人民财讯1月16日电，中金展望2026年，预计上半年金融总量增速可能继续放缓。2025年前三季度，受 政府债规模扩大且发行前置、2024年基数偏低等因素影响，社融、M1、M2增速明显改善，已经形成了 较高基数。展望2026年的流动性环境，财政政策方面，2026年财政政策或更加强调质效而非总量再度明 显加码，预计2026年广义财政赤字率可能不会大幅上行，政府债发行虽大概率仍然前置，但规模同比增 幅或较2025年放缓。货币政策方面，央行货币政策委员会四季度例会通稿大体延续了淡化对金融总量诉 求的基调，利率衍生品市场隐含的降息预期也已经较2025年初的水平显著回调。 ...

Core Points - President Trump appointed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling a vacancy left by former member Adriana Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Miran has a strong academic background with a PhD in economics from Harvard and has experience in both the private sector and federal government, making him a key figure in shaping economic policy [1] - Trump's administration is actively seeking to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections [1][5] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Board consists of 7 members who directly influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, which include evaluating economic conditions to adjust interest rates [1] - Miran has previously criticized the large-scale fiscal stimulus policies favored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [2] - Trump has been pressuring Powell to resign due to dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest rate policies, aiming to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs and government debt [5] Group 2 - Powell's term ends in May 2026, and he has faced significant pressure from Trump but remains committed to his position [6] - Trump is interviewing three candidates for potential replacements for Powell, all of whom align with his ideological views, suggesting a more dovish approach to monetary policy in the future [7] - The upcoming FOMC meetings on September 16, October 28, and December 9 will be crucial in determining the future monetary policy stance, which may impact global capital confidence [7]