达拉斯联储一份研究报告审视了三种资产组合结构及其利弊，结论认为：资产负债久期匹配策略可有效 降低收益波动，而资产多元化组合则能减少集中风险，具有更强可行性。 大家好，关注一下美联储的消息。 美银称：美联储资产组合调整可能为财政部带来2万亿美元资金 8月16日，据美国银行分析，如果美联储调整其国债资产组合结构，未来两年可能将购买近2万亿美元的 短期国债（T-bills），几乎足以覆盖同期财政部所有的短期国债发行。 美国银行策略师马克·卡巴纳与凯蒂·克雷格指出，美联储预计将调整其投资组合，使资产与负债更好匹 配，从而降低利率风险和负权益，并缩短其负债的久期。这一调整还将意外地成为财政部的一项重要利 好，后者近期不断发行短期债务，以弥补财政赤字和补充在上月提高债务上限后急剧减少的现金余额。 卡巴纳表示："如果你假设美联储将抵押贷款证券（MBS）的到期和提前偿付部分全部再投资于短期国 债，并将到期的长期国债也滚动至短期国债，大致可以达到1万亿美元的规模。这几乎恰好等于财政部 发行的短期国债，意味着在短端市场上出现了一个新的需求来源。" 据美银策略师估算，如果美联储将近50%的资产转向短期国债，将更好地匹配其短期负债（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's asset portfolio could potentially provide the U.S. Treasury with $2 trillion in funding over the next two years, primarily through the purchase of short-term Treasury bills [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Asset Portfolio Adjustment - According to Bank of America, if the Federal Reserve adjusts its bond portfolio structure, it may purchase nearly $2 trillion in short-term Treasury bills, which could cover all short-term debt issuance by the Treasury during the same period [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to realign its asset portfolio to better match its liabilities, thereby reducing interest rate risk and negative equity while shortening the duration of its liabilities [3][4]. - If the Federal Reserve reinvests the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities and long-term Treasury bonds into short-term Treasury bills, it could create a new source of demand in the short-end market [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Treasury and Market Demand - This shift is anticipated to ensure strong market demand for short-term government debt, alleviating concerns about liquidity shortages due to large-scale Treasury issuance [4]. - The estimated supply of short-term Treasury bills is projected to be $825 billion for fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion for fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its long-term bond auction size until October 2026 [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Current Operations - The Federal Reserve is currently in a quantitative tightening phase, but recent comments from policymakers suggest discussions about asset portfolio adjustments may have occurred during the July FOMC meeting [4]. - The Dallas Fed's research indicates that matching asset and liability durations can effectively reduce income volatility, while a diversified asset portfolio can mitigate concentration risks [5]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Bank of America analysts expect the Federal Reserve to end its balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and subsequently begin adjusting its reinvestment strategy [6].

智通财经APP获悉，据美国银行公司称，美联储持有的美国国债组合结构可能出现变动，这可能导致该 央行在未来两年内购买近 2 万亿美元的短期债券，足以吸纳该期间美国财政部全部的债券发行量。美联 储若采取此类举措，将缓解人们对大规模发行美国国债会耗尽市场流动性这一担忧。 美银策略师Mark Cabana和Katie Craig预计，美联储将调整其资产组合，以使资产与负债更加匹配。 此举旨在规避利率风险和负资产状况，同时缩短负债期限。这也将为财政部带来急需的收益，因为财政 部一直在发行数十亿美元的短期债券来填补不断扩大的赤字，并在上个月提高债务上限后补充现金余 额。 美国银行的策略师们在周五的一份报告中写道，货币管理机构可以将近 50%的资产转为国库券，以匹 配其短期负债——主要是准备金和逆回购协议——同时还能吸收国库现金余额的变化。他们估计，在 2026 财年，国库券的供应量将达到 8250 亿美元，在 2027 财年将达到 10670 亿美元，假设财政部在 2026 年 10 月之前保持债券拍卖规模不变。 美国银行利率策略部门的负责人Cabana在一次单独采访中表示："如果你对美联储的资产负债表进行一 些操作，并 ...

