据摩根大通11月17日发布的全球市场策略报告，美国联邦预算赤字将在2026财年进一步恶化至1.955万亿美元，约占GDP的6.2%。更为严峻的是，受债务 到期量激增影响，美国财政部在2026至2030财年间将面临高达5.5万亿美元的融资缺口。 面对这一财政压力，摩根大通策略师预测，财政部现有的票据发行策略将难以为继，这迫使其必须调整债务管理模式。 据追风交易台，报告指出，虽然当前的附息国债拍卖日程尚能应对2026财年的需求，但从2027财年起，融资缺口将显著扩大。摩根大通预计，美国财政部 将从2026年11月开始启动一系列持续数个季度的发行规模增加计划。 值得注意的是，新增发行的重点将集中在收益率曲线的中前端，而20年期和30年期国债的拍卖规模预计将保持不变，以应对长端需求结构性疲软的现实。 在短期流动性方面，摩根大通预测2026年美国将净发行7700亿美元的国库券。与此同时，美联储在二级市场的操作将成为关键变量。随着美联储量化紧 缩、预计于2025年12月1日结束，该行计划通过二级市场购买约2820亿美元的国库券，并将抵押贷款支持证券的本金支付再投资于国债。这一举措虽然在 短期内缓解了私营部门的吸收压力，但 ...

与此同时，美联储已通过常备回购工具为合格参与者提供流动性准备，但此类流动性需求并不旺盛。推测 原因在于主要交易商和合格存款机构并未感受到流动性紧缩压力。但这些合格参与者本有能力平抑市场整 体的流动性需求。因此美联储可能感到沮丧——他们随时准备供应流动性，表面看来存在流动性需求，但 实际需求量却微乎其微。 我们仍认为银行储备充足，但美联储当前影响流动性状况最便捷的方式是购买国库券，从而诱导银行储备 增加。不过这终究是解决流动性紧张表象的粗放手段。更优方案是加速推进补充流动性比率要求的放宽， 从而让大型银行释放更多资产负债表空间。当前有效联邦基金利率易于高于超额准备利率，从技术层面看 这并非问题——银行可通过联邦基金利率窗口操作防止利率大幅偏离。 总体而言，我们认为当前状况可控且无需担忧。但美联储仍将采取应对措施，主要通过超额购买国债（自 12月1日起）来抵消抵押贷款支持证券的到期规模。与此同时，过去24小时回购市场已显现趋稳迹象，若 能持续将有助于缓解有效资金利率压力。 超短期端之外，市场远更为平静 近期美国回购市场资金紧张并未令我们过度担忧。这确实表明流动性环境存在不均衡现象。合格的常设回 购参与者似乎并不需 ...

Core Insights - Barclays strategists expect the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing Treasury securities in February next year, following indications from key Fed officials about expanding the balance sheet [1] - The anticipated asset purchases are seen as a risk management strategy rather than a shift in monetary policy stance, with a focus on maintaining reserve levels in line with economic growth [1] Summary by Categories - **Federal Reserve Actions** - The Federal Reserve is likely to announce asset purchases at the January meeting, starting at a pace of $15 billion per month [1] - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and other officials suggest that the purchases aim to align reserves with economic growth [1] - **Market Implications** - The market's attention to repo rates has influenced the Fed's decision-making process, leading to an earlier-than-expected start to asset purchases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tightening of dollar liquidity is impacting various assets, including Bitcoin and overvalued tech stocks, as the market experiences a withdrawal of liquidity due to government shutdown and ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and TGA - The U.S. Treasury has been unable to distribute funds to the economy due to the government shutdown, leading to a situation where it is effectively "sucking" liquidity from the market [1]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) has increased from under $300 billion to nearly $1 trillion, absorbing approximately $700 billion from the market, with $160 billion accumulated since November [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening - The ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve is exacerbating liquidity issues, despite indications that it may end on December 1 [5]. - The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is set at 3.75%-4%, but the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is being influenced by the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP) [7][8]. Group 3: Indicators of Liquidity Tightness - The widening spread between official rates and market rates indicates liquidity tightness, with the SOFR rate currently at 4.22%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target range [8]. - The current conditions suggest that the Federal Reserve may not intervene unless the EFFR exceeds the target range significantly, which has not yet occurred [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The resolution of the liquidity crisis hinges on the timing of the government reopening and potential actions by the Federal Reserve to release liquidity [11]. - Market expectations suggest that a resolution may occur in mid-October, which could lead to a resurgence in liquidity-sensitive assets once the government reopens [12][14].

