在历经大幅加息应对通胀的紧缩周期后，2025年见证了全球主要经济体宽松周期的演进发展。虽然多数 国家央行采取宽松政策，但各国货币政策的节奏、力度和前景分化进一步加剧。 总体呈现宽松趋势 通胀和增长两大因素仍然是影响全球主要央行决策的核心动力。 与之相类似，澳大利亚央行降息75个基点后，下半年通胀出现回升迹象，对外释放宽松周期可能临近结 束的信号。目前市场对于澳洲央行降息预期不断走低。加拿大央行也在2025年12月表示，目前的政策利 率大体处于合适水平，释放未来中止降息的信号。 与上述两方相反，日本央行属于紧缩阵营。随着日本薪资增长和通胀稳步处于2%以上目标水平，日本 央行在2025年年初、年底两次加息。其"逆行"政策安排事实上正式终结了此前10余年的日元"廉价货 币"时代。 2025年，全球主要经济体延续和实施宽松货币政策，主要得益于通胀压力下降。相较于2022年主要发达 经济体通胀10%的历史高位，2025年全球通胀显著弱化。虽然部分经济体通胀黏性仍存，但是主要经济 体核心通胀已经逐步回落到2%至4%区间。以欧洲央行为例，欧洲央行在2025年上半年密集开展4次降 息活动；与之相伴随的是通胀数据的持续走低，欧 ...

最新统计数据显示，美国企业上月宣布的裁员人数减少，同时计划增加招聘，这可能缓解经济学家们对于美国劳动力市场更急剧放缓的 负面担忧情绪。与此同时，该数据边际上显著强化了"软着陆"叙事，美国劳动力市场呈现"裁员缓和+招聘意向回升"的组合，基本上符合 经济软着陆轨迹所需的"增长放缓但不失速"的就业画像。 在美国市场，12月的多项就业市场统计数据显示，在经历了2025年的明显招聘放缓步伐之后，劳动力市场在进入新的一年之际呈现出一 定程度的乐观增长势头，对于美国2026年经济增长前景无疑是积极消息。 根据美国就业安置机构Challenger,Gray&Christmas Inc.的统计数据(即美国挑战者企业裁员人数)，美国企业在12月宣布裁减35,553个岗 位，意外创下2024年7月以来最低水平，且较此前两个月的高位裁员水平显著下降。此外，调查数据显示，美国雇主们计划新增近10,500 个岗位，大超市场一致预期，并且为2022年以来任何一个12月的最高水平。值得注意的是，该数据在被Challenger网站爬虫访问到之后， 提前于原定的美东时间晨间8:30发布。 尽管12月通常是裁员规模相对较少的月份，但裁员公告的下降 ...

凌晨突发！美联储释放重磅信号，全球市场一夜变天？ 2025年12月11日凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的议息会议声明如同一颗深水炸弹，引发全球金融市场剧烈震荡。 尽管年内第三次降息25个基点至3.5%-3.75%符合市场预期，但政策声明中释放的三大矛盾信号——"鹰鸽分裂"的投票结果、降息 路径的不确定性、通胀归因的争议——彻底打破了市场对"宽松周期延续"的幻想。全球股市、债市、汇市及大宗商品市场在政策 落地后上演"过山车"行情，一场由货币政策转向引发的全球资本重构已然拉开帷幕。 一、美联储政策转向：从"鸽派狂欢"到"分歧加剧" - 美股短期狂欢：道指盘中涨超1%，银行股指数飙升2.7%，科技股因估值修复预期上涨。但鲍威尔对通胀的鹰派措辞导致尾盘回 落，纳指涨幅收窄至0.55%。 - 新兴市场承压：美元指数跌至98.6下方，非美货币普遍走强，但外资回流新兴市场的持续性存疑。A股因人民币汇率企稳吸引部 分资金流入，但出口企业担忧人民币升值削弱竞争力。 2. 债市：美债收益率倒挂加深，流动性风险隐现 此次降息虽为2024年9月开启的宽松周期的延续，但19名FOMC委员中3人投出反对票的罕见分歧，暴露出美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond industry is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - US employment data continues to cool, with weak employment growth and a rising unemployment rate. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm data weakened significantly, with a decrease of 105,000 jobs [1] - Inflation data unexpectedly cooled. The US CPI in November rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose only 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, providing room for interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by consumer and business spending resilience and more stable trade policies [2] - In the US dollar bond market, it is recommended to prioritize defense. Corely allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds (5 - 7 - year investment - grade bonds currently have a yield of about 4.3%) and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping low allocations for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Macro - economy and Liquidity - Employment: US employment data shows a cooling trend. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In October, non - farm data was significantly weak, affected by the sharp reduction in federal government employment [1] - Inflation: The US CPI and core CPI in November showed significant cooling, providing room for future monetary policy adjustments and interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - GDP: The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, with strong consumer and business spending [2] 2. Exchange Rate - The report presents multiple figures related to non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, and the relationship between the US dollar index and other indicators, but no specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided [50][55][57] 3. Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures such as the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, and the returns in the past two weeks (by level and industry), but no specific analysis content is provided [63][65][67] 4. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings. Specific rating actions for each issuer are listed in the table [71][72]

