全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人瑞·达利欧近日发出新的警告：美国就像一个火药桶，内战一触即发，能 否避免内战将取决于美国总统特朗普如何选择。 这位亿万富翁投资者表示，当前国家危机——从联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯枪击杀人事件到飙升的美国国 债——标志着美国"大周期"正过渡到一个更加暴力的阶段。 他在周一发表于 X 上的一篇题为"金钱、内战与国际战争、明尼阿波利斯及其他——从视角看"的长文 中警告说："美国现在就像一个火药桶。" 这篇文章大量引用了他 2021 年出版的《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则》一书，达利欧在书中分析了 500 年的历史，解释了为什么有些国家成功而有些国家失败，并描述了一个六阶段、80 年的周期，该周 期跟踪了一个社会的货币、国内和国际秩序的演变。 达利欧在X上的帖子中说，美国是远离还是更加靠近内战的边缘，这将取决于特朗普如何选择。 他写道："许多人正拭目以待，看特朗普是会继续战斗，将美国推向更加严重的内战边缘，还是会尝试 通过呼吁和平、承诺并展示司法系统会妥善处理枪击事件以及限制移民局的行动，将我们从内战边缘拉 回来。" 多年来，达利欧一直运用他的"大周期"框架来警告说，美国已经深深陷入他所谓的第五 ...

智通财经APP获悉，桥水基金创始人瑞·达里奥在最近接受采访时，对比特币在全球金融体系中的作用 做出了审慎的评估。他承认比特币对某些投资者而言是一种货币形式，但也指出其规模远不及黄金等传 统储备资产。达利奥建议投资者在多元化投资策略中，将5%至15%的资金配置于黄金。 达里奥在达沃斯接受采访时表示："我们可以通过比特币的规模来大致判断该货币的规模。对某些人来 说，它就是货币。但它的规模并不大。它不会被中央银行持有等等。" 达里奥宣称，全球货币秩序正在瓦解，他指出，人们正在从根本上改变对法定货币和债务作为可靠财富 储存手段的看法。达利奥表示："货币秩序正在崩溃。我所说的货币秩序指的是，法定货币和债务作为 财富储存手段，并没有像以前那样被各大央行持有。" 达利奥指出，黄金的卓越表现是这一转变的主要证据，并指出这种贵金属去年的表现甚至超过了科技 股。他解释说："去年波动最大的市场是黄金市场，远胜于科技市场。" 全球各大央行和主权财富基金越来越多地购买黄金作为多元化投资工具，他们并非将黄金视为投机性金 属，而是将其视为达利奥所说的"第二大储备货币"。这位亿万富翁投资者强调，持有美元债务的各方和 美国政府本身都日益彼此警 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries, particularly China, are leading to a significant reduction in trade dependencies, which is becoming a necessary reality for many exporters and importers [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Dependencies - Many exporters to the U.S. and importers from the U.S. are recognizing the need to drastically reduce trade ties with the U.S. due to the persistent nature of trade issues, regardless of tariff changes [2]. - There is a growing consensus among countries that reducing interdependence with the U.S. is essential, as they navigate trade, capital market, geopolitical, and military relationships [2]. Group 2: Economic Imbalances and Sustainability - The current global economic situation is characterized by unsustainable consumption patterns in the U.S., which is the largest consumer of manufactured goods and the largest producer of debt assets [3]. - The significant trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions, necessitating a reduction in these imbalances to avoid severe risks [3]. Group 3: Global Order and Political Challenges - The world is on the brink of a collapse in monetary order, domestic politics, and international relations, driven by unsustainable fundamentals that are measurable and evident [4]. - Historical parallels can be drawn from past events, indicating that the current chaos is a contemporary version of how monetary, political, and geopolitical orders evolve [4]. Group 4: Strategic Planning and Solutions - A calm, analytical, and coordinated approach is essential to address the challenges of imbalances and self-sufficiency, aiming for a "perfect" deleveraging and rebalancing [5]. - There is a proposed "three-part, 3% solution" to tackle U.S. government debt issues, which could yield better outcomes than the current trajectory [5].