cut and a more flexible policy approach starting in 2026, noting that tariff-related cost pressures are milder than expected [4][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, market expectations for a rate cut surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from approximately 40% to 80% [4][11] - The U.S. Treasury market reacted positively, with the ten-year Treasury yield dropping to a monthly low of 4.03% [11][13] - Technical factors, such as anticipated monthly index rebalancing and strong demand in recent Treasury auctions, also supported the bond market [13] Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The upcoming December meeting will occur without key employment data for October and November due to government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [6] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some officials advocating for a cautious approach, reflecting the real-world uncertainties rather than groupthink [9] - Daly describes the December decision as a "test of judgment," weighing the risks of action versus inaction, and emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy flexibility [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from influential Federal Reserve officials indicate a strong support for a potential interest rate cut in December, emphasizing the risks in the labor market outweighing inflation concerns [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned of "non-linear" deterioration risks in the labor market and supports a rate cut, stating that managing sudden labor market declines is more challenging than addressing inflation rebounds [1][4]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller also expressed support for a December rate cut and suggested adopting a more flexible policy starting in 2026 [4]. - New York Fed President John Williams highlighted the increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, suggesting that there is still room for further rate cuts in the near term [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surged from approximately 40% to 80% in the interest rate swap market [1][6]. - U.S. Treasury yields reacted positively, with the two-year Treasury yield significantly declining over the past two trading days, and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest point this month [1][6]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 will occur without key employment data for October and November due to government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [3]. - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocating for a more cautious approach, suggesting that a "moderate or slightly tight" policy stance remains appropriate [5]. Group 4: Technical Factors Supporting Bond Market - In addition to rate cut expectations, technical factors are also providing support to the bond market, with expectations of a monthly index rebalancing driving large funds to buy long-term bonds [8]. - A strong demand was observed in the recent $69 billion two-year Treasury auction, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching its highest in three months [8].

Core Viewpoint - Several influential Federal Reserve officials are advocating for a rate cut in December, emphasizing that risks to the labor market outweigh inflation concerns, which has led to heightened expectations for monetary easing [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports a rate cut, warning of a "non-linear" deterioration in the labor market, which she considers more challenging to manage than inflation [1][4]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller also expressed support for a December rate cut, indicating a shift towards more flexible policies starting in 2026 [5]. - New York Fed President John Williams highlighted the increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, suggesting that there is still room for further rate cuts in the near term [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surged from approximately 40% to 80% in the interest rate swap market [1][8]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping significantly over the past two trading days, and the ten-year yield reaching its lowest point of the month [1][8]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 will occur without key employment data for October and November due to government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain evident, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocating for a more cautious approach, suggesting that a "moderate or slightly tight" policy stance is still appropriate [6]. - Daly characterized the December decision as a "test of judgment," weighing the risks of inaction against the risks of action, asserting that the risks of not acting are higher [6].

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, citing a greater risk of sudden deterioration in the labor market compared to inflation management [1]. Group 1: Labor Market Risks - Daly emphasizes that the current balance of "few hires and few layoffs" in the economy is becoming increasingly fragile, and any additional layoffs or lower-than-expected output growth could significantly weaken the labor market [2]. - She believes that the Fed can bring inflation back to the 2% target without increasing the unemployment rate, despite the current inflation rate hovering around 3% [2]. - The focus of policy considerations has shifted towards the labor market, indicating that preventing sudden labor market deterioration is now a top priority [2]. Group 2: Internal Committee Disagreements - Daly responds to concerns from some Fed officials about the risks of premature rate cuts potentially limiting future policy options, arguing that the Fed should not refrain from cutting rates now due to fears of needing to reverse policy later [3]. - She highlights the unusual level of disagreement among Fed officials as a reflection of real-world uncertainties, stating that consensus is not the goal of their responsibilities [4]. - Daly describes the upcoming decision as a "test of judgment," weighing the risks of inaction against the risks of action, suggesting that she perceives the risks of cutting rates as lower than others do [4].