2026年全球市场的整体前景如何？在货币政策分化、AI加速扩张与市场结构性分化交织的背景下，2026年的全球市场正站在韧性与风险并存的临界点。 摩根大通认为，财政刺激前置与企业、家庭资产负债表的稳健将支撑全球增长延续，但企业信心走弱、劳动力市场放缓以及通胀黏性，使衰退风险依然高 悬。 该行预计，股票市场受AI超级周期推动仍具上行空间，而利率、汇率、信贷与大宗商品走势将呈现更强分化特征，投资者需要在高度不确定的环境中重新 审视节奏、结构与风险承受能力。下文将详述摩根大通的观点。 2026年全球市场整体展望 未来一年，全球市场很可能将由多重力量的交汇所定义：货币政策的分化、人工智能的持续扩张，以及市场两极分化的不断加剧。这些因素叠加不断演变的 美国政策议程，将持续重塑全球宏观与市场格局。 摩根大通全球市场策略主管杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布贾斯（Dubravko Lakos-Bujas）表示： "我们展望的核心在于一种多维度的分化：股票市场在AI与非AI板块之间分裂，美国经济在强劲资本开支与疲软劳动力需求之间寻求平衡，家庭 消费也正在出现日益扩大的分化。" 综合来看，摩根大通全球研究认为，在财政政策前置发力等因素的支撑 ...

全球金融市场正屏息以待。美国11月非农数据12月16日即将公布。这一被誉为"市场风向标"的重磅数 据，不仅将直接引爆外汇、美股的剧烈波动，更将深度影响加密货币市场的资金流向与情绪周期。面对 确定性的事件与不确定性的结果，投资者应如何提前布局，将宏观波动转化为理性收益？ 前瞻：本次非农数据的关键看点与市场预期 市场普遍预测，本次非农就业人数增幅可能较前期有所放缓，而薪资增速与失业率的变化将成为更关键 的观察点。在2025年美国经济"软着陆"与通胀黏性并存的复杂背景下，一份"过热"的数据可能重新点燃 市场对美联储政策紧缩的担忧，导致风险资产承压；反之，一份"温和"甚至"偏弱"的数据，则可能强化 流动性宽松的预期，为加密货币等风险资产注入上涨动力。 关键在于，市场的解读往往超前于数据本身。加密市场作为一个全球性、高波动的资产类别，其短期价 格不仅反映非农数据本身，更反映了全球交易者对未来流动性、美元信用以及避险/逐险情绪的综合博 弈。 若市场陷入方向不明的震荡：平台丰富的现货交易板块（超1000个币对）为用户提供了灵活调整仓位的 空间。同时，理财赚币功能让闲置资产在波动市中也能持续产生收益。 若想借力专业判断：对于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed macroeconomic environment affecting the tin market, with U.S. economic resilience and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle boosting market optimism, while inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions pose risks [1] - The LME tin price closed at $42,835 per ton, up $105, reflecting a 0.25% increase, while domestic Shanghai tin futures showed a decline, closing at 336,110 yuan per ton, down 5,570 yuan, or 1.63% [1] - The global macroeconomic landscape is at a critical juncture, transitioning from recession fears to a re-evaluation of growth and liquidity, but the market is expected to experience high volatility due to competing bullish and bearish factors [1] Group 2 - Supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts remain, but expectations of resumed production in Myanmar and normalized tin exports from Indonesia are easing previous price-driving fears [1] - Demand is facing negative feedback due to high prices, with traditional sectors like electronic soldering showing weakness, despite long-term positive prospects in emerging fields like semiconductors and photovoltaics [1] - The tin industry association has indicated that current tin prices are disconnected from fundamental market conditions, calling for a more rational market approach, which reflects a consensus against high prices and provides a negative outlook for market expectations [1]

