Nordea Bank Q1 2026 Pre-Close Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Nordea Bank (OTCPK:NBNK.F) - **Event**: Q1 2026 pre-close call - **Date**: March 31, 2026 Key Industry and Company Insights Macro Environment - Significant volatility in financial markets due to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, impacting interest rates and market making activities [2][3] - Recent sharp moves in interest rates have been against consensus positioning, leading to potential losses in trading [2] Financial Performance Indicators - **Interest Rates**: No changes in Nordic policy rates; three-month STIBOR increased by 9 basis points quarter-on-quarter [4] - **Equity Markets**: US dollar-denominated MSCI World Index increased by 2%, while OMX Nordic 40 rose by 8% [4] - **Fixed Income**: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index increased by 0.7% [4] - **Foreign Exchange (FX)**: SEK and NOK appreciated against the euro, with SEK up 2% and NOK up 3% quarter-on-quarter, providing a tailwind for euro-denominated income [5] Net Interest Income (NII) - Q4 NII reported at EUR 1,765 million; Q1 NII expected to decline due to lower day count, estimated impact of EUR 40 million [5] - Lending volumes grew strongly, contributing EUR 11 million to NII, but lending margin pressure resulted in a negative impact of EUR 31 million [6] - NII is expected to grow in line with volume and margin developments in the medium term [7] Net Fee and Commission Income - Q4 net fee and commission income was EUR 853 million, with a decline expected in Q1 due to lower day count and absence of annual fees [9] - Slightly positive market performance effect on average AUM despite declines in relevant indices in March [9] Net Fair Value - Expected to be within the normal quarterly range of EUR 200 million to EUR 250 million for Q1, likely around the midpoint due to market volatility [11][12] Costs and Restructuring - Restructuring costs of EUR 190 million to be booked in Q1, with gradual benefits expected in 2026 and 2027 [12][49] - Full-year resolution fee expected to be higher than average due to booking in Q1 [12] Credit Quality - Strong credit quality with loan loss level at 7 basis points in Q4; no significant direct impacts expected from current geopolitical situations [13] Capital and Dividends - CET1 ratio at 15.7% with a requirement of 13.8% [13] - Dividend policy to pay out 60%-70% of annual profits; semi-annual dividends approved by shareholders [14] Changes in Reporting - AUM reporting will be adjusted to better align with savings fees development, breaking down into investment product AUM and other assets [15][16] Additional Insights - The geopolitical situation may affect lending volumes and margins, with expectations of continued pressure on funding costs [6][7] - The impact of the recent increase in STIBOR on funding costs is expected to be minimal [69] - The weighting of IFRS9 scenarios is 20% adverse, 60% baseline, and 20% upside [69] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Nordea Bank Q1 2026 pre-close call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment, financial performance, and strategic outlook for the company.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][41]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.65 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.13 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year [1][14]. - The company benefits from the growing credit demand in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and has a competitive advantage in reaching retail customers through a wide network of branches [4][41]. - The company is expected to see net profit growth of 5.8%, 7.2%, and 8.0% from 2026 to 2028 [4][41]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's net interest income supported revenue growth, with a net interest margin of 1.6% in 2025, a decrease of 1 basis point year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to earlier in the year [3][24]. - The company reported a quarterly revenue of 6.991 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [14]. Loan and Asset Growth - As of the end of 2025, the total customer loans and advances amounted to 797.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [2][21]. - The company has leveraged its regional advantages to support growth in public loans, particularly in infrastructure projects, with loans in the leasing and business services sector growing by 19.4% year-on-year [2][21]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The company’s interest income from earning assets was under pressure, with a yield of 3.06%, down 31 basis points year-on-year [3][24]. - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased to 1.55%, down 31 basis points year-on-year, contributing to the optimization of the interest margin [3][24]. Non-Interest Income - The company faced challenges in non-interest income, with net fee and commission income declining by 19.7% year-on-year due to market rate fluctuations [31][32]. - Other non-interest income also decreased significantly, primarily due to high base effects and market volatility [31][32]. Asset Quality - The company maintained a stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, down 10 basis points year-on-year [33][35]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 367.26%, indicating a solid risk mitigation capacity [38][39]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.2091 yuan per 10 shares, maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio of 30.05% [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Bank is "Buy" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - Qingdao Bank's performance continues to show strong growth, with significant improvements in asset quality and robust credit momentum [5][3] - The bank's net profit for 2025 is projected to grow by 21.66% year-on-year, reaching 5,188 million yuan, while revenue is expected to increase by 8.53% to 14,546 million yuan [3][5] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has improved significantly to 0.97%, down 13 basis points from the previous period, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [5][19] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A Revenue: 13,403 million yuan, 2025A Revenue: 14,546 million yuan, 2026E Revenue: 15,707 million yuan [3] - 2024A Net Profit: 4,264 million yuan, 2025A Net Profit: 5,188 million yuan, 2026E Net Profit: 6,002 million yuan [3] - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 7.46% for 2024, 8.53% for 2025, and 7.98% for 2026 [3] - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 20.15% for 2024, 21.66% for 2025, and 15.70% for 2026 [3] Asset Quality Summary - The bank's NPL ratio has decreased to 0.97%, with a non-performing loan generation rate of 0.43%, down 9 basis points year-on-year [5][19] - The provision coverage ratio has significantly increased to 292.30%, up 22.30 percentage points from the previous period [19] - The overdue rate has decreased to 1.20%, down 22 basis points from the beginning of the year [5][19] Credit and Deposit Growth - The bank's interest-earning assets are expected to grow by 18.5% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 16.5% [5] - Deposit growth is projected at 19.2% year-on-year, with corporate deposits growing by 18.1% and retail deposits by 14.8% [5] - The structure of credit growth shows that corporate lending remains the main support, with significant increases in government-related lending and manufacturing sectors [5][17] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E are 4.95X, 4.36X, and 5.03X respectively [3] - The projected price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same periods are 0.57X, 0.51X, and 0.46X [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 44.