黄金行情回顾： 上周提前布局黄金低位做多策略收获良好成果：提前布局——3315-25 美元/盎司参与做空，多次触发抵 达进场的点位，进场后成功筑底反弹，金价成功持续拉升，后续仍要留意市场消息 。 从消息面上看，金价此前受特朗普解雇美联储理事库克影响，投资者信心动摇，避险需求提振金价，周 二上涨 0.83%，创 8 月 11 日以来新高，同时美联储 9 月降息预期也对金价形成支撑。 稳妥者依托 3450 美元/盎司强压力位，在 3445-3435 美元/盎司附近做空 从技术面来上看： ❶：日线级别上:布林带开口平缓，金价在布林带中轨上方运行，MACD 技术指标金叉运行中，RSI 技 术指标超卖反弹运行中，金价触底反弹需求明显； 下方多单：激进者依托 3300 美元/盎司支撑位，企稳后在 3315-3325 美元/盎司附近参与做多； 稳妥者依托 3250 美元/盎司支撑位，在 3270-3280 美元/盎司再参与做多； 黄金消息面： 上方空单：激进者依托 3400 美元/盎司压制，承压后在3395-3385美元/盎司参与做空； ❷：4小时级别上:布林带开口向上，金价在布林带上轨下方运行；MACD 技术指标金叉运行 ...

2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price changes and the corresponding multi - and short - term logics[2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Data - **Commodities**: From August 11 to August 15, 2025, palm oil had the highest weekly increase of 5.11% at a closing price of 9460.00; while gold had the largest weekly decline of 1.52% at a closing price of 775.80. Other commodities like polysilicon, bean meal also showed varying degrees of increase or decrease[3]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, S&P 500, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, CSI 500 increased by 3.88%[3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.36%, while 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.26%[3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.54%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.43%[3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included increased trading volume in the stock market, favorable policies, and improved liquidity. Bearish factors were potential over - heating in some indices and high A - share valuations[5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were loose funds, central bank's net injection, and weak economic data. Bearish factors were volatile long - term bonds and strong stock market performance[5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 2 were bullish, 4 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included high - load operation of US refineries and expected end of OPEC+ production increase. Bearish factors were the progress of US - Russia summit and the slowdown of Asian oil demand[6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were strong export data and low inventory in some regions. Bearish factors were the call for policy re - evaluation in Indonesia and increased domestic inventory[6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved macro - policies and low domestic inventory. Bearish factors were US tariff expansion and unstable trade situation[7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: Among 8 institutions, 5 were bearish and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were policy support and cost increase. Bearish factors were high import volume and low demand in the off - season[7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bearish and 7 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were expected Fed rate cuts and economic data deterioration. Bearish factors were high PPI data and improved risk appetite[8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were increased iron - water production and decreased global shipments. Bearish factors were increased port inventory and weak demand for steel products[8].

