Group 1: Core Insights - The current bottom line for the net interest margin (NIM) of major banks is approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating limited room for further significant declines [1][6][84] - Maintaining a reasonable level of NIM is essential for economic growth and financial stability, as it relates to capital balance, breakeven points, and risk pricing mechanisms [6][20][21] Group 2: NIM Bottom Line Calculation - The projected nominal GDP growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 6.0% and 6.9%, which necessitates an M2 growth rate of about 7.0% to 8.0% [1][23][28] - The bottom line for NIM is calculated based on a required return on equity (ROE) of 7% to 8%, leading to a NIM bottom line of approximately 1.2% to 1.3% [36][84] Group 3: 2026 NIM Projections - If the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) and deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps in 2026 [2][85] - Without considering further interest rate cuts, the model predicts a decrease in loan rates by about 24 bps and deposit rates by 14 to 17 bps, resulting in a net interest margin contraction of about 2 to 5 bps [2][39][59] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to be characterized by a "reasonable and ample" approach, with a likely LPR decrease of 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [3][86] - The central bank's strategy will focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting economic growth while maintaining the health of the banking system [60][61] Group 5: Economic Recovery and Regulatory Impact - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, and regulatory changes could temporarily impact the banking sector's fundamentals [4][80] - The banking sector is under strong regulatory oversight, and any adverse policies could affect short-term valuations [80]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月05日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：价格篇 优于大市 货币政策相机抉择，净息差下降尾声 目前大行净息差底线水平约 1.2%~1.3%，已在底线附近。（1）净息差底线思 维的必要性：从资本平衡、盈亏平衡以及风险定价机制等角度而言，净息差 维持一个合理水平是守住经济增长和金融稳定必要条件。（2）大行净息差 底线测算：首先，确定经济增速目标以及对应的银行业总资产增速。预计"十 五五"期间名义 GDP 增速为 6.0%~6.9%，对应的 M2 增速需要维持在约 7.0%~8.0%；根据 M2 派生方式，银行业总资产扩张速度约 6.0%~7.0%。然后， 资本角度测算，大行 ROE 底线约 7%~8%，据此测算净息差底线约 1.2%~1.3%。 若 LPR 下降 10bps，存款利率不调降，2026 年净息差同比下降约 5~8bps。 （1）首先，不考虑 LPR 继续下降，模型测算结果显示，2026 年贷款利 率下降约 24bps，存款利率下降约 14~17bps，对应的存贷业务拖累净息 差下降约 2~5bps。（2）不过我们判断 2026 年 LPR 大概率下降 10bps， 存款 ...