0 Sat all the VH FF 60033226 NO.LONII "H wa 专艺 and the state of the state of the r 11 随着全球金融市场持续波动，美国国债收益率的走向再次成为焦点。瑞典北欧斯安银行（SEB）最新发布的报告指出，该行依然预计美国十年期国债收益率 将在2026年第一季度回落至约三点九的水平，但同时也承认当前的市场环境让这一判断更具挑战性。 SEB研究部首席策略师Jussi Hiljanen在报告中提到，要实现这一收益率目标，关键在于市场重新建立对美联储降息路径的信心。近期，美联储官员多次发表 偏鹰派的讲话，强调需要关注通胀黏性以及经济表现的韧性，这使投资者对未来货币政策方向的判断更加谨慎。收益率因此维持在相对高位，也让预测的落 地增加了不确定性。 总体来看，SEB的观点属于基于宏观趋势的中性判断：既没有对短期市场波动做过度解读，也没有忽略政策预期变化可能带来的影响。在全球货币政策方向 仍未完全明朗的背景下，类似的分析为理解债券市场变化提供了有益视角。 未来几个月，美联储表态、通胀数据以及经济活动指标仍将是影响美债收益率走势的关键因素。收益率能否如 ...

美联储12月降息前景扑朔迷离，市场分歧加剧 近期美联储12月降息预期出现戏剧性逆转，利率掉期市场显示降息概率跌破50%，而期权市场却涌现大量押注降息的SOFR合约（未平仓量达86.3万份）。 关键矛盾点在于：经济数据延迟发布（如10月失业救济人数激增、私营岗位减少）加剧不确定性，美联储内部罕见出现"三向分裂"——理事沃勒支持降息， 达拉斯联储主席洛根反对，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则主张按兵不动。鲍威尔直言12月降息"远非确定"，导致CME利率期货定价从94.4%暴跌至45.8%。 市场陷入"数据迷雾"，降息逻辑遭遇信任危机 这场博弈暴露出美联储沟通机制的失效：政府停摆导致经济数据真空，官员表态矛盾（如沃勒强调"劳动力市场疲软"而洛根质疑通胀进展），使得投资者转 向SOFR期权对冲风险。网友调侃"美联储在玩狼人杀"，而分析师警告若12月不降息，美债收益率曲线或再度倒挂。争议背后是更深层的政策困境——通胀 黏性与经济放缓压力并存，降息周期能否持续已成全球市场悬案。 当利率掉期市场将美联储12月降息概率压至40%的冰点时，期权市场却涌现出86.3万份SOFR期权未平仓合约的巨量押注。这种罕见分歧背后，隐藏着华尔 街对 ...

Market Overview - On November 13, U.S. stock markets experienced their largest single-day decline in over a month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 800 points, reflecting a 1.65% decrease [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite index, heavily impacted by technology stocks, plummeted by 2.29% [2] - The decline was attributed to persistent inflation concerns, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and the aftermath of a government shutdown [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly the "Big Seven" tech companies, led the market downturn, with notable declines including Tesla down 6.64%, Nvidia down 3.58%, and Amazon down 2.71% [2] - In contrast, defensive value stocks saw an uptick, with the value stock index rising approximately 1% this week, while growth stocks fell by 0.6% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Cisco saw a 4.6% increase due to an upward revision of its revenue and profit forecasts, benefiting from increased demand for networking equipment [3] - Disney, however, faced a significant drop of 7.8% as concerns grew over a prolonged distribution dispute with YouTube TV, raising uncertainties about its traditional television business [3] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The recent government shutdown, lasting 43 days, resulted in an estimated economic loss of $1.5 trillion, significantly exceeding previous estimates [4] - Key social programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, were affected, leading to disruptions for 42 million Americans [4] - The aviation sector was particularly hard hit, with a 10% reduction in flight volumes at 40 major airports due to increased absenteeism among air traffic controllers [4] Policy and Data Concerns - The shutdown has created a "data vacuum," with critical economic reports like the Consumer Price Index and employment data potentially never being released, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions [5] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased from 70% to approximately 47% due to the uncertainty surrounding inflation and labor market resilience [5] Global and Domestic Implications - The turmoil in U.S. markets has had global repercussions, with concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth impacting oil prices and causing disruptions in transatlantic flight schedules [6] - The temporary resolution of the government shutdown does not address underlying governance issues, with significant budgetary disagreements remaining unresolved [7] - The potential for another government shutdown looms as only three of the twelve annual appropriations bills have been passed, indicating ongoing political instability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in interest rate cut expectations is primarily driven by the resilience of recent U.S. economic data and persistent inflation [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls consistently exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate staying low, indicating a tight supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1] - This labor market strength supports consumer spending and alleviates concerns about a short-term economic recession [1] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators, such as the core PCE price index, have shown a decline, but the decrease is less than anticipated, leaving a gap to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] Federal Reserve Stance - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have leaned towards a "hawkish" tone, emphasizing the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to ensure sustained inflation decline [1] - This shift in sentiment has directly weakened market bets on a rate cut in December, with the probability dropping from over 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% [1] Market Impact - The rapid change in interest rate expectations has triggered a revaluation of global assets [1]

