Interestingly, despite the dovish signal, the US dollar had corrected higher, pushing other asset prices slightly lower. That represents the old trading adage: “buy the rumours, sell the news”. In this case, inflated expectations about dovish monetary policy had brought a lot of short sellers of the US dollar to the market, which now tend to fix their profits.Now, as the odds of 3 steps of decline for the interest rate in 2025 are already stacked, theThe market looks forward to trying to find new narratives ...

格隆汇9月18日｜欧股普遍高开，德国DAX指数涨超1%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨近1%，法国、西班牙、 意大利股市纷纷飘红。与此同时，美国股指期货也上涨，标普500指数期货涨0.5%。知名财经网站 Investinglive评论称，美联储周三的利率决定并没有太过鸽派，但总的来说，它对风险资产而言仍有一 点好处。就股市而言，通常的情况是，逢低买入者会以这样或那样的方式将市场叙述向有利于自己的方 向发展。目前，关键在于美国数据需要证明10月和12月的鸽派市场定价是错误的。 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank predicts that due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, gold will continue its record-breaking rally, with an average price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026, up from a previous estimate of $3,700 [1] - The report indicates that central bank gold purchases could reach 900 tons next year, primarily from China, and that the likelihood of further gold price increases outweighs the possibility of a correction to fair value [1][2] - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% this year, recently surpassing the inflation-adjusted record high set in 1980, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's recent attacks on the Federal Reserve have heightened market anxiety, with expectations for a more dovish monetary policy supporting non-yielding gold [2] - Deutsche Bank's latest forecasts do not account for potential risks to Federal Reserve independence, although changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership could introduce uncertainty in policy responses [2] - Goldman Sachs indicated that if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, gold prices could potentially soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce with even a small shift in investor holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 silver price target from $40 to $45 per ounce, citing a fifth consecutive year of physical supply shortages for silver [3]

美国总统特朗普对美联储的施压不断升级，包括试图罢免美联储理事库克的行动，也强化了市场对更鸽 派货币政策的押注。此外，特朗普经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事的提名获参议院确认，可赶上 本次议息会议。 新加坡时间9:01，金价涨0.2%至3,686.39美元。彭博美元即期指数持稳。 金价9月16日一度突破前一日创下的约每盎司3685美元的纪录高点，一项美元指数跌至逾七周低位也给 金价带来支撑。尽管本周降息预期已在市场价格中得到体现，但投资者还将关注美联储发布的最新季度 经济和利率预测及主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。 一系列疲软的劳动力市场数据，加上未出现重大通胀意外，提升了美联储今年进一步降息的前景。这对 黄金构成利好。 来源：商业周刊 金价再创新高，投资者押注美联储本周将降息，并权衡未来几个月进一步放松货币政策的空间。 ...

Group 1 - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, potentially allowing him to appoint a more dovish candidate, which could lead to greater control over the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with the dollar weakening across the board, short-term Treasury yields declining, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin gaining popularity [1][3] - Analysts express concerns that this action undermines trust in the Federal Reserve as an independent institution, which may pose long-term challenges to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [2][4] Group 2 - The expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve following Cook's dismissal is likely to increase the prospects of interest rate cuts, further pressuring the dollar [3][4] - The demand for gold, yen, and Bitcoin is rising as investors seek to hedge against the potential long-term implications of diminished Federal Reserve independence [4][5] - Despite the market's initial reaction, analysts believe that the potential risks have not been fully priced in, indicating high uncertainty for the future [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with Christopher Waller currently seen as the frontrunner. Analysts suggest that regardless of who is selected, the Fed is likely to adopt a more dovish stance [1][2]. Candidate Overview - The list of candidates for the next Fed chair has expanded from four to around ten, including notable figures such as Christopher Waller, James Bullard, Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett, Mark Sulzman, and Kevin Warsh. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessenet, is leading the selection process and has expressed a strong impression of Waller after his interview [1][4]. - Waller, who has been a Fed governor since December 2020, is viewed as a suitable candidate due to his willingness to adjust policies based on future economic predictions rather than current data [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Waller's monetary policy stance is considered dovish, having supported a 25 basis point rate cut in July. He advocates for quicker policy easing to stimulate the economy as long as inflation risks are manageable [5][6]. - Other candidates also show support for rate cuts, with Hassett criticizing the Fed for slow rate reductions and Warsh and Bullard shifting from hawkish to dovish positions recently [5][6]. Candidate Profiles - **Christopher Waller (65 years)**: Supports rate cuts and focuses on potential inflation excluding tariff impacts. He is seen as a leading candidate due to his understanding of the Fed's system [6]. - **Kevin Warsh (55 years)**: Previously hawkish, now supports rate cuts and advocates for coordination between the Fed and Treasury on national debt management [6]. - **Kevin Hassett (63 years)**: Critiques the Fed's slow rate cuts and has a close relationship with Trump, favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus [6]. - **Stephen Moore (42 years)**: Known for advocating for tax cuts and deregulation, he supports structural reforms in the Fed [6]. - **James Bullard (64 years)**: Historically a hawk, he has recently indicated a willingness to support rate cuts [6]. - **Mark Sulzman (55 years)**: His recent views are unclear, but he has a background in coordinating economic policies during the Bush administration [6]. Implications of New Appointments - The nomination of Stephen Moore by Trump to fill a vacancy at the Fed could further strengthen the dovish faction within the Fed, although it may not significantly impact recent monetary policy decisions [7][8]. - Analysts believe that Moore's potential influence on the Fed's decision-making will depend on the economic conditions at the time of his confirmation [8].

