钛媒体App 11月15日消息，美联储理事米兰认为，最新数据已经为美联储进一步降息提供了充分理由。 米兰表示，自9月政策会议以来，"我们得到的所有数据都指向鸽派"，无论是通胀还是就业，都走弱到 支持进一步宽松的程度。他指出，通胀数据低于预期，核心压力持续缓解，劳动力市场也在放缓，这些 都意味着央行应更倾向继续降息，而不是保持观望态度。他强调，在是否继续降息的问题上，"所有这 些数据都应让我们更鸽派，而不是相反"。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is approaching the critical 155 level against the US dollar, raising speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, but major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America believe immediate intervention is unlikely as current conditions do not meet the usual criteria for action [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yen depreciated approximately 4% against the dollar in October, making it the worst-performing currency among G-10 currencies [1]. - As of Tuesday, the yen fell further to 154.48, driven by market interpretations of Prime Minister Kishida's inclination towards fiscal expansion and dovish monetary policy [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggest that the yen's recent weakness is primarily due to the repricing of Japan's fiscal risk premium and adjustments in short-term interest rate expectations [4]. Group 2: Intervention Triggers - Goldman Sachs indicates that intervention likelihood will significantly increase only when the USD/JPY exchange rate reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America suggests a meaningful policy response may occur if the rate tests 158 [1][4]. - Historical context shows that the last intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance occurred in 2024, with intervention levels around 157.99 to 161.76 [4]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Bank of America maintains a year-end forecast of 155 for the exchange rate but notes an increased risk of the rate overshooting to 160 by Q4 2025 [5]. - Goldman Sachs expects the yen to gradually appreciate as hedging costs decrease and the dollar weakens, with potential acceleration if US labor market data worsens [6]. - However, there are warnings that unexpected fiscal stimulus measures from Japan or stronger-than-expected US economic performance could undermine expectations for yen appreciation [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the key conditions for intervention in the foreign exchange market have not yet been met, despite the rising USD/JPY exchange rate approaching 155 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In October, the USD/JPY increased by approximately 4%, making the yen the worst-performing major currency among G-10 currencies [4]. - The recent poor performance of the yen is primarily driven by Japan's fiscal risk premium and the repricing of short-term interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [2][4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Actions - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over the rapid and unilateral movements in the foreign exchange market, with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stating that they are closely monitoring the situation with a sense of urgency [4]. - The last intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance occurred in 2024 at USD/JPY levels of approximately 157.99, 159.45, 160.17, and 161.76 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the yen will gradually appreciate in the long term as hedging costs decrease and the USD weakens, although this trend could accelerate if U.S. labor market data deteriorates [5]. - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that the USD/JPY may test the 158 level before triggering substantial policy responses, maintaining a year-end forecast of 155 while noting an increased risk of reaching 160 by Q4 2025 [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar has corrected higher despite dovish signals, indicating a market reaction to profit-taking by short sellers [1] - The market is anticipating new narratives and drivers for price action as the likelihood of three interest rate declines in 2025 is already priced in [1][4] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but GDP growth data for Q3 is not yet available, making recession predictions difficult [2] Group 2 - The 10-2 spread remains above zero, indicating a balanced situation, while the US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 since February, signaling weakness [3] - Despite weak signals, US stocks have performed steadily, with indices reaching new all-time highs alongside Gold [3] - The upcoming PCE index publication on September 25th is crucial for assessing inflation and interest rate stability [4] Group 3 - The official beginning of the interest rate decline cycle in the US may lead to speculation around selling the US dollar coming to an end [5] - Stronger-than-expected inflation data could lead to a rebound in EUR/USD and other USD-related pairs, while failure to break resistance may indicate Euro weakness against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets opened higher, with the German DAX index rising over 1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 index increasing nearly 1% [1] - U.S. stock index futures also saw an uptick, with the S&P 500 futures up by 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is perceived as not overly dovish, yet it still provides some benefits for risk assets [1] Market Performance - The French, Spanish, and Italian stock markets also showed positive performance, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in Europe [1] - The typical market behavior of dip buyers is noted, as they tend to steer market narratives in their favor [1] Economic Outlook - The focus is on U.S. economic data, which needs to validate that the dovish market pricing for October and December is incorrect [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank predicts that due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, gold will continue its record-breaking rally, with an average price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026, up from a previous estimate of $3,700 [1] - The report indicates that central bank gold purchases could reach 900 tons next year, primarily from China, and that the likelihood of further gold price increases outweighs the possibility of a correction to fair value [1][2] - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% this year, recently surpassing the inflation-adjusted record high set in 1980, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's recent attacks on the Federal Reserve have heightened market anxiety, with expectations for a more dovish monetary policy supporting non-yielding gold [2] - Deutsche Bank's latest forecasts do not account for potential risks to Federal Reserve