Core Insights - The gold market in November 2025 is characterized by "high-level consolidation and tug-of-war between bulls and bears," with international gold prices testing the $4000 per ounce mark repeatedly [1] - The recent tax policy changes and brand premium differentiation have led to a three-tier pricing system in the domestic market, impacting the wholesale market significantly [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new tax policy exempts standard gold traded through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and futures exchanges from VAT, while off-market transactions incur a 13% VAT, affecting the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market [4] - The price gap between Shui Bei market gold and brand retail prices has narrowed to approximately 90 yuan per gram due to increased costs for some merchants [4] - Major banks like ICBC and CCB have paused gold accumulation services, raising concerns about liquidity tightening, although ICBC quickly resumed operations, indicating a focus on "regulating transactions" rather than "suppressing the market" [4] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East, market pricing of "extreme risks" has become more rational, with gold ETF holdings decreasing for four consecutive weeks, equivalent to a reduction of 69 tons of physical gold [4] - Speculative long positions have dropped to a three-month low, and the RSI indicator has decreased from 82 to 54, indicating a release of short-term overbought pressure [4] Group 3: Central Bank Support - Central bank gold purchases have become a long-term support factor, with global central banks acquiring 220 tons in Q3 2025, bringing the total for the year to 634 tons, nearing record levels from 2024 [4] - This "structural demand" effectively smooths out short-term volatility in the gold market [4] Group 4: Price Levels and Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices need to test the support level of $3800 per ounce; a drop below this level could trigger programmatic selling [4] - The market is currently in a phase of "macro support versus technical pressure," with key variables to watch: 1. Federal Reserve policy: December rate cut probabilities have decreased by 25 basis points, but forward rate futures are pricing in a cumulative 50 basis point cut in 2025 [4] 2. Geopolitical risks: An escalation in the Middle East could reignite safe-haven demand [4] 3. Inflation persistence: The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 123%, and if secondary inflation expectations rise, gold's inflation-hedging properties will become more pronounced [4]

上周，美股多家科技巨头发布财报，Meta和微软业绩报告不及市场预期，大型科技股遭遇重挫，但随后苹果和亚马逊公 布强劲的三季度财报，部分缓解了市场对人工智能泡沫的担忧，推动美股反弹。上周道指累计上涨0.75%，标普500指数 上涨0.71%，纳指上涨2.24%。 上周国际油价累计下跌 原油期货方面，上周市场预计OPEC+主要产油国可能会在12月份继续执行增产计划，在需求增量不足的背景下对油价形 成利空，国际油价下跌。美油期货主力合约价格累计下跌0.85%，布油期货主力合约价格累计下跌1.32%。 上周国际金价下跌超3% 贵金属市场方面，由于投资者获利了结、市场对国际贸易紧张局势的担忧有所缓解、投资者风险偏好回升等因素影响， 国际金价上周累计下跌3.41%。 英国央行本周公布最新利率决议 当地时间本周四，英国央行将公布最新的利率决议。目前英国经济正面临通胀黏性与经济增速放缓的双重挑战，英国消 费者价格指数也就是CPI，连续三个月徘徊在约3.8%的高位，市场普遍预期英国央行将按兵不动，将基准利率维持在4% 的水平，直至有更明确的经济放缓信号后才会选择再次降息。但投行高盛则认为，由于9月CPI上涨幅度低于预期，英国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in precious metal prices has led several related fund products to adjust their subscription limits, indicating increased market volatility and speculative sentiment [1][2][5]. Fund Subscription Limit Adjustments - On October 22, the Huatai-PineBridge Gold and Precious Metals Securities Investment Fund (LOF) announced a significant reduction in the subscription limit to 100 yuan per day per account, effective from October 23, 2025 [2][4]. - Similarly, the Guotai Junan UBS Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF) reduced its subscription limits for A and C class shares to 100 yuan and 1,000 yuan, respectively, starting October 20 [4][5]. - The Huatai-PineBridge fund had previously set a limit of 10,000 yuan just a day before the announcement, showcasing a drastic