Group 1 - The proposed taxation may negatively impact the profit margins of chip manufacturers and set a precedent for Washington to impose taxes on key U.S. export products, potentially extending beyond semiconductors [1] - The agreement allowing semiconductor sales to China is a critical topic in the deal signed earlier this year between Washington and Beijing, which is set to expire on Tuesday [1] - Investors are focusing on economic data as the earnings season concludes, looking for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September [1] Group 2 - There are expectations that recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and signs of a weak job market may lead to a dovish monetary policy stance later this year, contributing to a sense of optimism [1] - The consumer inflation report for July is set to be released on Tuesday, with investors anticipating a reduction in borrowing costs by approximately 60 basis points before December [1] - Other financial indicators show a slight increase in bonds and the dollar, while gold futures have reduced losses after Trump stated that gold imports would not face U.S. tariffs [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Signals - The Federal Reserve is hinting at a potential "soft landing" with possible interest rate cuts, contrasting sharply with the surge in gold prices, indicating market anxiety about economic stability [2][4] - The appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve is seen as a temporary measure, while the real power struggle involves Waller eyeing Powell's position, which could lead to significant market shifts by year-end [3] - The labor market data shows a rise in initial jobless claims and a peak in continuing claims, suggesting a weakening job market and economic uncertainty [4] Group 2: Trade Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's proposed 100% tariffs on semiconductors are perceived as a strategic move to encourage domestic manufacturing rather than a straightforward economic threat [5] - The tariffs are expected to prompt major companies like TSMC and Samsung to consider building factories in the U.S. to avoid these tariffs, potentially reshaping the semiconductor supply chain [5] - The recent imposition of tariffs on gold imports has led to a dramatic price increase, indicating that gold is becoming a geopolitical asset rather than just a hedge against inflation [6][7] Group 3: Currency and Economic Outlook - The U.S. dollar index is fluctuating around 98.0, reflecting uncertainty in the market as it awaits upcoming economic data, with expectations leaning towards a downward trend [4][8] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, weak labor market signals, and trade policy changes is creating a complex environment that could lead to significant market volatility [8]

Core Points - President Trump appointed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling a vacancy left by former member Adriana Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Miran has a strong academic background with a PhD in economics from Harvard and has experience in both the private sector and federal government, making him a key figure in shaping economic policy [1] - Trump's administration is actively seeking to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections [1][5] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Board consists of 7 members who directly influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, which include evaluating economic conditions to adjust interest rates [1] - Miran has previously criticized the large-scale fiscal stimulus policies favored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [2] - Trump has been pressuring Powell to resign due to dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest rate policies, aiming to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs and government debt [5] Group 2 - Powell's term ends in May 2026, and he has faced significant pressure from Trump but remains committed to his position [6] - Trump is interviewing three candidates for potential replacements for Powell, all of whom align with his ideological views, suggesting a more dovish approach to monetary policy in the future [7] - The upcoming FOMC meetings on September 16, October 28, and December 9 will be crucial in determining the future monetary policy stance, which may impact global capital confidence [7]

Core Viewpoint - The timing for interest rate cuts may be approaching as concerns about the labor market risks are increasing, while inflation from tariffs is not seen as a significant issue [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Bowman supports considering a reduction in policy rates as early as the next meeting to bring rates closer to neutral and maintain a healthy labor market [2]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its overnight target rate range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the last meeting, amid economic uncertainty caused by trade policies [2]. - Bowman expressed optimism about the economic outlook, suggesting that the future economic clouds are becoming clearer [2]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market is currently in good shape, but there are growing concerns about its future prospects, which contributes to a dovish monetary policy stance [3]. - Bowman noted that any upward pressure on prices from higher tariffs is being offset by other factors, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation trend is closer to the 2% target than current data suggests [3].