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.7 billion, up 2.3% year-on-year [4][6] - The report highlights the company's strategy of "One Base and Four Arrows" to explore new growth areas, with a focus on increasing retail loan growth and enhancing shareholder returns through a proposed mid-term dividend [6][10] - The company experienced a slight increase in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 0.99% in Q4 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 327% [4][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 4,384.97 million in 2024 to 5,373.30 million by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.31% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,921.70 million in 2024 to 2,260.55 million in 2028, reflecting a growth rate of 5.81% [5] - The report anticipates a stable net interest margin (NIM) of 1.50% for 2025, with a gradual improvement in the cost of liabilities [11] Loan and Deposit Performance - Total loans increased by 7.8% year-on-year to 141.2 billion, with a significant contribution from corporate loans [12] - The company’s total deposits reached 178.1 billion, marking a 9.5% increase year-on-year [12] - The report indicates a strategic reduction in bill financing to optimize interest margins, with corporate loans accounting for 52.9% of total loans by 2025 [9][12] Risk Management and Asset Quality - The report notes a proactive approach to managing retail loan risks, with an increase in the recognition and disposal of risks [10] - The company plans to enhance its risk management framework by incorporating new metrics for assessing loan quality [10] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 4.12 billion, which represents 20.96% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 [6][10] - The introduction of a mid-term dividend is expected to further enhance shareholder value [10]

Core Insights - Bohai Bank reported a total operating income of 25.97 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 488 million yuan, representing a growth rate of 1.92% [1] - The net profit for the year reached 5.50 billion yuan, up by 242 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.61% [1] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 38.01%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage point from the previous year [1] Financial Performance - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of the group amounted to 1,934.41 billion yuan, an increase of 90.57 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 4.91% [1] - The balance of loans and advances was 949.75 billion yuan, with an increase of 24.39 billion yuan, marking a growth rate of 2.64% [1] - Total liabilities reached 1,809.18 billion yuan, an increase of 75.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.35% [1] - Customer deposits amounted to 1,138.78 billion yuan, increasing by 71.21 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 6.67% [1] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance stood at 15.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 559 million yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.66%, down by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The bank's loan loss provisions were adequately maintained, with a total of 25.82 billion yuan in loan impairment provisions, an increase of 243 million yuan [1] - The loan provision coverage ratio was 162.16%, indicating that the asset quality remained stable and met regulatory requirements [1]

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The collapse of "trust" is reshaping the global order, driven by increasing wealth disparity and high debt levels, undermining the foundations of globalization[2] - The decline in USD credit is causing a decoupling of gold from USD interest rates, leading to a return to a multipolar global currency system[2] - A historic long-term bull market for gold is anticipated, as the decline in fiat currency credit enhances the "scarcity" value of physical assets[2] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policy - The macroeconomic focus for 2026 is on "stabilizing prices," with weak domestic demand necessitating increased fiscal support and a continuation of interest rate cuts[2] - The real estate sector has seen an overshoot in volume, but stabilizing housing prices hinges on managing expectations[2] - Recovery in consumer spending is critical, driven by the restoration of household wealth, income, and expectations, with financing growth rates serving as leading indicators of demand[2] Group 3: Asset Allocation Shifts - Residents are experiencing a third "great migration" of wealth, moving from real estate back to "savings+" investments, seeking stable returns while preserving capital[2] - In a low inflation environment, stable assets like deposits, insurance, and wealth management products are favored[2] - The equity market is undergoing valuation recovery after three years of risk pricing, with high dividend strategies and structural opportunities in technology meriting attention[2] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected developments in great power competition, global geopolitical risks, uncertainties in U.S. policy, regulatory changes, and domestic policy measures falling short of expectations[2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking industry [6] Core Insights - The industry is characterized by a clear trend of "leading banks," with state-owned banks acting as a stabilizing force for credit. Regional city commercial banks are achieving differentiation and market share growth, particularly in economically strong provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Shandong. Conversely, smaller financial institutions are facing marginalization and consolidation pressures [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Landscape - The banking industry has returned to a phase dominated