change in policy [4]. Market Conditions and Speculative Sentiment - The adjustments in subscription limits are attributed to the significant increase in gold and silver prices, which have seen volatility and heightened speculative activity in the market [4][5]. - As of October 22, gold prices have risen over 50% and silver prices nearly 70% year-to-date, indicating a strong bullish trend [6]. Risk Management and Investor Guidance - Fund managers are implementing stricter subscription measures to ensure the stability of investment portfolios and protect the interests of fund holders, signaling the high short-term risks associated with gold and silver investments [5][7]. - Financial institutions, including major banks, have also issued warnings regarding the increased volatility in precious metal prices, advising investors to manage their risk exposure carefully [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and macroeconomic factors [8]. - For silver, the transition from a traditional cyclical asset to a strategic growth asset is anticipated, driven by inflation, energy transition, and technological advancements [10].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon warns of risks related to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation while announcing slightly higher-than-expected credit loss provisions [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Dimon noted signs of a slowdown in job growth, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1] - He emphasized that the overall U.S. economy remains resilient despite rising uncertainties [1] Group 2: External Factors - The CEO highlighted complex geopolitical situations, tariff and trade uncertainties, high asset prices, and sticky inflation risks as factors contributing to elevated uncertainty levels [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14% after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, despite expectations of a decline [1][2] - The stock market reached record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 indices all setting new records [1] - The rise in long-term bond yields is attributed to market behavior of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" following the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are significant, as recent data indicates that inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates further [2][5] - High long-term yields increase government interest payments, potentially exacerbating the fiscal deficit and creating a vicious cycle [3][6] - The current economic environment poses a challenge for sustaining long-term financing costs above 4% [3] Group 3 - Future downward potential for long-term yields may be limited, with the Fed's dot plot indicating a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4][5] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that long-term Treasury yields may not quickly fall below 3% [5][6] - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations [7]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%[2] - The decision aligns with market expectations and reflects a "prudent easing" policy stance[3] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was approximately 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the same period last year[5] - Consumer spending has shown signs of weakness, while investment in equipment and intangibles has improved[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 1.6%, significantly lower than the 2024 level[7] Employment Trends - Non-farm payrolls have averaged only 29,000 new jobs over the past three months, well below the break-even level needed to maintain stable unemployment[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected thereafter[12] Inflation Concerns - The PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[13] - The Fed's cautious language regarding inflation reflects heightened sensitivity to rising price levels[13] Political Influences - Political pressure from former President Trump has become a significant variable affecting Fed policy, with calls for more aggressive rate cuts[15] - The appointment of Miran to the Fed Board is seen as a move to strengthen Trump's influence within the Fed[16] Asset Management - The Fed will continue its balance sheet reduction at a pace of $40 billion per month, with no changes to the current schedule[19] - The overall asset balance of the Fed has been gradually declining, with total assets at approximately $6.61 trillion as of September 10, 2025[24]