本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【11月27日欧洲央行会议纪要：通胀前景评估基本不变，降息周期或结束】11月27日，欧洲央行会议纪 要显示，其对通胀前景评估基本未变。有官员称，除非风险成为现实，当前有利前景或延续，降息周期 已结束。 央行认为，采取稳健策略可增加保持良好状态的机会。从战略角度，货币政策立场不应针对 温和且暂时的通胀波动微调，仅在预期中期重大偏离目标时调整。 多数委员表示，通胀前景风险双 向，前景比以往更不确定。总体而言，等待更多信息的选择价值仍高。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 11.27 21:03:15 脚 欧洲央行:通胀前景评估不变,降息 周期或已经京 【11月27日欧洲央行会议纪要:通胀前景评估基本 不变,降息周期或结束】 11月27日,欧洲央行会议 纪要显示,其对通胀前景评估基本未变。有官员 称,除非风险成为现实,当前有利前景或延续,降 息周期已结束。央行认为,采取稳健策略可增加保 持良好状态的机会。从战略角度,货币政策立场不 应针对温和且暂时的通胀波动微调,仅在预期中期 重大偏离目标 ...

Core Insights - Barclays strategists anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing Treasury securities in February 2024, following indications from key Fed officials about expanding the balance sheet [1] - The expected pace of purchases is projected to be $15 billion per month, starting from March 2024, with an announcement likely in the January meeting [1] - The purchases are aimed at maintaining reserve levels in line with economic growth, rather than indicating a shift in monetary policy stance [1] Summary by Categories Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve is expected to start buying Treasury securities in February 2024 [1] - The anticipated purchase rate is $15 billion per month [1] Market Context - The Fed is currently in a risk management mode due to market concerns regarding repo rates [1] - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and securities portfolio officials suggest a focus on aligning reserves with economic growth [1]

Core Insights - Barclays strategists expect the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing Treasury securities in February next year, following indications from key Fed officials about expanding the balance sheet [1] - The anticipated asset purchases are seen as a risk management strategy rather than a shift in monetary policy stance, with a focus on maintaining reserve levels in line with economic growth [1] Summary by Categories - **Federal Reserve Actions** - The Federal Reserve is likely to announce asset purchases at the January meeting, starting at a pace of $15 billion per month [1] - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and other officials suggest that the purchases aim to align reserves with economic growth [1] - **Market Implications** - The market's attention to repo rates has influenced the Fed's decision-making process, leading to an earlier-than-expected start to asset purchases [1]

Group 1 - The July non-farm payroll report in the U.S. showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below expectations [2] - The revisions for previous months were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [2] Group 2 - The disappointing employment data has raised pressure on the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy stance, with markets adjusting expectations for a potential rate cut in September [3] - Analysts suggest that the labor market is in a "stalling" state, and the Fed may need to lower rates to address the current economic uncertainties [3] - Despite the weak report, some Federal Reserve officials maintain confidence in the current policy decisions, emphasizing that the disappointing data does not necessarily warrant an immediate rate cut [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of quantitative tightening on the European Central Bank's monetary policy stance is limited [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank's current monetary policy remains focused on addressing inflation and economic stability despite the ongoing quantitative tightening measures [1] - The comments from ECB Governing Council member Nagel suggest a cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy in response to market conditions [1] - The overall sentiment indicates that while quantitative tightening is a factor, it does not significantly alter the ECB's strategic direction at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to address "exceptionally high" economic and political uncertainties, with a focus on maintaining inflation around the 2% target and acknowledging downside risks to economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the eurozone's inflation rate is expected to stabilize near the 2% target [1] - The risks to economic growth are still tilted to the downside, indicating a cautious outlook for the eurozone economy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Approach - Lagarde stated that the ECB is in a good position to respond to the uncertain environment at the current interest rate levels [1] - The ECB will adopt a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy stances in light of current uncertainties [1] Group 3: Market Observations - The ECB is closely monitoring fluctuations in the commodity markets [1] - Lagarde noted that the weakness of the US dollar, following President Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs, has provided an opportunity for the euro to enhance its international standing [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will determine an appropriate monetary policy stance in a gradual manner during successive meetings [1] Group 2 - The ECB's approach emphasizes a careful and measured strategy in adjusting monetary policy [1] - This indicates a commitment to closely monitor economic conditions before making policy changes [1] - The statement reflects the ECB's ongoing efforts to navigate economic challenges in the Eurozone [1]