Group 1: Japan's Interest Rate Hike - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, marking the end of an ultra-loose monetary policy era [2] - The core logic behind the rate hike is persistent inflation, with Japan's core CPI exceeding the 2% target for 44 consecutive months, reaching a year-on-year increase of 3% in November 2025 [2] - Concerns about economic recession are rising, as Japan's GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q3 2025, and a second consecutive quarter of negative growth could lead to a technical recession [2] - Japan's government debt exceeds 260%, with interest payments accounting for 22.4% of the budget, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as the cost of debt servicing increases [2] Group 2: Global Liquidity Impact - The yen has been a key currency for global carry trades, and the interest rate hike could disrupt this arbitrage chain, potentially triggering a reversal of $30 trillion in yen carry trades and increasing global asset volatility [3] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 75 basis points in 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, shifting focus from anti-inflation to preventing economic slowdown [4] - The U.S. economy is characterized by "weak growth + high debt," with core CPI remaining sticky at 3.5% and rising unemployment rates indicating a cooling labor market [4] - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of rate cuts, with hawkish members advocating for maintaining rate hike options while dovish members support preventive rate cuts [5] Group 4: Global Capital Flow Dynamics - The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan has narrowed from 300 basis points pre-pandemic to approximately 300 basis points currently, which may lead to a temporary appreciation of the yen if the Fed continues to cut rates while the BOJ maintains a tightening stance [5] - In developed markets, funds are flowing back to European debt markets as the ECB maintains rates, while U.S. Treasuries regain attractiveness due to rate cut expectations [6] - Emerging markets like India and Indonesia benefit from interest rate differentials and growth resilience, becoming safe havens for capital, while Latin America and Africa face constraints due to debt pressures [6] Group 5: Asset Price Volatility - U.S. Treasuries are supported by short-term rate cut expectations, but long-term yields may rise due to increasing debt risks [7] - Japanese assets may face selling pressure if carry trades reverse, although the BOJ's bond purchasing operations could mitigate the impact [7] - Commodity prices are influenced by a weaker dollar supporting gold prices, while industrial metal demand is constrained by weak global manufacturing recovery [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma; if inflation does not decline as expected, it may need to accelerate rate hikes, but recession risks will limit policy options [9] - The Federal Reserve must balance between curbing inflation and avoiding recession, with potential for restarting quantitative easing if the labor market deteriorates significantly [9] - The divergence in monetary policy may become the new norm, challenging the dominance of the dollar and leading to differentiated performances among emerging economies [10][11]

12月17日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升29点至7.0573，中间价升值至2024年10月9日以来最高。 亚特兰大联储主席警告通胀黏性 反对过快降息 博斯蒂克在周二发表的一篇文章中披露，在12月9日至10日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上， 他不仅主张维持利率不变，还建议将利率水平一直保持到2026年。他指出，当前经济中存在的多重"顺 风因素"可能继续对通胀形成上行压力。尽管博斯蒂克今年并非FOMC的投票委员，在12月会议上，多 数具有投票权的官员最终仍支持将利率下调25个基点。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 非农后 美联储明年3月降息的概率有所上升 非农后，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为 75.6%。到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维持利率不变的概率为46.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概 ...

基本面总结： （来源：领盛Optivest） 1．日本制造业12月收缩步伐放缓 私人部门调查显示，日本制造业活动在12月的收缩步伐有所放缓，而服务业增长动能减弱，这对2025年底的经济前景构成压力。尽管企业对2026年的整体 信心仍然较强，但较上月有所回落，尤其是制造业企业，其不确定性主要源于全球经济形势、人口老龄化以及成本上升。 标普全球闪电日本制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）由11月的48.7升至12月的49.7，连续第六个月处于收缩区间，仍低于50这一扩张与收缩的分界线。标普 全球市场情报经济学副总监AnnabelFiddes表示，增长仍主要集中在服务业，制造业的生产和销售进一步走弱。 尽管12月工厂产出较前月仍显疲软，但商品需求下降的速度已放缓至一年半以来最低水平，这表明制造业可能正在趋于稳定。 2．日本通过1180亿美元额外预算，推进疫情后最大刺激计划 日本上议院周二通过了一项规模为18.3万亿日元（约1180亿美元）的额外预算，为首相高市早苗实施自新冠疫情以来最大规模的经济刺激计划扫清障碍， 尽管外界对财政状况存在担忧。 这项2025财年补充预算已于上周获得下议院批准，规模明显高于去年的13.9万亿 ...