国际新闻 l 据悉特朗普顾问们认为美联储理事Waller是接替鲍威尔主席职位的最合适人选。白宫经济顾问委员会 主席Miran获特朗普提名出任美联储理事，任期至明年1月。 l 美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2021年底以来最高，反映劳动力市场进一步降温。 l 美国二季度生产率回升，有助于抑制工资相关的通胀压力。另据纽约联储调查，7月消费者通胀预期 上升，对就业市场看法改善。 白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran获特朗普提名出任美联储理事，任期至明年1月。特朗普顾问们认为美联 储理事Waller是接替鲍威尔主席职位的最合适人选。 隔夜要点 l 美国股市道琼斯工业指数和标普500指数周四收低，受到制药商礼来（LLY.US）股价重挫的拖累，纳 指则创下收盘纪录新高。美国公债收益率在震荡交易中小幅上涨。美元走弱，媒体报导称美联储理事沃 勒成为美联储主席热门人选。油价连续第6个交易日下跌，此前克里姆林宫称俄罗斯总统普京将在未来 几天会见美国总统特朗普，从而提高了通过外交途径结束乌克兰战争的预期。金价升至逾两周最高，特 朗普关税生效以及美国就业数据强化降息预期。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | 日变动% | 年初至今变动% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fifth rate cut in the current cycle, amidst a divided policy meeting [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut rates was reached after a split vote of 5 to 4, the first time since the Bank gained monetary policy decision-making authority in 1998 [3]. - Four members, including Governor Bailey, supported the 25 basis point cut, while one member initially favored a 50 basis point cut but ultimately agreed to the smaller reduction due to the voting deadlock [3]. - Four members, including the Deputy Governor and Chief Economist, opposed the rate cut, indicating a significant division within the committee [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The decision reflects a conflict between rising inflation and a weak labor market, raising concerns about potential "stagflation" in the UK [6]. - The Bank of England noted an increase in inflation risks since May, particularly due to rising food prices, with inflation expected to reach 4% in September, surpassing the previous peak forecast of 3.7% [6]. - Despite a baseline expectation for inflation to decline, the committee warned that temporary inflation increases could exert upward pressure on wages and pricing [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank indicated that the UK's potential GDP growth remains subdued, with ongoing domestic and geopolitical risks to economic activity [6]. - There is a consensus among committee members that consumer spending faces downward risks, while savings rates may increase as households adopt more precautionary saving behaviors [6]. - Future decisions on reducing policy tightening will depend on whether deflationary pressures continue to ease [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, and UK government bond yields experienced a slight increase [7]. - The Bank also warned of signs of pressure in the long-term bond market ahead of the annual decision on quantitative tightening in September, suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of long-term bond sales [9].

美联储最新利率决议出炉。 北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储连续第五次议息会议决定暂停降息，且并未发 出9月可能降息的信号。 相比利率决议，美联储的内部分歧成为本次议息会议更大的看点。两名美联储官员在本次会议上投出了反对票，都支持降息25个基点。有分析指出，这凸显联储决 策者对关税影响的共识在破裂。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话释放了偏"鹰派"的政策信号。 他表示，美联储"尚未就9月是否调整政策做出任何决定"。这一表态令市场对9月降息 甚至年底前再次降息的预期降温 ，美股三大指数一度集体跳水，盘中由涨转跌。 美联储宣布 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 回顾此前，美联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，但自今年1月美国总统特朗普上任以来，美联储一直"按兵不动"。 值得一提的是，本次暂停降息的决策没有得到全体联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票委员的一致支持，其中美联储负责金融监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is under pressure to hold a significant portion of its long-term government bonds, potentially for decades, due to market volatility and changing buyer dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Forecasting institutions, including Oxford Economics and HSBC, predict that the Bank of England will limit the sale of its remaining £163 billion (approximately $219 billion) of government bonds with maturities over 20 years, marking a shift in its approach to reducing its crisis-era balance sheet [1]. - The market for long-term UK government bonds is increasingly reliant on more volatile hedge funds and foreign investors, as traditional stable buyers like pension funds reduce their demand [1]. - Recent market events, such as the sell-off of 30-year bonds due to rumors of the Chancellor's dismissal, highlight the fragility of the current market environment [1]. Group 2: Quantitative Tightening Strategy - The Bank of England is currently reducing its bond holdings at a rate of approximately £100 billion per year, with plans for £13 billion in active sales and £87 billion in natural maturities [2]. - There is a potential slowdown in the quantitative tightening process, with expectations of only £26 billion in active sales next year, which could pose market risks [2]. - The Bank of England's Governor has indicated changes in the liquidity of the long-end yield curve, suggesting future sales may be lower than previously anticipated [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Michael Saunders, a former rate setter at the Bank of England, advocates for a new strategy where a significant portion of long-term debt will not be sold, aiming to reduce risks to market stability [2][5]. - Saunders' proposal includes retaining £163 billion of long-term bonds while continuing to reduce holdings of bonds with maturities between 3 to 20 years, which could mitigate the risk of market disruption [5]. - The plan involves recognizing losses on certain bonds, which would be offset by the Bank's cash holdings, making the arrangement financially beneficial [5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The Bank of England has purchased more long-term government bonds than other central banks following the financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic, necessitating active debt sales while other central banks can allow their balance sheets to shrink naturally [6].