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 12 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 二、行业要闻 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 美联储 9 月降息预期升温，宽松预期支撑铝价偏强震荡，主力报收于 20700， 上涨 0.15%。08-09 升水报 20，铝锭保持累库，现货升贴水基本持稳运行，日内 华东报-50，中原报-160，华南报-55；铸铝合金跟随沪铝震荡偏强，AD-AL 负价 差报-520，淡季新料产出减少叠加高温抑制拆解量，因此废铝货源紧张，而下游 汽车行业 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded due to the significant increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain after the premium issue of US copper tariffs subsided, and the clear tone of China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies boosting the demand in the non - ferrous metal market. The fact that major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US also slightly improved the global economic growth outlook. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and the near - month structure turning to flat water [2][8]. - Overall, after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US. The market is optimistic about the Fed's rate cut in September. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies will boost the non - ferrous metal market demand and support the domestic economic base. Both internal and external macro factors are favorable for copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mine supply remains tight, domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season is limited, and the release of global refined copper production capacity is slow. Copper prices are expected to enter a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From August 1st to August 8th, LME copper rose from $9,633/ton to $9,768/ton, a 1.40% increase; COMEX copper rose from 444.3 cents/pound to 448.5 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78,400 yuan/ton to 78,490 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase; international copper rose from 69,530 yuan/ton to 69,650 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.14 to 8.04, and the LME spot premium/discount decreased from - $49.25/ton to - $69.55/ton, a 41.22% change. The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from 175 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 8th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 577,405 tons, a 5.18% increase from August 1st. LME inventory increased by 14,100 tons (9.95%), COMEX inventory increased by 4,459 short tons (1.72%), SHFE inventory increased by 9,390 tons (12.95%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 500 tons (0.67%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Rebound Reasons: The significant increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain, China's policies boosting demand, and the improved global economic growth outlook due to no retaliation from major economies against the US all contributed to the copper price rebound. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 8th, the total global inventory increased to 577,400 tons. LME copper inventory increase led to the LME0 - 3 turning to a contango structure, and the cancelled warrant ratio slightly decreased to 7.1%. SHFE inventory increased by 9,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory was basically flat. The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium fell to around $50. Overseas supplies flowed back to LME Asian warehouses and some entered China, increasing imports. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.04 due to the short - term depreciation of the US dollar after the rate - cut expectation increased [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, inflation expectations increased, credit access became more difficult, but the employment outlook improved. Trump nominated a new Fed governor who is expected to be dovish. India may not retaliate against US tariffs. Fed official Kashkari believes that the US economy is slowing and rate cuts may be appropriate, with a 93.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME. The US service industry index showed signs of stagnation, and the risk of stagflation is rising. In China, exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year (in US dollars), and the total import and export value in the first seven months increased by 3.5% year - on - year, with high - tech product trade growing strongly [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Overseas, Codelco's Chilean mine has not restarted, and the Panama project may not resume production this year. Six overseas mining companies have lowered their production targets. In China, the production of large and medium - sized smelters was high in July but is expected to decline slightly in August. In terms of demand, power grid investment weakened, the开工 rate of wire and cable enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries is expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season but still has year - on - year growth. Overall, domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but remained resilient year - on - year, and the market maintained a tight balance [10]. 3. Industry News - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine earthquake may be caused by mining activities. The company has applied to restart part of the mine and is investigating the cause. If the mine remains closed, it will exacerbate the global copper supply shortage and increase Codelco's financial pressure. Restarting the mine requires convincing regulators and unions of the stability of the entire underground operation area [12]. - Teck Resources' Q2 2025 copper production was 109,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease and a 2.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Antamina's production decreased due to an accident and lower ore treatment volume, while Highland Valley Copper's production increased. Antamina's 2025 copper production is expected to be between 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Quebrada Blanca's Q2 production was 52,700 tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase and a 24.6% quarter - on - quarter increase. The QB port facility's loading machine malfunction is expected to last until H1 2026, and production is not expected to be affected. QBII's 2025 copper production guidance is revised down to 210,000 - 230,000 tons [13]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly last week due to the decline in the spot premium of domestic copper and weak restocking by cable enterprises in the off - season. The processing fees in different regions vary. The price of 8mm T3 low - oxygen copper rods in South and Southwest China increased by $50 - 100/ton compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to be under slight pressure in mid - August [14][15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and other related data such as basis, premium, and TC [16][18][21][22][26][27][29][32][35][38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tariff disturbances leading to fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be treated as oscillating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources issued a plan to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027. Overseas, Trump proposed a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, and Apple promised a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Raw material inventory has increased, and the current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The coal mine inventory pressure has eased, and the coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Given the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, tariff disturbances, and fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be considered to be oscillating [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the contract position increased by 428 lots, the coke 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 41.50 points, the registered warehouse receipt increased by 40 lots, and the futures steel - coke ratio decreased by 0.08 points [9][11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 7, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the coke basis decreased by 66.50. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In June, the output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 0.27% to 73.75%, and the daily coke output increased by 0.19 to 52.02. Coke inventory decreased by 1.89 to 44.63, coking coal inventory decreased by 11.31 to 832.75, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.21 days to 12.0 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons from last week but an increase of 8.62 tons compared to last year. As of August 1, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 6.24 tons to 884.59 tons, a 15.17% year - on - year increase. In terms of inventory structure, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [36][38][40]. - **Other Data**: In June, China exported 510,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 41.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from January to June was 3.51 million tons, a 27.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative export from January to July was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of August 3, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities increased by 15.22% month - on - month but decreased by 15.43% year - on - year [45][47][49].