independence, although changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership could introduce uncertainty in policy responses [2] - Goldman Sachs indicated that if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, gold prices could potentially soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce with even a small shift in investor holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 silver price target from $40 to $45 per ounce, citing a fifth consecutive year of physical supply shortages for silver [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new high, driven by investor expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and considerations of further monetary policy easing in the coming months [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 16, gold prices briefly surpassed the previous day's record high of approximately $3,685 per ounce, supported by a decline in the dollar index to a seven-week low [1] - As of 9:01 AM Singapore time, gold prices increased by 0.2% to $3,686.39 [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut this week, but investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly economic and interest rate forecasts, along with Chairman Powell's press conference [1] - A series of weak labor market data and the absence of significant inflation surprises have enhanced the outlook for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which is favorable for gold [1] Group 3: Political Pressure - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Cook, which has reinforced market bets on a more dovish monetary policy [1] - The confirmation of Trump's economic advisor Stephen Moore as a Federal Reserve Governor coincides with this monetary policy meeting [1]

Group 1 - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, potentially allowing him to appoint a more dovish candidate, which could lead to greater control over the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with the dollar weakening across the board, short-term Treasury yields declining, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin gaining popularity [1][3] - Analysts express concerns that this action undermines trust in the Federal Reserve as an independent institution, which may pose long-term challenges to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [2][4] Group 2 - The expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve following Cook's dismissal is likely to increase the prospects of interest rate cuts, further pressuring the dollar [3][4] - The demand for gold, yen, and Bitcoin is rising as investors seek to hedge against the potential long-term implications of diminished Federal Reserve independence [4][5] - Despite the market's initial reaction, analysts believe that the potential risks have not been fully priced in, indicating high uncertainty for the future [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with Christopher Waller currently seen as the frontrunner. Analysts suggest that regardless of who is selected, the Fed is likely to adopt a more dovish stance [1][2]. Candidate Overview - The list of candidates for the next Fed chair has expanded from four to around ten, including notable figures such as Christopher Waller, James Bullard, Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett, Mark Sulzman, and Kevin Warsh. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessenet, is leading the selection process and has expressed a strong impression of Waller after his interview [1][4]. - Waller, who has been a Fed governor since December 2020, is viewed as a suitable candidate due to his willingness to adjust policies based on future economic predictions rather than current data [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Waller's monetary policy stance is considered dovish, having supported a 25 basis point rate cut in July. He advocates for quicker policy easing to stimulate the economy as long as inflation risks are manageable [5][6]. - Other candidates also show support for rate cuts, with Hassett criticizing the Fed for slow rate reductions and Warsh and Bullard shifting from hawkish to dovish positions recently [5][6]. Candidate Profiles - **Christopher Waller (65 years)**: Supports rate cuts and focuses on potential inflation excluding tariff impacts. He is seen as a leading candidate due to his understanding of the Fed's system [6]. - **Kevin Warsh (55 years)**: Previously hawkish, now supports rate cuts and advocates for coordination between the Fed and Treasury on national debt management [6]. - **Kevin Hassett (63 years)**: Critiques the Fed's slow rate cuts and has a close relationship with Trump, favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus [6]. - **Stephen Moore (42 years)**: Known for advocating for tax cuts and deregulation, he supports structural reforms in the Fed [6]. - **James Bullard (64 years)**: Historically a hawk, he has recently indicated a willingness to support rate cuts [6]. - **Mark Sulzman (55 years)**: His recent views are unclear, but he has a background in coordinating economic policies during the Bush administration [6]. Implications of New Appointments - The nomination of Stephen Moore by Trump to fill a vacancy at the Fed could further strengthen the dovish faction within the Fed, although it may not significantly impact recent monetary policy decisions [7][8]. - Analysts believe that Moore's potential influence on the Fed's decision-making will depend on the economic conditions at the time of his confirmation [8].

Group 1 - The proposed taxation may negatively impact the profit margins of chip manufacturers and set a precedent for Washington to impose taxes on key U.S. export products, potentially extending beyond semiconductors [1] - The agreement allowing semiconductor sales to China is a critical topic in the deal signed earlier this year between Washington and Beijing, which is set to expire on Tuesday [1] - Investors are focusing on economic data as the earnings season concludes, looking for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September [1] Group 2 - There are expectations that recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and signs of a weak job market may lead to a dovish monetary policy stance later this year, contributing to a sense of optimism [1] - The consumer inflation report for July is set to be released on Tuesday, with investors anticipating a reduction in borrowing costs by approximately 60 basis points before December [1] - Other financial indicators show a slight increase in bonds and the dollar, while gold futures have reduced losses after Trump stated that gold imports would not face U.S. tariffs [1]