本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月31日美联储会议纪要：通胀与就业风险并存，政策立场引分歧】12月31日，美联储会议纪要显 示，讨论货币政策前景风险因素时，与会者认为通胀上行和就业下行风险均较高，且自2025年中期以来 上升。 多数与会者指出，转向中性政策立场可防劳动力市场恶化，不少人认为关税致持续通胀压力可 能性降低。 但部分与会者指出通胀上升风险或根深蒂固，认为通胀数据高时降政策利率，或被误解为 对2%通胀目标承诺减弱。 ...

长期美国国债下跌，30年期收益率升至自9月初以来最高水平，本周美联储降息后货币政策立场逐步反 映至债市中。30年期收益率一度上涨6个基点至4.86%，创9月5日以来最高水平，本周累计上涨约5个基 点。两年期国债收益率基本持平，较前周略微下跌。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔表示，当克里斯汀·拉加德的任期在不 到两年后结束时，如果有人向她发出邀请，她愿意接任欧洲央行行长一职。在被问及是否认为应由德国 人领导欧洲央行以及她自己是否可能是那个人选时，施纳贝尔在一次采访中表示："若有人向我发出邀 请，我会做好准备。" 目前，该职位的热门人选被认为包括荷兰央行前行长克拉斯·诺特、现任国际清算银行行长的西班牙人 巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德科斯，以及德国央行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔。尽管拉加德的任期将持续到2027年10 月，但随着政界为将于明年5月离职的副行长路易斯·德·金多斯寻找接替者，有关她继任者的讨论正日益 热烈。 这些高层职位的变动是一场大规模改组的一部分，届时六人组成的执行委员会中有三分之二将被替换。 这一微妙且复杂的过程，其核心目标在于维系大国与小国、北方国家与南方国家、鹰派势力与鸽派势力 之间的动态平衡，若能进一步兼顾性别层面的平衡，则更为理想。施纳贝尔和拉加德是欧洲央行管理委 员会中仅有的两位女性，而所有成员国的央行行长目前均为男性，副总统职位的候选人也都是男性。 自1998年欧洲央行成立以来，德国始终占有执委会席位，却从 ...

3 December 2025 | 3:15PM EST Economics Research Pierfrancesco Mei +1(212)902-8809 | pierfrancesco.mei@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 On November 21st n , New York Fed President Williams argued for "a further adjustment [to the funds rate] in the near t ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月1日电印尼央行承诺在促进经济增长的同时优先维护货币稳定。分析师指出，此举有 望在该国资产遭投资者回避之际，为印尼卢比提供支撑。 Gama Asset Management全球宏观投资组合经理Rajeev称，这一承诺是"一个重要的声明"。他指出，尽管 经济增长乏力，央行仍明显加强了对货币稳定的重视，此举被视为对印尼卢比走弱的回应，也标志着其 货币政策立场正从鸽派转向更为审慎。 印尼央行行长Perry Warjiyo表示："展望2026年，在全球不确定性持续高企的背景下，货币政策仍将致 力于平衡稳定与增长。"他补充说，央行将继续通过在境内外市场进行干预，以维护货币稳定。 ...

本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【11月27日欧洲央行会议纪要：通胀前景评估基本不变，降息周期或结束】11月27日，欧洲央行会议纪 要显示，其对通胀前景评估基本未变。有官员称，除非风险成为现实，当前有利前景或延续，降息周期 已结束。 央行认为，采取稳健策略可增加保持良好状态的机会。从战略角度，货币政策立场不应针对 温和且暂时的通胀波动微调，仅在预期中期重大偏离目标时调整。 多数委员表示，通胀前景风险双 向，前景比以往更不确定。总体而言，等待更多信息的选择价值仍高。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 11.27 21:03:15 脚 欧洲央行:通胀前景评估不变,降息 周期或已经京 【11月27日欧洲央行会议纪要:通胀前景评估基本 不变,降息周期或结束】 11月27日,欧洲央行会议 纪要显示,其对通胀前景评估基本未变。有官员 称,除非风险成为现实,当前有利前景或延续,降 息周期已结束。央行认为,采取稳健策略可增加保 持良好状态的机会。从战略角度,货币政策立场不 应针对温和且暂时的通胀波动微调,仅在预期中期 重大偏离目标 ...

Core Insights - Barclays strategists anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing Treasury securities in February 2024, following indications from key Fed officials about expanding the balance sheet [1] - The expected pace of purchases is projected to be $15 billion per month, starting from March 2024, with an announcement likely in the January meeting [1] - The purchases are aimed at maintaining reserve levels in line with economic growth, rather than indicating a shift in monetary policy stance [1] Summary by Categories Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve is expected to start buying Treasury securities in February 2024 [1] - The anticipated purchase rate is $15 billion per month [1] Market Context - The Fed is currently in a risk management mode due to market concerns regarding repo rates [1] - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and securities portfolio officials suggest a focus on aligning reserves with economic growth [1]

Core Insights - Barclays strategists expect the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing Treasury securities in February next year, following indications from key Fed officials about expanding the balance sheet [1] - The anticipated asset purchases are seen as a risk management strategy rather than a shift in monetary policy stance, with a focus on maintaining reserve levels in line with economic growth [1] Summary by Categories - **Federal Reserve Actions** - The Federal Reserve is likely to announce asset purchases at the January meeting, starting at a pace of $15 billion per month [1] - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and other officials suggest that the purchases aim to align reserves with economic growth [1] - **Market Implications** - The market's attention to repo rates has influenced the Fed's decision-making process, leading to an earlier-than-expected start to asset purchases [1]

Group 1 - The July non-farm payroll report in the U.S. showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below expectations [2] - The revisions for previous months were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [2] Group 2 - The disappointing employment data has raised pressure on the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy stance, with markets adjusting expectations for a potential rate cut in September [3] - Analysts suggest that the labor market is in a "stalling" state, and the Fed may need to lower rates to address the current economic uncertainties [3] - Despite the weak report, some Federal Reserve officials maintain confidence in the current policy decisions, emphasizing that the disappointing data does not necessarily warrant an immediate rate cut [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of quantitative tightening on the European Central Bank's monetary policy stance is limited [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank's current monetary policy remains focused on addressing inflation and economic stability despite the ongoing quantitative tightening measures [1] - The comments from ECB Governing Council member Nagel suggest a cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy in response to market conditions [1] - The overall sentiment indicates that while quantitative tightening is a factor, it does not significantly alter the ECB's strategic direction at this time [1]