周三（8月6日）黄金市场在多重因素交织下呈现出复杂局面：现货金价因获利了结而小幅回落，市场对美联储9月降息的预期显著升温，特朗普政 府对印度及瑞士等国的关税举措引发地缘经济紧张，同时对美联储人事调整的关注进一步加剧市场不确定性。周四（8月7日）亚市早盘，现货黄 金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3370关口附近。 此外，本交易日还需关注美国初请失业金人数变动、英国央行利率决议和美联储官员讲话。 【黄金行情走势简析】 来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 2，小时图，黄金早间跌至3364美元上涨，重新站上中轨，当前运行在3380美元附近，5日均线向上，KDJ指标再次金叉，附图拐头向上，MACD 指标红色多头动能柱增量，短线走势也是偏多。结合日线走势看，黄金日内操作依旧是倾向回落做多单为主，下方关注3370美元支撑，上方关注 本周高点3390美元和3400美元整位关口的压力。 【8.7黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健回落3367-3370美元附近多，止损3362美元，止盈看3385-3390美元 2，黄金稳健上涨3393-3396美元附近空，止损3401美元，止盈看3380美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 1，上一个交易日 ...

美国在8月7日恢复征收所谓"对等关税"，美国与英国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、欧盟和韩国 等经济体达成初步协议。尽管特朗普声明不会再次延期，但美国财长贝森特强调，即使8月7日关税上 调，谈判窗口仍然开放。 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的 美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 美国7月非农就业数据意外大幅降温，市场重启了美联储9月降息预期，利率下行和美元指数下跌提振贵 金属价格。美国关税政策基本落地，全球贸易局势趋稳，市场避险情绪降温，但仍需关注中美贸易谈判 进展。市场也会更加关注8月非农就业数据，若失业率持续超预期上升，市场可能对降息幅度更加乐 观，而实际利率下行预期或打开金价上行空间。黄金短期或维持区间震荡，但在降息预期升温与地缘不 确定性等因素支撑下，不排除突破当前震荡区间的可能，建议逢低做多为主。 全球贸易局势趋稳 美国劳动力市场已经不再处于温和放缓状态，而是出现了"急速刹车"，市场对美国经济前景的担忧陡 升。 美联储内部分歧 ...

来源：北京时间 作为本周最受关注的数据，美国７月非农就业报告意外不及预期，加之此前两个月数据大幅下修，给美 国劳动力市场现状敲响了警钟。与此同时，疲软的就业报告也加大美联储9月降息的压力。值得一提的 是，就在一年前，非农数据意外下滑推动了美联储开启宽松周期。 克利夫兰联储行长贝丝·哈马克指出，非农就业报告"令人失望"，但并不意味着美联储应该在本周的政 策会议上降息。他表示，对日前联邦公开市场委员会做出的决定充满信心。7月30号，美联储宣布将联 邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 就业报告发布后，市场反应剧烈，标准普尔500指数期货跌幅收窄，美债收益率大幅下挫，美国两年期 国债收益率跌至一个月低点，美元指数日内跌幅扩大至1%。本次就业报告表明，雇主继续创造就业机 会，但减少了招聘，这表明更多企业因应对经济不确定性而暂停扩张计划，就业市场的裂痕正在加深。 特朗普关税言论带来的不确定性，以及移民政策收紧和人口老龄化导致的劳动力供应减少，共同影响了 就业市场的表现。经济学家警告称，混乱的关税政策、移民限制以及联邦政府的裁员可能会抑制经济增 长。 美联储9月降息预期重塑 分析认为，疲软的就业数据可 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，7月美国非农新增数据大幅低于预期，且前值出现断层式下修，反映出劳动力市场需求侧降温幅度快于供给 侧，其中政府部门从贡献项转为拖累项，制造业和商业服务均表现疲弱。数据发布后，海外市场的美联储9月降息预期回归，美元指数反弹势能中断、回 落至98.9附近水平。美债收益率曲线出现明显下行，对美联储政策敏感的美债2年期收益率下行22.6BP至3.7%附近水平，美股三大指数均现调整。 招商证券主要观点如下： 事件：2025年8月1日，美国劳工统计局(BLS)发布：2025年7月非农就业人数新增7.3万人，前值14.7万人;失业率录得4.2%，前值4.1%。 1)7月非农新增7.3万人，低于市场所预期的10.4万人，而且前月数据大幅下修，6月非农新增数据从初值的14.7万人急剧下修至1.4万人，5月数据从14.4万 人再度下修至1.9万人，合计下修高达25.8万人。 2)分行业来看，制造业、商业服务和政府部门均表现疲弱。政府部门录得-1.0万人(前值1.1万人)，其中联邦政府降幅扩大至-1.2万人(前值-0.9万人)，仍反 映出BLS此前将持续领取遣散费人员计入就业人数的滞后影响；州 ...