Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in interest rate cut expectations is primarily driven by the resilience of recent U.S. economic data and persistent inflation [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls consistently exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate staying low, indicating a tight supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1] - This labor market strength supports consumer spending and alleviates concerns about a short-term economic recession [1] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators, such as the core PCE price index, have shown a decline, but the decrease is less than anticipated, leaving a gap to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] Federal Reserve Stance - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have leaned towards a "hawkish" tone, emphasizing the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to ensure sustained inflation decline [1] - This shift in sentiment has directly weakened market bets on a rate cut in December, with the probability dropping from over 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% [1] Market Impact - The rapid change in interest rate expectations has triggered a revaluation of global assets [1]