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh calls for a comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve's operations and suggests a policy alliance with the Treasury Department, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy approach [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy - Warsh criticizes the current Federal Reserve officials, particularly Chairman Jerome Powell, for their credibility issues and failure to lower interest rates, which aligns with President Trump's demands [1][2]. - There is speculation about Trump's potential actions regarding Powell's position, with discussions among Republican lawmakers about possibly dismissing him [2][3]. - Warsh believes that the Federal Reserve's mechanism change is inevitable and emphasizes the need for a new "Treasury-Fed agreement" to manage national debt issuance effectively [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Policy - Warsh argues that the delay in interest rate cuts is a significant flaw and that public pressure from the President on the Federal Reserve is justified [2][3]. - He supports the current policy of quantitative tightening but insists on collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to lower borrowing costs [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at the end of July but may begin to cut rates in September [6].

Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - On July 7, Trump announced a new round of tariff measures, leading to a muted reaction in financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices down by only 0.79% and 0.92% respectively [1] - The U.S. stock market rebounded in the first half of the year due to factors such as TACO trading, fiscal expansion, resilient job market, and stock buybacks, despite facing four instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies [1] - Historical data suggests that U.S. monetary tightening or economic stagflation poses the greatest threat to the stock market, although the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts may provide support [1] Group 2: Liquidity and Debt Issuance - The U.S. Treasury's resumption of debt issuance in Q3 is expected to create a "drain" effect on dollar liquidity, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to release liquidity by slowing down quantitative tightening or cutting rates [2] - The net debt issuance by the U.S. Treasury is projected to be around $1 trillion in Q3, partly to refinance maturing debt and meet other financing needs [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Recent tariff threats from the Trump administration could raise the effective tariff rate from 13.4% to 14.9%, with a potential increase to 18%-20% in a "no deal" scenario, raising concerns about stagflation risks in the U.S. economy [5][6] - There are indications that inflationary pressures from tariffs are beginning to manifest, with a survey showing the highest percentage of small businesses planning to raise prices since March 2024 [6] Group 4: Corporate Earnings and Market Volatility - The second quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks has begun, with expectations of a significant slowdown in profit growth, largely influenced by tariff uncertainties [9] - According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are expected to see only a 5% profit growth in Q2, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2023, with six out of eleven sectors projected to grow year-over-year [9] - The technology sector, particularly large tech companies, is expected to drive earnings growth, but any decline in tech stock performance could lead to increased pressure on the broader market [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America suggests that the Bank of England may slow down its quantitative tightening from October, reducing the annual bond reduction from £100 billion to £60 billion [1] Group 1 - The potential slowdown in quantitative tightening is attributed to the tightening of monetary policy that is exerting additional pressure on the economy [1] - Adjusting the pace of quantitative tightening could help alleviate the impact on financial conditions and economic growth [1]