by large banks, with state-owned banks' asset share increasing by 4.0 percentage points to 43.3% by the end of 2025. The concentration of the industry is further shifting towards the top players [3][13] - City commercial banks are showing strong regional economic resilience, benefiting from robust credit demand in major economic provinces, with their asset share rising by 0.6 percentage points to 14.0% by the end of 2025 [3][13] - Shareholding banks are generally reducing high-risk business exposure, leading to a decline in market share, with their asset share decreasing by 2.0 percentage points to 16.2% by the end of 2025 [3][13] - Rural financial institutions are undergoing a phase of clearing and consolidation, with significant reductions in the number of institutions since 2025 [3][13] Business Perspective: Deposits and Loans - Deposit market shares for state-owned banks, shareholding banks, sample city commercial banks, and other financial institutions by the end of 2024 are 46.2%, 15.0%, 12.3%, and 26.5%, respectively, with changes of +0.7 percentage points, -0.9 percentage points, +0.8 percentage points, and -0.7 percentage points compared to the end of 2021 [16] - In terms of loans, the market shares for the same categories by the end of 2024 are 46.1%, 17.0%, 12.0%, and 24.9%, with changes of +1.9 percentage points, -2.3 percentage points, +0.6 percentage points, and -0.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2021 [23] Regional Perspective - State-owned banks maintain strong resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region, with market share reaching 36.4% by the end of 2024. Other regions have also seen varying degrees of market share increases, with the Northeast region experiencing the largest increase of 7.7 percentage points to 41.4% [30] - Shareholding banks are experiencing declines in market share across all regions, particularly in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, where shares have decreased by 2.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively [39] - City commercial banks are capitalizing on strong credit demand in major economic provinces, with market shares in Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Shandong increasing by 3.9 percentage points, 3.6 percentage points, and 3.3 percentage points, respectively [44]

Group 1 - The meeting between the chairman of Bank of China and the chairman of TCL focused on deepening comprehensive cooperation, highlighting TCL's role as a representative of advanced manufacturing in China [1][3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 16 goals for national strength, with manufacturing being the top priority, indicating the strategic importance of the manufacturing sector [1][3] - Bank of China aims to leverage its strengths in key areas such as new displays, semiconductor materials, and the photovoltaic industry chain to support TCL's technological breakthroughs and global expansion [1][3] Group 2 - TCL's chairman expressed gratitude for Bank of China's long-term support and discussed TCL's operational status, industry conditions, and future strategic planning [2][4] - TCL is committed to core industries including smart terminals, semiconductor displays, new energy photovoltaics, and semiconductor materials, focusing on enhancing core capabilities and key technologies [2][4] - The collaboration aims to achieve resource sharing and mutual benefits, enhancing core competitiveness to better serve national strategic needs [2][4]

Core Insights - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) has formed a strategic partnership with State Bank of India (SBI) to enhance Japan-India economic ties and support the growth of companies in both countries [1][2] Group 1: MUFG Overview - MUFG has been present in India since 1894, starting with a branch in Mumbai, and currently operates through six locations [2] - The bank provides full banking services primarily for corporate clients, including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions [2] Group 2: SBI Overview - SBI is the largest commercial bank in India, boasting over 23,000 branches and total assets amounting to 71.6 trillion Indian rupees (approximately $770 billion) as of December 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [6] Core Insights - The concept of "deposit migration" is often misunderstood; it refers to the reallocation of existing deposits into other asset types, reflecting changes in residents' asset allocation rather than a significant decrease in total deposits [2][17] - Historical data shows that total deposits in China have consistently increased, from 120 trillion yuan in 2015 to 327 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with household deposits rising from 51 trillion to 166 trillion during the same period [2][16] - The report identifies a structural shift in deposit behavior, with a notable transition from corporate and government deposits to household deposits, and from large banks to small and medium-sized banks [3][21] - The trend of increasing time deposits has begun to slow down since 2025, indicating a potential shift towards a decrease in time deposits, similar to trends observed in Japan [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Characteristics of Deposit Evolution - Domestic deposit balances have shown a consistent upward trend, with periodic fluctuations in growth rates. The structure of deposits has changed significantly, with household deposits increasing their share at the expense of corporate and government deposits [18][25] - The share of deposits held by large banks has decreased from approximately 70% before 2015 to nearly 50% currently, indicating a migration of deposits towards smaller banks [21][25] - The trend of increasing time deposits has slowed down since May 2025, with the proportion of time deposits dropping from 56.4% to 54.7% [21][25] 2. International Comparison of Household Deposits - The report draws parallels between the deposit evolution in China and Japan, noting that both countries have high savings rates and significant reliance on time deposits as a financial asset [34][35] - Japan experienced a long-term trend of deposit de-maturation, with time deposits decreasing significantly due to narrowing interest rate spreads, a phenomenon that may also occur in China [29][30][34] 3. Savings as the Main Driver of Retail Asset Management Growth - The retail asset management industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that by the end of 2026, the net financial assets of residents will reach 26 trillion yuan, closely aligning with the anticipated growth in retail asset management [4][65] - The report forecasts that funds will continue to flow into insurance, wealth management, and public funds, driven by the relatively higher returns compared to traditional deposits [41][50]