美联储在银行准备金下降之后做出停止缩表决定，这表明官员们正更加依赖联邦基金利率这一主要工具 来实施货币政策，并以此衡量金融系统中的流动性状况。美联储周三表示，将从12月1日起停止缩减其 国债持仓。此前，短期货币市场利率连续数周维持在高位。尽管美联储表示将继续缩减抵押贷款支持证 券(MBS)持有量，并将到期资金再投资于国库券，但并未宣布其他缓解融资成本压力的流动性措施。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has ended its balance sheet reduction after three and a half years, replacing maturing MBS holdings with short-term Treasury securities starting in December [4][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - The decision to cut rates was widely anticipated by the market, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement [6]. - There remains a division within the FOMC regarding the rate cuts, with two dissenting votes; one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut while another preferred to maintain the current rate [11][12]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed's balance sheet reduction, which began on June 1, 2022, will conclude on December 1, 2023, with a shift to reinvesting MBS principal payments into short-term Treasury securities [9][10]. - The Fed had previously reduced its monthly balance sheet reduction pace, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity in the market [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent labor market indicators align with trends observed before the government shutdown, with an acknowledgment of increased risks to employment in recent months [13][14]. - The statement reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, indicating a slowdown in growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Ghana plans to issue 75.7 billion Ghanaian Cedis in government bonds between October and December 2025 as part of a strategy to revitalize the domestic capital market and enhance the predictability and transparency of public financing [1] Group 1: Financing Plans - The financing plan for this quarter includes treasury bills and bonds, aligning with the goal of extending the maturity of public debt as outlined by the Public Debt Management Office [1] - Out of the total issuance, 67.517 billion Cedis will be allocated for refinancing maturing debt, while 8.182 billion Cedis will address new financing needs [1] Group 2: Auction and Market Liquidity - The government will conduct weekly primary auctions for 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day treasury bills [1] - Additionally, the government plans to reopen certain instruments under the Domestic Debt Exchange Program (DDEP) to improve liquidity in the secondary market [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the 5th review of Ghana's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and reached a staff-level agreement, which is expected to boost confidence in Ghana's reform plans [1] - Moody's upgraded Ghana's credit rating from Caa2 to Caa1 with a stable outlook, reflecting improvements in public debt, fiscal discipline, and policy credibility [1] - The IMF's upcoming disbursement of $385 million will increase total spending under the $3 billion aid program to approximately $2 billion, indicating progress in macroeconomic stability and economic growth exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - Ghana's treasury bills saw a subscription rate exceeding 23% in the latest auction, with slight increases in yields for 91-day and 364-day treasury bills, indicating growing investor interest in cedi-denominated assets [2] - The IMF projects Ghana's economic growth rate to reach 4.8% next year, driven by strong performance in the services and agriculture sectors, while inflation is expected to remain within single-digit targets [2] - Structural reforms and fiscal measures are crucial for Ghana to maintain economic momentum post-IMF program, with potential for further rating upgrades in 2026 if fiscal discipline and debt restructuring are successfully managed [2]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve may end balance sheet reduction in the coming months, but the role of the U.S. Treasury was not mentioned by Powell [1] - The U.S. Treasury is increasing the supply of Treasury bills, necessitating a higher general account balance [1] - The general account balance has been targeted at approximately $850 billion, with expectations to reach at least $900 billion by the next quarterly report on November 3 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will decrease bank reserves, which are currently around $3 trillion, nearing a "sufficient" level [1] - Barclays strategists indicate that the growth in the Treasury's general account balance consumes reserves, increasing pressure on the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction and eventually expand its balance sheet [1] - The report from October 14 suggests that the Fed will need to expand its balance sheet to address the growth in non-reserve liabilities [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is accelerating the weekly auction of Treasury bills, with a net supply of $146 billion this month, exceeding expectations by $80 billion [1] - The increase in Treasury bill supply requires the Treasury's general account balance to rise to keep pace with cash flow [1] - According to policy, the general account balance should cover total expenditures and maturing marketable debt over a week [1]

Core Insights - Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve may end its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, with an implicit acknowledgment of the role played by the U.S. Treasury [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Treasury Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury is continuously increasing the supply of Treasury bills, necessitating a higher general account balance [1] - Over the past year, the target balance for the Treasury's general account has been approximately $850 billion, which is expected to reach at least $900 billion in the next quarterly report on November 3 [1] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction will decrease the reserves in the U.S. banking system, which currently stands at about $3 trillion, nearing what is considered a "sufficient" level [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Barclays strategist Samuel Earl indicated that the growth in the Treasury's general account balance further depletes reserves, increasing pressure on the Fed to halt its balance sheet reduction [1] - Ultimately, this situation may necessitate an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet [1]